AZers and the economic meltdown

jay helfert

Shoot Pool, not people
Gold Member
Silver Member
Sorry, Tate, that you find yourself in such difficult times, but this health scare in which, to use Donald Trump's accurate but disheartening terminology, we are in a war against an invisible enemy, is crippling the economy of much of the world, and is disabling business proprietors and employees alike. It is an unprecedented moment in most of our lives, though the very old may recall the polio and smallpox epidemics and how they once threatened their very existences. The proposed stimuli bills in Congress will help, be we all know they won't be enough for many to absorb the pronounced and sustained hit to their livelihoods.

I'm one of the lucky ones in a financial sense, as I've been retired since 2008 and have a lot of money, enough that what's going on has made little to no difference in my spending power. Contrastingly, in a safety sense, I'm one of the unlucky ones, because I'm a 60-something diabetic who has had heart disease and heart surgery. That means I have several of the extra-risk factors for Corona as defined by the World Health Organization.

Hence, for me, Corona might be a death sentence if I get it, so I'm scared sh****ss. Another challenge is that I live alone, and may have to do without any social contact with friends and family for a long time. On top of that, I live in a very populous part of Manhattan, New York, and the streets around me are still very crowded. It's not the best time to live in a population center, even though I only spend about an hour outside a day, most of it for my daily walk. To sum, it's not lost on me that I may die soon as the deck seems stacked against me.

All that said, I count my blessings. I can still get the food and medicine that I require. So far, I haven't contracted Corona, my family and friends have been very supportive of me by phone and by email, and I feel confident that I will be able to endure what could be months of unparalleled boredom at home as long as I can avoid getting Corona. I know I will find a way to pass the time.

There are about a dozen people in my life, not one of them family, to whom I promised long, long ago that if they ever need it, I'll assist them financially, not by lending to them, but by giving them money. A couple have already called upon me, and my best guess is that some others will soon need to take me up on it, and it is my pleasure. I think each of us that is in a position to be financially supportive of those closest to us should reach out to them.

I've never thought of myself as courageous, but the challenge of the moment is to become courageous, because danger is all around. I'll need to be very careful, too, and I trying my darndest to be just that.

As a business proprietor, Tate, you'll surely regret making the difficult decisions that will have negative consequences for your employees, but what business doesn't slim down when the business, for whatever reason, becomes less economically viable? That's how business works, but it always hurts to layoff staff members that are high performers, and times like these inevitably entail doing just that.

We all live with some very crude realities right now. We are scared, isolated, and we are less able to be supportive of all those who depend upon us. We cannot visit elderly relatives living in homes, and that's disconcerting, too. Last, and definitely least, all but those of us with a pool table at home will have to do without pool for the imaginable future, and that's not going to be easy.

Let's hope all the members of our AZB family get through these trying times. We are no longer Republicans and Democrats, no longer Liberals and Conservatives --- we are citizens of the world, and our fates are tied tightly together.

Stu, my friend, I am concerned about you. I would like you to consider having someone (the Concierge in your building or the Super) do your shopping for you. You can get your exercise indoors, which is what I'm doing and I'm ten years older than you. I love to walk in the park, going around the lake, but that's out for now. Sit this one out my friend. Watch TV, visit us on the internet and talk to your friends on the phone. I spend most of my time doing just that.

WE NEED YOU! Right here, giving us your meaningful insights into all things pool and beyond. You're not going anywhere so you can forget that! This too will pass and things will return to normal for all of us. If you can make it a couple of months (or less) until New York warms up, I'm pretty sure the worst of it will be over. Call me anytime night or day!

P.S. I've got all the best movies of the last 30-40 years on DVD. If you would like to watch any of them let me know and they will be on their way today via Priority Mail. I'm your Redbox. :smile:
 
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ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Pool room and non-alcoholic family oriented grill owner / operator in a rural western NC location for 24+ years. Pool room is now closed and take-out food orders are amounting to $200 - $300 a day as opposed to the roughly $1,000 a day normal volume, of which only 15% of that ($150) comes from pool table rentals.

