IMO, this break and run stat is misleading. Someone could be playing lights outs and never run a rack. For instance, the person could be breaking good, but just can't get a shot on the one.
9 ball runout % for pro men
- Thread starter scot n Texas
- Start date
With a legit rack, I'm not sure if anyone on earth is 50%+ runout from the break.
The statistics that Bob Jewett’s presented are the best estimates that can be used to determine when you are approaching the Professional level of play. Calculating the averages for the three tournaments he presented:
From the break = 19% (2 out of ten attempts)
Ball made on the break = 33% (3 out of ten attempts)
With ball in hand = 65% (6.5 out of ten attempts)
The best estimator for ability to play with the pros is probably the last one. If you can run seven out of ten racks with ball in hand at the practice table you are ready to play with the pros.
These stats are from the 1980s but from what I have seen of recent tournaments I doubt that the pros are much better today. These stats are very useful for gauging when one is ready for upper level tournaments and are probably good estimtors for one's ability to play in regional tournaments etc. I had been wondering when it would be worthwhile to enter some of the regional tournaments. With these stats it seems that I now have a good method for evaluating my own development over time.
Thanks Bob.
From the break = 19% (2 out of ten attempts)
Ball made on the break = 33% (3 out of ten attempts)
With ball in hand = 65% (6.5 out of ten attempts)
The best estimator for ability to play with the pros is probably the last one. If you can run seven out of ten racks with ball in hand at the practice table you are ready to play with the pros.
These stats are from the 1980s but from what I have seen of recent tournaments I doubt that the pros are much better today. These stats are very useful for gauging when one is ready for upper level tournaments and are probably good estimtors for one's ability to play in regional tournaments etc. I had been wondering when it would be worthwhile to enter some of the regional tournaments. With these stats it seems that I now have a good method for evaluating my own development over time.
Thanks Bob.
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These stats are based on 11 players over an unknown number of games. It is logical to conclude that most of the luck factors have been randomized in more than 100 games.
If we had the actual results a reliability estimate could be derived along with a standard error of estimate. Given the abilities involved a preliminary guess is that these stats might be accurate to within one game of the best estimators.
That is each estimate plus or minus one game is probably a real estimate of how well one should be able to play before matching up with these players.
On the low side, and removing the luck factors, one should be able to run six of ten racks with ball in hand before considering entering a national tournament.
These stats could also be used to estimate how much weight is needed if you are thinking about gambling wth a pro.
If we had the actual results a reliability estimate could be derived along with a standard error of estimate. Given the abilities involved a preliminary guess is that these stats might be accurate to within one game of the best estimators.
That is each estimate plus or minus one game is probably a real estimate of how well one should be able to play before matching up with these players.
On the low side, and removing the luck factors, one should be able to run six of ten racks with ball in hand before considering entering a national tournament.
These stats could also be used to estimate how much weight is needed if you are thinking about gambling wth a pro.
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I couldn't disagree more with this.
Winning 7 out of 10 racks, with ball in hand (assuming 9 ball), is the equivalent of beating the ghost 7-3. I know many, many people that can beat the gjost 7-3 and are not even close to "p[laying with the pros". The ghost is only a measure of offense (ball pocketing and position play). It doesn't take into other factors of the game such as safety play, kicking and breaking ability, all things that "pros" do very well at.
Eric
When the player can run 6 out of ten racks they have probably also learned to play safes and kicks. The estimates are just that, estimates, and are only a place to begin evaluating one's abilities.
It can be assumed that anyone who reaches this stage of development has or should have also emphasized the other components of playing.
Many people say one thing and do another. Most people that I know do not keep records or their ability to play. They tend to remember their best games and matches. The stats presented here are for a player's averages over an extended period of time. They are goals for us lesser mortals and for those who are serious about what they need to learn. They are a place to begin.
If your buddies can usually run 6 of ten games with ball in hand perhaps they should consider further effort to play among the pros. My bet is that most people have not kept stats on their own average play.
