I saw Johnny play several times in his prime in the 1970's. He often ran with Jersey Red. Back then, he was splitting time between NY and Las Vegas. I didn't get to know him well until the last ten years of his life, when he lived exclusively in NY and played out of Amsterdam Billiard Club on the upper west side of Manhattan. If Neil was often with him, it's a safe bet that I know Neil, though I can't quite place him.
Johnny did not run a rack without hitting a rail with the cueball without a few tries, but he's the only guy I can ever think of that practiced it.
For someone who doesn't practice it and wants to run 43 balls as stated this way, unless they are a true superstar of the game, I still think it's worse than a 1000 to 1 proposition, so an even money bet for two tries is just a little out there.
There aren't many in the world who should take this bet even at 100 tries.
Hey SJM! Just wanted to chime in here with my personal experience. You and I felt very similarly - I initially estimated the odds at approximately 300-1 I believe.
Curious, I went to try it. On my second attempt, I almost ran a 28 (at 19, my cueball rocked in a groove and grazed a rail; I know this doesn't count, but thought I'd mention that the 'run' continued through the end of the rack).
I found two things: the first is that it teaches you to play the rack in very unorthodox (and probably flat-out incorrect) ways, with far too many balls needing to be played uptable. The second is that there's definitely a learning curve here.
After experimenting with it a bit, I'd estimate that the truly top players in the game - with time to practice/learn - are likely somewhere in the 10-1 to 15-1 range.
Also of note - the player taking the bet needs to mandate it's on a super soft table. You need the ability to have the cueball half an inch off the rail, shooting an object ball frozen to the rail maybe six inches from the pocket, and basically hit the shot straight in and still have it fall.