We’ve had to cut way back on our labor and I’d honestly be losing less $ if we completely shut down, but I’m trying to keep a paycheck coming for our most valuable employees. Luckily, I own our building and house and don’t have a big rent or mortgage payment. My biggest immediate financial concern other than keeping our employees is whether I’ll be able to keep up my $3,000 / month health insurance premium payments. My wife and I are in our mid 60s and relatively healthy.

After just a 1 week hit, it’s hard to fathom how we can continue like this for a number of months without going in to major debt that will be very tough to be able to crawl out of, assuming we can survive this virus. Scary times for sure.
 

336Robin

Multiverse Operative
Silver Member
I thought about you. I try to eat out a meal a day at my local restaurants to
help keep them going. Not a good time hole up completely. I hope you make it
through this time and I hope that we find a way of coping with this disease. It's going
to make the way we view money, debt and terms of debt a lot different until we
defeat it with a vaccine. I've never seen a time like this when 1 person infects 10
others before he knows he is sick. Bad stuff. You can't be careful enough with
something like this.




Pool room and non-alcoholic family oriented grill owner / operator in a rural western NC location for 24+ years. Pool room is now closed and take-out food orders are amounting to $200 - $300 a day as opposed to the roughly $1,000 a day normal volume, of which only 15% of that ($150) comes from pool table rentals.

We’ve had to cut way back on our labor and I’d honestly be losing less $ if we completely shut down, but I’m trying to keep a paycheck coming for our most valuable employees. Luckily, I own our building and house and don’t have a big rent or mortgage payment. My biggest immediate financial concern other than keeping our employees is whether I’ll be able to keep up my $3,000 / month health insurance premium payments. My wife and I are in our mid 60s and relatively healthy.

After just a 1 week hit, it’s hard to fathom how we can continue like this for a number of months without going in to major debt that will be very tough to be able to crawl out of, assuming we can survive this virus. Scary times for sure.
 

BasementDweller

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I'm continually waffling between fear and hope. I'm grateful that I have a job that should keep me employed for at least 6 months -- worst case scenario. I currently have a manageable amount of debt but I'm considering using credit cards for everything in order to hoard as much cash as possible. I think I have enough cash to get me by for a good while. My heart is breaking for my in-laws who are missing their grand kids.

My 401k and IRA accounts??? I haven't even bothered to look at them. What's the point?

I'm basically preparing for the worst (the apocalypse) and hoping for the best.
 

336Robin

Multiverse Operative
Silver Member
I talked to my guy yesterday. He says the data he has based on 2007
crash says those that stayed in are better off than those that got out but this is worse
so the timeline to get the vaccine and return to normalcy is longer. Estimation is 2
yrs of hard times. It will pass if you can make it. I've decided if it plays out like this
every dime of earnings I get past the point of where I was from that point on is going
out of the market.



I'm continually waffling between fear and hope. I'm grateful that I have a job that should keep me employed for at least 6 months -- worst case scenario. I currently have a manageable amount of debt but I'm considering using credit cards for everything in order to hoard as much cash as possible. I think I have enough cash to get me by for a good while. My heart is breaking for my in-laws who are missing their grand kids.

My 401k and IRA accounts??? I haven't even bothered to look at them. What's the point?

I'm basically preparing for the worst (the apocalypse) and hoping for the best.
 

PoolFan101

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I wish you the best. You've been dealt a tough hand. I admire your courage but I'm beginning to regret starting this thread. I pray you'll get the help you need, hang in there, things can turn around on a dime.

Thank you Tate , I Appreciate it !
 

Eric.

Club a member
Silver Member
Well Chris, you know what line of work I'm in, lol...

In additional to client advisory services, my company maintains a proprietary trading account. Long story, short, the head trader (me) misjudged the depth and breadth of this market decline. It blew through my worst case risk projections. All of the company's available cash reserves and any incoming revenues have gone towards servicing margin calls. Luckily, today's market is a huge reprieve, kinda like the execution stay call from the governor...

