"A good amount", that's a nice vague way of saying you'll never be satisfied.
Siming Chen vs Donny Mills
- Thread starter Joe_Jaguar
- Start date
He has himself convinced that the data doesn't support that the new top women play as well as the data says they do, and there's absolutely nothing you can show him that he won't make up some reason why that "particular" set of data doesn't prove the point.
You nailed this one! And at the same time trying to make lines using Fargo Rate when he himself doesnt believe it.
Jason
I was in the Mezz West State event stream chat last night during the finals.
Somebody brought up the fact that Siming's Fargo is better than Oscar's and Oscar's backer immediately chimed in saying he's got 50K ready to put Oscar in the box for that match.
Who do guys like in that match ?
Somebody brought up the fact that Siming's Fargo is better than Oscar's and Oscar's backer immediately chimed in saying he's got 50K ready to put Oscar in the box for that match.
Who do guys like in that match ?
Realistically? I probably favor Siming. Why? Well, to call a spade a spade, I think Oscar has a slight amount of dog in him, and if there is one thing that will bring out the dog in that type, it's a woman who plays strong enough to beat you, even if you're playing well.
That, and I don't think Oscar has been playing a lot lately. I saw him play in Leende, NL last year, and wasn't playing very well, on very loose tables.
this is about what I was asking in another thread..could these ladies' fargo ratings be a bit skewed, because they're mostly playing within an overall weaker field?
I looked up kristina and she's got 2000+ games in the system- if only 10% of those are against men, that wouldn't affect her fargo rating nearly as much as playing other gals, would it?
It has been said.. Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over... By the FOUNDER of the Fargorate system.. That the top women have many thousands of collective games against the top men, and (here's the key point, that all the ****wad misogynists out there refuse to just accept) THEY PERFORM PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AGAINST THE MEN, BASED ON THEIR FARGORATE.
So, goddamnit... STOP asking the same questions and thinking you are inventing some sort of way the math is flawed.
The math is NOT flawed. It's the perception that it's not possible that women are catching up, that's flawed.
Russ all you do is insult me. I have not insulted anyone. As I said before, the question has not been answered. Mike partially answered it in his last response to me. He asked me “I’m not sure what you are looking for” in his response. I will follow up with him in this thread later today, explicitly. After that, the question will be answered and we will all have the same info. I have to get ready for work now so I’ll have to do it later.
Russ is the uber-feminist in this board. Perhaps he thinks he'll get lucky one day, possibly for the first time, if he continues to talk like that.
"If there's one thing that will..., it's a woman..."
That was a stupid statement with NO basis, written just to suck up. That pink hat of yours is leaking into your brain.
It seems Siming is only good BECAUSE she's a woman in Russ's eyes.
She's a great player. Nobody here said she isn't. The fact that some keep elevating her win over DM, to mean that she can jump in the box with anyone, in any race is just fooling themselves. I personally feel she can hold her own against anyone her rating or lower. Those who think she can play anyone on the planet even need to stop. There is a group of elite players that will make even 780s look bad. Who knows, maybe one day she will be among them.
"If there's one thing that will..., it's a woman..."
That was a stupid statement with NO basis, written just to suck up. That pink hat of yours is leaking into your brain.
It seems Siming is only good BECAUSE she's a woman in Russ's eyes.
She's a great player. Nobody here said she isn't. The fact that some keep elevating her win over DM, to mean that she can jump in the box with anyone, in any race is just fooling themselves. I personally feel she can hold her own against anyone her rating or lower. Those who think she can play anyone on the planet even need to stop. There is a group of elite players that will make even 780s look bad. Who knows, maybe one day she will be among them.
My critique of where we are at with Fargo has been pretty much ignored which is telling.
The men's data consists of 8, 9, and 10 ball played with different racking rules and on all different tables giving the men a more "accurate" presentation of their "overall" skill level. Meanwhile, the women get their data coupled to the men by just playing one specific game. Therefore my contention is that their Fargo Rate is more of a 9 Ball rating than it is an overall rating. This is where I think the the slight elevation in rating is coming from.
Some of you need to think about this before commenting that this has been disproven multiple times because it has not!
The men's data consists of 8, 9, and 10 ball played with different racking rules and on all different tables giving the men a more "accurate" presentation of their "overall" skill level. Meanwhile, the women get their data coupled to the men by just playing one specific game. Therefore my contention is that their Fargo Rate is more of a 9 Ball rating than it is an overall rating. This is where I think the the slight elevation in rating is coming from.
Some of you need to think about this before commenting that this has been disproven multiple times because it has not!
As an add-on:
If the only game Shane played was big table 10 Ball with a template rack, do you egalitarian guys think his rating would be higher, lower, or the exact same?