Several years ago I wrote about a game named Olympic 9-Ball in which the player takes ball in hand after the break. A match is pure offense and consists of ten one inning games. People would try it and then quit because they soon learned that their average was in the range of 4 - 5 balls. They did not want to know and they did not want others to know how well they really played. Most people said their average run was between 8 and ten balls for a one inning game yet they could not play that well in a match. Pool is one of those sports where we can, and do, discount our averge play as due to bad luck. We prefer to remember our best matches and think this is our usual, normal or average level of play.
All that is discussed here is ability. Personal characteristics such as desire to compete and ability to sustain concentration are different matters. From the little I have learned it does not take a great deal of effort to learn to kick and play safes after the basics have been mastered.
It can be assumed that anyone who reaches this stage of development has or should have also emphasized the other components of playing.
Many people say one thing and do another. Most people that I know do not keep records or their ability to play. They tend to remember their best games and matches. The stats presented here are for a player's averages over an extended period of time. They are goals for us lesser mortals and for those who are serious about what they need to learn. They are a place to begin.
If your buddies can usually run 6 of ten games with ball in hand perhaps they should consider further effort to play among the pros. My bet is that most people have not kept stats on their own average play.
Several years ago I wrote about a game named Olympic 9-Ball in which the player takes ball in hand after the break. A match is pure offense and consists of ten one inning games. People would try it and then quit because they soon learned that their average was in the range of 4 - 5 balls. They did not want to know and they did not want others to know how well they really played. Most people said their average run was between 8 and ten balls for a one inning game yet they could not play that well in a match. Pool is one of those sports where we can, and do, discount our averge play as due to bad luck. We prefer to remember our best matches and think this is our usual, normal or average level of play.
All that is discussed here is ability. Personal characteristics such as desire to compete and ability to sustain concentration are different matters. From the little I have learned it does not take a great deal of effort to learn to kick and play safes after the basics have been mastered.
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I agree. I have beat the ghost many times 7-3 and know I can not hang with the pros. Like I said above When you play the 9-ball ghost w/o bih you loose one game if you miss, then you break again. If you're playing a top pro like SVB in a tournament you miss you might sit for 3 to 5 racks and when you do get a shot you better be able to hit it and make it or get a lock-up safe or you're back in the chair again. Johnnyt
Sorry for the confusion, but the stats were for the complete tournaments. I just listed the top finishers to give a hint of the level of players.
The main difference between the ROw/BIH stats and playing the ghost is that you rarely play safe against the ghost but you do against your tournament opponent.
A factor that has changed since 1987 is the rack. The current use of tight racks assures that a ball will be made a large fraction of the time. I suppose the stat to look at then is "run out after making a ball on the break" which is about 33% for the tournaments listed.
Which is why this is topic is open for discussion.
It's apparent that you are hypothesizing. Before you give other advice on your viewpoint, do you have any proof to go wit hyour hypothesizes? (edit-hypothesis)
As I said, there are many people, even on this forum that can beat the ghost 7-3 (9 ball). I can. While, I may not do that every time, I will bet that I can beat the ghost, if I'm shooting good, by a score of 7-3, or 6-4. Thing is, I do get a chance to play against "pros" somewhat regularly and I am nowhere close to "playing with them". I don't feel like going into a long winded dissertation why, but it's fact.
Someone else that can beat the ghost 7-3 is our own Tate. I believe he did it on video because someone called him out a few years ago. Ask Tate is he thinks he is able to "play with the pros"?
Theres a difference between hypothesizing and knowing. If you can't get it, then we'll just disagree, Joe.
BTW- the part I highlighted is a completely ridiculously naive thing to say, in my opinion.
Eric
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A few things to think about.
To make a pool shot we have a 4.5” target and probably a 9” window for position. This of course depends on many things and is only a general statement.