Well, no layoffs of my valuable, cherished staff, yet, so there is that.


Eric
 

sjm

Older and Wiser
Silver Member
Stu, my friend, I am concerned about you. I would like you to consider having someone (the Concierge in your building or the Super) do your shopping for you. You can get your exercise indoors, which is what I'm doing and I'm ten years older than you. I love to walk in the park, going around the lake, but that's out for now. Sit this one out my friend. Watch TV, visit us on the internet and talk to your friends on the phone. I spend most of my time doing just that.

WE NEED YOU! Right here, giving us your meaningful insights into all things pool and beyond. You're not going anywhere so you can forget that! This too will pass and things will return to normal for all of us. If you can make it a couple of months (or less) until New York warms up, I'm pretty sure the worst of it will be over. Call me anytime night or day!

P.S. I've got all the best movies of the last 30-40 years on DVD. If you would like to watch any of them let me know and they will be on their way today via Priority Mail. I'm your Redbox. :smile:

I was in full shut down mode until about a week ago, leaving home for only about 20 minutes a day, but I saw both my weight and my blood pressure creeping upward, much as they did when I had a spinal injury last summer that largely shut me down. I knew I had to take action.

The inactivity issue is a very big one for me, and I find myself unable to stay active while in my apartment, in large part because of my physical limitations. I discussed the matter with my doctor, my physical therapist and my family members. They all felt that I should take a daily walk, so I've been doing so, but I'm still indoors about twenty three hours a day.

Anyway, my valued friend, thanks for your kind words of concern and I will, in all likelihood, call you at some point. I'll give some thought to the movies I might want to see.

Be safe and be well, Jay, and the same goes for all the wonderful people who make AZB such a special place to visit.
 

hang-the-9

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I would like this to be about pool, but it's really about us AZ members. We might bicker but we're pool fanatics and brothers and sisters.

I figure my company is potentially facing no income for the next six to seven months. My investments have taken a hit that could buy a nice house or two. We will survive because we're prepared for it, but what if we weren't?

My business associates are all getting "furloughed" which is the new word for laidoff. They're thinking a couple of months. How are you being affected? Are you apprehensive? What are you doing to help your situation?

I am not too worried about stock market, it will come up again. Trick is not to panic. All the top investors use down markets to buy in, the panicked chickens run out to sell and loose money. Unless of course your investments are in companies that will have a hard time recovering.

Luckily most in my family is working either for retailers (like me) or in medical field (my two daughters and wife) so we are pretty insulated from what is happening.
 

Black-Balled

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Hang tight, my azbros.

I regretfully believe we are in the very early stages of this matter.

If a 3 legged dog can wag its g-dang tail, eventually we will too.
 

jeffj2h

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
My wife and I planned to put our house on the market 8 days ago, but put that on pause.

We've been planning to downsize now that the kids are getting older, and I spent the last 2 months fixing the house up for sale. I'm not sure what this will do to the real estate market. Maybe this summer will be a hot market, as people get out of lockdown.

I chronicled my pool room evolution in the Show Us Your Home Rooms thread: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=5322525&postcount=968
 

Z-Nole

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
As the great Philosopher Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." I'm afraid the punches will be fast and furious for the next six months, so good luck fellas.
 

jeffj2h

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Something I've done is call up friends and talk, joke, discuss old times. Stay social. I've called friends and the next thing you know we've been on the phone for 3 hours.
 

TATE

AzB Gold Mensch
Silver Member
Well Chris, you know what line of work I'm in, lol...

In additional to client advisory services, my company maintains a proprietary trading account. Long story, short, the head trader (me) misjudged the depth and breadth of this market decline. It blew through my worst case risk projections. All of the company's available cash reserves and any incoming revenues have gone towards servicing margin calls. Luckily, today's market is a huge reprieve, kinda like the execution stay call from the governor...

Well, no layoffs of my valuable, cherished staff, yet, so there is that.