If the only game Shane played was big table 10 Ball with a template rack, do you egalitarian guys think his rating would be higher, lower, or the exact same?
Direct request of Mr Page
1. Is the Siming Chen vs Shaun Wilkie match in the system?
2. For the below women, please list all of their matches against all men. Please be sure to include the scores! Start at #1 on the list, and go down. Top 20 would be great. If that is logistically too much, then please top 10, or at least top 5. But be sure to start at the top, not the bottom! We can skip Jasmin and Allison because we know they have a lot of games vs the men and it would probably be too much effort to list them.
Again, with a cherry on top, please start at the top and work your way down
Thats it. That’s all I want
I won’t go away if you answer this, but I at least won’t bug you for more dataThank you sincerely.
Direct request of Mr Page
1. Is the Siming Chen vs Shaun Wilkie match in the system?
2. For the below women, please list all of their matches against all men. Please be sure to include the scores! Start at #1 on the list, and go down. Top 20 would be great. If that is logistically too much, then please top 10, or at least top 5. But be sure to start at the top, not the bottom! We can skip Jasmin and Allison because we know they have a lot of games vs the men and it would probably be too much effort to list them.
Again, with a cherry on top, please start at the top and work your way down
View attachment 514959
Thats it. That’s all I want
Thank you sincerely.
That's too much work. Maybe someday. But not now.
We still need to put in the Siming/Wilkie and Siming/Tkatch matches. What were the scores again?
I watched some of that match. From what I saw, Wilkie played very well. Siming kept breaking dry or scratching on break. Easy to be lopsided when that happens.
I get your point that it is low. But you are exaggerating it. You cut the line right above Karen Corr, who is player 22 and has tons of games.
And your guess of 150 is exceeded by Siming Chen alone. Chezka has another 122. Xiao-Fang Fu has played 43 games against Morra, Ellerman, and Brady Golan.
I think this a good point. How can her rating change 8 points in a week? Look how Sky has played over the last several months and his rating has went up 3 or 4 points.
When she played Donny they said she was a 88% favorite to win. In the WPBA, the second rated player was rated at 756. This means she would have been at least a 90-95% favorite over the field. So how if your 95% favorite to win can the rating change that much in such a short time? I know it has to do with the amount of games won.
It turns out that does not skew things.
Think about it like this.
Imagine we start by deleting ALL games played between men and women. And we first do our optimization for just the men. What would we see?
The men would look like they do now. We always can shift the ratings up or down without affecting things. We could make SVB 900 if we want. Then everyone else would just go up 78 points. But let's leave it the way it is--just the men with SVB at 822.
Now, we optimize just the women. They would look about the way they do now. But we'd have to decide how to shift them up or down. Perhaps we decide to make Siming the same as SVB, 822. Then all the other women would be about 40 points above what you see now and there would be no reason to think a man's rating and a woman's rating can be compared. We just wouldn't know.
So we have Siming at 822, Karen Corr at 760 or so, Kristina Tkatch at 740 or so, and so on.
Now we start adding in the coupling games. And this is where people's intuition about what to expect may not be very good. Suppose the first match we add (and the only match) is Wilkie 12 Siming 4. For this match Siming is performing 167 points below Wilkie and there are no other forces between the groups. So Siming goes to 584, Karen to 520, and Kristina to 500. In other words this one match completely decided how the women are shifted compared to the men. It doesn't matter that Kristina has all her games against women or most of her games against much weaker women. Now add in another 141 Siming/men games and the 122 Chezka/men games and 43 Fu/men games i mentioned. Now there are about 300 games rather than 16 determining the big shift. At this point there is about a two thirds chance the shifting is right within 15 points. Siming could be at 770 or at 800. But she's pretty unlikely to be at 745 or 815.
Now we add in Karen Corr's couple thousand games against men. Now there is a pretty good chance the shift is right within maybe 6 points.
Now we add in many more thousands of games from top-100 women played against men. Melissa Herndon alone has played many hundreds of games against men on the Mezz West State tour. Oscar and Vilmos are both rated 773. Just against Oscar and Vilmos Melissa has played 73 games (23 wins 50 losses). that's performing 113 points below them, 660. Her rating is 663. And of course she's also played Rodney and Edgie Geronimo and Ellerman and Ernesto and and Butera and on and on. And Melissa has played a lot of 600 and 550 male players. And if she didn't beat them the way she is supposed to, that would affect the shift.
There are several more Melissa's. And then the bulk of 550 and 600-level women that play top women's events in the USA also go back and play in weekly and regional tournaments and league and so forth against the men.
There is a lot of coupling.