Mosconi Cup 2025, Dec. 3-6, Alexandra Palace, London

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Fargo seems to be understating the difference between the teams in recent years. We should be seeing 11-9, 11-8 contests based on the numbers and we’re not.
Below is about what FargoRate predicts in terms of scores (heights are percentages). While 11-8 or so is the most likely score, it still has only about 10% chance of being realized.

So more likely Europe wins 11 to 4-or-fewer than Europe wins 11-8
More likely USA wins than Europe wins 11-to-7, 8, or 9

Another thing worth considering is these probabilities treat the games as statistically independent. That generally seems to be a pretty good assumption, but Mosconi Cup is as far from generally as we get...



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Below is about what FargoRate predicts in terms of scores (heights are percentages). While 11-8 or so is the most likely score, it still has only about 10% chance of being realized.

So more likely Europe wins 11 to 4-or-fewer than Europe wins 11-8
More likely USA wins than Europe wins 11-to-7, 8, or 9

Another thing worth considering is these probabilities treat the games as statistically independent. That generally seems to be a pretty good assumption, but Mosconi Cup is as far from generally as we get...



View attachment 868728
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I don't have the statistical knowledge to apply to an event with 10 players and doubles, but i wouldn't be shocked if 11-3 is in the margin of error when you take racks into account. Best I can do is by average: 12.8 FR delta between the teams, p = .522 in favor of Europe, they won .583 of the racks (63-45). That's a .061 deviation from expected, which i would say is reasonable. (Mike would probably cringe at my lack of sigfigs, and other errors, but there's a reason i don't do that for a living...)

At face value though:
- Pijus is the LOWEST rated player for Europe and he's #44ish (there's a lot of shared FRs in the 810s) in the world.
- There are 2 Americans that aren't even in the Top 100.

ALL these guys can run open racks, but when you start talking fringes is when you see the biggest difference between players.
- These tables are tight and fast. You need to be able to adjust and not miss balls.
- Eye test: USA isn't in the same universe tactically as the Europeans. That will - and has - cost a ton of racks.

So conclusively:
- You need to miss less
- You need to break better
- You need to play safe at the right time, and succeed
- You need to avoid fouls and selling out racks
Better players do those things better and more consistently.
Lots of little things add up in a hurry and not in a good way for the US.
Racks win % 58.3% Points/Matches won% 79% So yes the score should have been closer based on racks. USA lose number of points cos of those hill hill losses mainly cos of Tyler. Based on 58.3% win %, fairer score would be Europe 11-8.
USA also underperformed over long run. 3 wins in 19 years is about 16%. Pre event probability to win around 70% Europe USA 30% Based on 30% USA should have won 6x in 19 years. Even 6 wins, 13 losses in 19 years still dismal record . That is indication of long term difference in talent that requires long term planning. Short term tinkering may win few more cups but will not make much difference to long run result.
 
Below is about what FargoRate predicts in terms of scores (heights are percentages). While 11-8 or so is the most likely score, it still has only about 10% chance of being realized.

So more likely Europe wins 11 to 4-or-fewer than Europe wins 11-8
More likely USA wins than Europe wins 11-to-7, 8, or 9

Another thing worth considering is these probabilities treat the games as statistically independent. That generally seems to be a pretty good assumption, but Mosconi Cup is as far from generally as we get...



View attachment 868728
Well as an American my takeaway is that we are ahead of the curve.
Normal distributions are for pussies.
 
Indeed, Mosconi results are far from independent draws. It’s hard to imagine Styer missing the later 9 balls if he hadn’t missed the first one.
 
“How the hell is Hatch in the mix,” asks Iusedtiberich. Atlarge produces stats that say Hatch is forty six percent in games won at the MC. Which US player from this year’s team would you like to take at six-to-five against ANY of this year’s European players? You’d go broke. You’d have to hate your money.

(Perhaps you’d break even on SVB. But you had better be sure that THIS YEAR’S SVB shows up, not the usual MC imposter.)
 
“How the hell is Hatch in the mix,” asks Iusedtiberich. Atlarge produces stats that say Hatch is forty six percent in games won at the MC. Which US player from this year’s team would you like to take at six-to-five against ANY of this year’s European players? You’d go broke. You’d have to hate your money.

(Perhaps you’d break even on SVB. But you had better be sure that THIS YEAR’S SVB shows up, not the usual MC imposter.)
Just SVB and Fedor.
 
Maybe Fedor is like the opposite of Samson. Fedor grew hair on his face and lost all his strength at the MC.

If this is true, somebody buy him a razor!
 
Maybe Fedor is like the opposite of Samson. Fedor grew hair on his face and lost all his strength at the MC.

If this is true, somebody buy him a razor!
He's lost it 2 years in a row.

Again, we CAN win, we just cant even make it close. Really surprised at Tyler's misses this year. Unfortunate
 
Watching loved ones be picked apart on social media is never easy. Parents, family members, and close friends feel it deeply, often more deeply than the person being discussed. I get that. Ask me how I know. ;)

Recently, strong opinions were shared on a Window's Open podcast about a Billy Thorpe Jr.'s style, strength, and even his place on a future Mosconi Cup Team USA. Billy Thorpe Sr. (Billy Jr.'s dad) made a rant-filled post on Facebook sharing his thoughts about the Window's Open owner/founder (M.M.) for sharing his opinions about Billy Jr. Of course, he loves his son and is very proud. Opinions come with the territory in competitive sports, but they don’t always land lightly, especially when they involve someone’s child, sibling, or partner. The Thorpe family is incredibly proud of Billy, and rightly so, not just for how powerfully he plays pool, but for the man he is, which is family-oriented, hardworking, and entrepreneurial.

I happen to like and respect all parties involved here. I like the Window’s Open founder/owner (M.M.), and I also like the entire Thorpe family. That’s exactly why this is worth saying that reading disparaging words about people you love can tear a hole in your heart. Replying to an opinionated post you do not agree with rarely helps when it is about someone you love. It doesn't change minds, and it often amplifies the negativity. Silence, restraint, and perspective are learned skills. They take years to build, and I still struggle with it from time to time.

We can disagree. We can debate performance, style, and decisions, and people are entitled to their opinions, of course. But remembering the human beings and families behind the headlines and opinions goes a long way too. The pool culture is a small one, and we know each player much more so than we would, say, a famous golfer or baseball player. We interact with them and even their families on social media in this pool world. Sometimes the strongest response from a family member or loved one is no response at all.

A good example of this is how Joshua Filler handled the cyberbullying on social media when he was attacked viciously ad nauseum for changing his mind about which tournament he was going to compete in. He said nothing, responded to nothing, and continued on with his pool career full speed ahead. He is the epitome of social media maturity. A year later, he's back on the Mosconi Cup team. Silence is golden sometimes.
Amen and it seems that perhaps some of the mentally tougher players have been influenced by this.
 
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