To make safety there is at least a 12” target (often much more) and a 6- 8" window (often much more) for position behind two or more balls. Again, this is a general statement.
During a tournament I have often been surprised that a pro did not take a shot I would have played and elected to take the easier route to a safety. Seems he is better at playing for the win and knows when to trade 50% shot for a 100% safe because the safe was easier and allowed him to wait for a better chance to run out.
Some pro safes are nothing more than a stop shot to lock the other player on an object ball.
It is often easier to play a safe than some shots and this is why the pros elect it.
Ball tracks are well known and it is only a matter of learning them. The track through the middle of the table is well known. Using the 45 degree angle and the route through the middle of the table as presented by Tom Ross simplifies many cue ball rolls. See Dr Dave’s 2nd DVD.
Little Joe V presents a simplified and reliable kicking system. Freddie the Beard also has many good contributions here that are reliable.
It is true there are some (less than 25%) safeties and safety escapes that are amazing. But that leaves the other 75% of shots that were easier than potting and position.
I am not discounting the abilities of the pros to play safe and to kick as needed. I am suggesting that ability to pocket and get position consistently is more difficult. People who are not pros probably do not practice safeties and kicking as much as they should.
To make a pool shot we have a 4.5” target and probably a 9” window for position. This of course depends on many things and is only a general statement.
To make safety there is at least a 12” target (often much more) and a 6- 8" window (often much more) for position behind two or more balls. Again, this is a general statement.
During a tournament I have often been surprised that a pro did not take a shot I would have played and elected to take the easier route to a safety. Seems he is better at playing for the win and knows when to trade 50% shot for a 100% safe because the safe was easier and allowed him to wait for a better chance to run out.
Some pro safes are nothing more than a stop shot to lock the other player on an object ball.
It is often easier to play a safe than some shots and this is why the pros elect it.
Ball tracks are well known and it is only a matter of learning them. The track through the middle of the table is well known. Using the 45 degree angle and the route through the middle of the table as presented by Tom Ross simplifies many cue ball rolls. See Dr Dave’s 2nd DVD.
Little Joe V presents a simplified and reliable kicking system. Freddie the Beard also has many good contributions here that are reliable.
It is true there are some (less than 25%) safeties and safety escapes that are amazing. But that leaves the other 75% of shots that were easier than potting and position.
I am not discounting the abilities of the pros to play safe and to kick as needed. I am suggesting that ability to pocket and get position consistently is more difficult. People who are not pros probably do not practice safeties and kicking as much as they should.
The problem is that all of that....only looks good on paper.
I still think you over trivialize a good safety and the ability to execute it well.
Again, without going into long dissertations, kicking is NOT as simple as "just knowing the routes". Tables play differently (cloth old or new, balls polished or not, etc). That's just the beginner stuff. To play pro level kicks, you better be able to make the hit almost always AND in many cases, be able to kick with a purpose i.e. kick safe. At the pro level, just hitting the ball aint good enough.
The bottom line is that having some knowledge vs. having knowledge AND the ABILITY to execute it consistently is the ocean that separates good players from top players.
We all know every shot, every play...from the bench.
Eric
I still think you over trivialize a good safety and the ability to execute it well.
Again, without going into long dissertations, kicking is NOT as simple as "just knowing the routes". Tables play differently (cloth old or new, balls polished or not, etc). That's just the beginner stuff. To play pro level kicks, you better be able to make the hit almost always AND in many cases, be able to kick with a purpose i.e. kick safe. At the pro level, just hitting the ball aint good enough.
The bottom line is that having some knowledge vs. having knowledge AND the ABILITY to execute it consistently is the ocean that separates good players from top players.
We all know every shot, every play...from the bench.
Eric
I think I can break and run over 50% of the time easily.
With a neutral racker? I know you can with rack your own.
Not rack your own. A tight rack and not patern racked. Johnnyt
Are there stats from Donny's TAR match against SVB? I would be interested to know what his B&R % was with RYO.