2025 Men's World 10-Ball Championship, Sept. 20-28 -- General Comments Thread

[HawaiianEye]

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Hmmm, probabilities get a little complicated here (at least for me).

For example:

Player A wins the 1st set 4-3
Player A loses the 2nd set 0-4
Player A wins the 3rd set 4-3

So, player A wins the match but only ~44% of the racks played. Are you saying the match win probabilities are not different than playing one long set?

I have always said that.

Play one long set and get it over with.

 

[sudocrushms]

Working on getting caught up with the dude's 10b and dudette's 9b opens and I've just got 1 thing to say so far:
DEAR GOD PREDATOR: USE A TEMPLATE!!!
Half the racks have been slugs...

Develop your own template, I don't care (hell, I'd probably buy it). I've been a Big Cat fan my whole pool life and I really wish they'd stop trying to make tables, racks, and balls. This Arc table is playing weird and the racks aren't good enough...

 

[markjames]

I really wish they'd stop trying to make tables, racks, and balls. This Arc table is playing weird

table bounces funny racks break funny and balls look funny

races to 4 are funny and a spot shot decider is not funny it’s silly

when they bring out predator shoes and gloves and hats and glasses and perfume and breakfast cereal i’ll probably just laugh but i won’t support those either

 

[sudocrushms]

table bounces funny racks break funny and balls look funny

races to 4 are funny and a spot shot decider is not funny it’s silly

when they bring out predator shoes and gloves and hats and glasses and perfume and breakfast cereal i’ll probably just laugh but i won’t support those either

Agree, but I will say their gloves are excellent, but that's subjective because they fit me perfectly. Hands are a pain to find a fit for.

 

[jay helfert]

Too much is definitely better than too little, but I have to wonder if it means more future conflict.

I get the sense WNT and WPA/Predator are moving to try to expand their calendars to get the best dates before the other organization does. Crowd each other out.

The calendar is especially crowded right now. We have:

WPA 10-ball (9/20 - 9/28)
Peri Open ((10/2 - 10/5)
Hanoi Open (10/7 to 10/12)
WPA 8-ball (10/9 - 10/13)
Reyes Cup (10/16 - 10/19)
Philippines Open (10/21 - 10/26)
*Qatar 10-ball World Cup (10/23 - 11/2)
WPM (November?)
International (11/17 - 11/22)

*Qualifying starts 10/23, but main event starts 10/28.

***

It will be very interesting to see who skips Hanoi and the Philippines Open and who goes to Qatar. Filler and SVB for sure.

Filler is going to WPA 8-ball and is shown in the promo for Qatar. I imagine most Predator players will follow suit.

Doesn't look like Filler will play any WNT-affiliated events until perhaps the International, which is also WPA sanctioned. It would seem he's a no-go for the Reyes and Mosconi.

SVB is also doing the WPA circuit. Both the 10-ball and 8-ball events and Qatar. Definitely no Philippines Open and probably no Reyes Cup. Mosconi seems doubtful too unless WNT changes/clarifies its rules.

The promo for Qatar shows Mario He, Kazakis and ... Wiktor Wielinksi.

The first promo of names from WNT for the Philippines Open lists

• Carlo Biado
• Johann Chua
• Francisco Sánchez Ruiz
• Jayson Shaw
• Anton Raga
• David Alcaide
• Duong Quoc Hoang
• Bernie Regalario
• Mickey Krause
• James Aranas

Gorst is not listed, but his face is on the promo. I assume he will be on the Reyes World Team (and Mosconi too).

One monkey don't stop no show!

 

[jay helfert]

They can be different or they can be the same. You have to look a little closer.

Let's start by actually doing the comparison that I think contributes to tripping people up a bit: race to 4 vs race to 9.
To make it concrete, let's talk about two players 50 points apart, like Jonas Souto and Fedor Gorst

Souto wins a race to 9 24% of the time
Souto wins a race to 4 32% of the time -- notably higher reflecting the bigger role of chance with a shorter race.

So a race to 9 is better for a championship event, where you want the match outcome to more reliably reflect the skill difference.

But what if instead of a race to 4, we do a best of 3 races to 4. If a lesser player is going to win because he got lucky, he's going to have to get lucky twice, which is less likely. It's not hard to figure out just how much less likely. We can flesh it out like this.
Souto can win by winning the first two race-to-4 sets. That has a probability of 32% X 32% [set score 2-0]
Or he can win by winning one of the first two race-to-4 sets and then winning the third one. That has probability 2*32%*32%*68% [set score 2-1]
Add those together and you get 24%

So a 50-point dog wins a race to 9 24% of the time, and he wins a best of 3 races to 4 also 24% of the time

They don't have to be the same. But they are (within a few tenths of a percent).

Here is another interesting thing. The format that's used in the elimination stage of world 10-Ball, best of 5 races to 4, is actually more discriminating than a straight race to 13!

I greatly prefer two formats that we used in the past. The first was two out of three sets of 9-Ball, each a race to seven. We used that in the Peter Vitalie Championship and it was very well received by players and fans. The the second was three out of five sets, each one a race to five. We used that in a major 9-Ball tournament in Vegas in the early 90's and it was also well received by players and fans. There was no controversy in either event as well.

I will only add this. Promoters/producers of professional pool tournaments need to learn how to promote! And pissing off half your fans is not how to do it. Take it from one who produced the biggest and best tournaments of the 1990's. Yes, I'm bragging, but if it's true it's not bragging.