Eric

It's not your fault. It's obvious to me that no society was prepared for a highly contagious, deadly pandemic and what it would do to society. Even our legal contract force majeure clauses, which mention natural disasters and war, say nothing of pandemics. This kind of thing is so incredibly stressful to the investment industry. Besides the market losses, when wealthy people lose money in the stock market, they stop discretionary spending and it hurts the economy.

For those who would like to know, Eric knows his stuff. He advised me to buy Apple after the 2008/9 meltdown, before it took off again. I asked him for investment advice at that time and he said "Just Apple, buy it and hold it. The only advice I will give you is buy Apple!" Eric was right and I made some money on that tip before I sold it too early in order to ease out of tech. And he's careful, always advising me to put stop losses on my holdings.

Investors are not trained to sell or advise people to sell because betting against the stock market has been a long term losing strategy. Also, when it goes up you really have to be in it or get left behind. Usually these markets bounce back in months, not years, but these sort of declines, which was an avalanche of selling, wipe out margin buyers and leveraged funds who typically get multiples of the actual gains or losses and have to cover losses with cash reserves.

I don't think too many people saw this large of a crash, although there were a small few who predicted it. The problem is we hear these doomsday scenarios wrongly so many times, we turn a deaf ear to crash predictions. This next week or two should form a bottom and maybe the selling will stop, but we need some good news first. We need progress against the illness. We need a glimpse of life as we knew it a month ago. We need to know our financial system is on solid ground. We need faith. The first quarter is all red ink and I think everybody expects the major write downs and dividend cuts coming. The weaker companies will be broke.

I hope we learn from this how to be better prepared for the next one. If we can hang on and keep our cool, there will be sunny days ahead. Hang in there Eric! Your skills, experience, knowledge and wisdom are needed now more than ever.
 
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Geosnooker

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
We’re in our Mid 60’s. Western Canada.

Wife and I haven’t had any social contact the last 12 days or so. We have a 3 month supply of groceries and household goods.

I play play various games on my Snooker table. Hike, cycle, jog. I have a world class trout fishing river out my back door. Like to birdwatch. Garden fanatic and happy Spring is almost here.

Stock portfolio down but most of our assets in cash savings. However, at a point in life where I’m second guessing ‘money’. Just need enough to lead the lifestyle we have and enjoy. Don’t need ‘more’. I’ve always been frugal but for me now more of a character thing than some necessity.

As for younger people. This shake up might be good. Get rid of complacency. I was in Scouting all my life and always lived by ‘Be Prepared’.

We look forward to going dancing, etc when this is all over but ok in the meantime.
 
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Geosnooker

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Something I've done is call up friends and talk, joke, discuss old times. Stay social. I've called friends and the next thing you know we've been on the phone for 3 hours.

Interesting you say this. My wife is in more contact with families, old friends, etc than ever. Cousins, classmates from her school days back in the UK. We’ll have a full calendar next time we visit.

A lot of superficial ‘stuff’ in society has been stripped away. As you say ‘stay social’ even if at a distance.
 

Eric.

Club a member
Silver Member
I hope we learn from this how to be better prepared for the next one. If we can hang on and keep our cool, there will be sunny days ahead. Hang in there Eric! Your skills, experience, knowledge and wisdom are needed now more than ever.

Thanks for the kind words, Chris. I definitely won't be going anywhere, I'm the majority owner of this little shop of ours.


Eric >boss, cook, go-fer
 

jay helfert

Shoot Pool, not people
Gold Member
Silver Member
As for me, after being rich and poor a few times in my life I decided this last time to wise up and hold onto my dough. For the last twenty odd years I've lived a very frugal life and saved all the money I could. Originally I was in the market pretty deep and after 2009 I began selling off, completely unloading by 2016. I am a partner in quite a few pieces of Southern California real estate and that has worked out better than I could have ever hoped.

The value of our properties will go down, just like they did in 2009, but the rents won't. My concern is that some of our tenants (all residential) will lose their jobs and be unable to pay the rent. There is a freeze on foreclosures here so I would just have to bite the bullet and let it go. I wouldn't evict anyone under these circumstances anyway.

I have saved enough cash that we will never go hungry, even if my income dries up completely. I have a lot to be thankful for and I know it. Right now I look for local charities that I can contribute to. We gave away a bunch of food today and will continue to donate whatever we can. $100 goes a long way to buy food for the local food banks. They make good use of the money and reach the people that really need the help.
 
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KenRobbins

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
My wife and I realized after the order of staying home and avoiding everyone, our lifestyle hasn't been changed. We're financially good and our only issue is not getting some supplies as easy as everyone is already experiencing. My wife has Parkinson's disease, so my main fear as of now is her catching this virus. I haven't left the house in almost 3 weeks and getting ready to run out to get some groceries in the next couple days.

If we run out of toilet paper, I'm building a homemade bidet.
 

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Kickin' Chicken

Kick Shot Aficionado
Silver Member
hey Chris;

I know your industry and you, personally, have taken quite a hit but hang in there brighter days are ahead. Happy that you had the instinct and ability to fill up a "war chest". On a completely separate note, that Ducati Scrambler desert edition you posted in the Becue thread is a badass. Hope you get to enjoy the heck out of it. I had a much less impressive but no less fun 67 Honda Scrambler 305 when I was in high school. Fun memories! Stay safe, sir.

@ Eric: NOBODY could have seen this magnitude of market meltdown. Glad you still have your staff and good luck going forward.

@sjm: Hey Stu. Like you I have to mark "X" on way too many of the high-risk-profile boxes and I figure if I get covid-19 it will very possibly deal me a knock out punch. That said, I'm pretty well battle tested, healthwise, and so I wouldn't go without a good fight. :wink: Obv, for guys like you and me, our best strategy is to avoid this potential killer.

I want to share with you a couple of tips that you (and others) might find helpful.

The first one is regarding shopping. You mentioned that you are walking distance to Whole Foods in your Manhattan neighborhood. In order to avoid that exposure risk altogether, you can either request curbside service or another terrific option that I just learned about is a company called www.Instacart.com In fact, I was watching one of the business channels yesterday and they announced Instacart was looking to hire 300,000 workers. My sister told me about them last week, she got a same-day $117 shopping trip done by them and their entire fee was $5 plus a built in tip of $5.60. When they bring your order to your door you can do whatever disinfecting strategy you feel appropriate before bringing the food in. I have been putting on an N95 mask with groceries and even mail and opening everything in my garage and putting all bags, boxes and envelopes into the outside trash can, then thorough purell. I know it sounds extreme but I'm looking to put all the odds I can in my favor. ;)

The second suggestion is to do with what you said about the isolation aspect and the long term effect. This is a tough one for me too. It's only about a week and I'm going stir crazy. Can't imagine if it becomes months but it just might. Also, like you, I'm blessed to have a home table to occupy some of the time. In fact, I've been thinking that there's no reason for those of us with a home table that we shouldn't come out of this up a ball in our games. :smile:

As far as social isolation goes, I'm not tech savvy at all but my eldest son suggested I load Whatsapp on my phone and within 5 minutes I was doing a face to face with him and the grandkids and we can invite more people in if we want. What a great way to stay in touch with family and friends. I know for many of the younget guys they're probably thinking where you been old-timer, we've been facetiming and whatsapping for years. Well, the reality for some old farts like me is I never really had a need for such a technology until now, but now that I have it loaded, I might start driving some friends and fam members nuts with it. :thumbup::cool::thumbup2:

To the main topic of this thread, I was not in the stock market at all when the bottom fell out; I'm certainly grateful for that. I'm in a stand alone house down a very long driveway in CT and feel good about being in such a quiet spot. Ran my own business for 27 yrs, sold it due to health issues and am now retired on disability though I was getting close to retirement age anyway. And oh yeah, due to Putin and Saudi Arabia arguing we now have gas hovering around 2 bucks a gallon. Heard somewhere in TX was under a dollar. :eek: Great, gas is cheap as dirt right when we have to shelter in place. :rolleyes::angry:

stay safe everyone.

best,
brian kc
 
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