Betting odds for the 2007 World Pool CHampionships

:D Good idea Dimes, look forward to your odds:)

Yes, a spread may be difficult to achieve as pool isn't a big market, fully understand what you're saying.

We had a similar perception last year from a lot of people who believed SJ's odds were over generous in lots of areas. However I didn't see many people collecting winning bets.

As it happens by some miracle I did choose Ronnie myself (pretty sure there is a thread with AZB posters tips somewhere) but I didn't back him with money as I rarely bet these days for fear of lapsing into excesses of many years ago. Sod's law:(
 
memikey said:
... I say "if betting" because, for the record, on a quick calculation this overall book demonstrates appalling overall value and is so heavily 'over-round' in the bookmakers favour that it would do justice to having been compiled by Ebeneezer Scrooge. ...
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If the bets are evenly spread out (more on the favorites and less on the long shots), SJ expects to pay back about 60% of what's wagered, based on the current odds table. It's a simple enough calculation, and one they probably don't want you to do. But if a player is underestimated by a factor of 2, jump on him!
 
Hell, I'd rather get my dough down than complain about any slights! Might feel OK having $50 each on Orcollo, Hohmann and Niels ... any problems dealing with these guys from the U.S.? Thought some legal loopholes had been closed.
 
traa89 said:
where are the championships this year?
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Manila. The WPA (World Pool-Billiard Association, the world governing body for pool) has a calendar on their web site: http://www.wpa-pool.com/ The tournament is November 3-11.

For an article from Matchroom at the time the selection was agreed to, see
http://www.matchroomsport.com/articleDetail.asp?intArticleID=269 President Arroyo was present for the signing.

The 2006 event had 89 million viewers in Asia compared to 53 million for the 2005 event (which I think was in Taiwan).
 
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The SJ odds is like a double edged sword, some players might have been
over valued while a handful were under appreciated. I might get some flak
for saying this but Busti at 14-1? Don't get me wrong, I love Busti but to peg
him at 14-1 is somewhat ridiculous. I am a Filipino myself but I saw some
Filipino odds that's quite questionable. Gomez (50-1), Gallego (50-1), Luat
(66-1), Pena (66-1), Kiamco (66-1), Morta (100-1) and Valle (66-1) are some
of the few that they got wrong. They should've been in the middle of the pack,
not at the upper floors together with the favorites and the dark horses.

I would rather put my money on a young up-and-coming upstart (SVB 40-1),
an old guard (Parica 100-1) or a former US open champ (Schmidt 175-1) than
just to toss some money around for them because I am a fellow Filipino.

I guess it really depends on the influx of action a certain player gets (or
not get) to really determine their true worth. If you think a player is not
being rated fairly, then if I were you, I'll lock up my bet early before the
railbird handicappers starts ruining your action! :D
 
Hmm. He's had a first and two seconds at the WPC, including a second last year, but Souquet, who has won every significant nine ball title the sport has to offer, is 25-1.

Pei Wei chang at 66-1 seems a little hard to believe, too, as he won the gold medal for nine ball at the World Games and has finished second at the WPC.

These are the odds of sentiment. Efren is the favorite if they play eight ball or one pocket, but this is nine ball, and I'd be very surprised if he won. Bustie has not snapped off a single nine ball title in a major event having a large, internationally diverse field, in his entire career, yet he's the co-favorite.

Seems to me Orcullo should be the favorite. Just my thinking, of course.
 
here's my picks:
Favourite - Alex Pagulayan, he won japan open and has been playing real well. Plus he's probably gonna be mad at the whole san miguel thing and come out completely focused for the wpc.

Dark Horse - Chao Fong Pang, this guy is always good.

Long Shot - Cheng Kuo Po, i only consider him a longshot based on the odds provided. 50/1 seems a bit wrong to me, i would say he's around 35-40.

I also wanted to know why immonen was ranked so highly, he has been struggling recently.
 
sjm said:
Hmm. He's had a first and two seconds at the WPC, including a second last year, but Souquet, who has won every significant nine ball title the sport has to offer, is 25-1. ...
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Maybe Stan James is (are) thinking there will be a lot of home-town punters.
 
sjm said:
Hmm. He's had a first and two seconds at the WPC, including a second last year, but Souquet, who has won every significant nine ball title the sport has to offer, is 25-1.

Pei Wei chang at 66-1 seems a little hard to believe, too, as he won the gold medal for nine ball at the World Games and has finished second at the WPC.

These are the odds of sentiment. Efren is the favorite if they play eight ball or one pocket, but this is nine ball, and I'd be very surprised if he won. Bustie has not snapped off a single nine ball title in a major event having a large, internationally diverse field, in his entire career, yet he's the co-favorite.

Seems to me Orcullo should be the favorite. Just my thinking, of course.
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exactly my thoughts, European biased and Ralf 25-1 I don't think so!

Ronnie is an interesting addition. However given his dislike for travel esp in Asian I wouldn't be surprised if his back, new,foot,finger,or toe nail excuse doesn't flare up again! :rolleyes:
 
Bob Jewett said:
If the bets are evenly spread out (more on the favorites and less on the long shots), SJ expects to pay back about 60% of what's wagered, based on the current odds table. It's a simple enough calculation, and one they probably don't want you to do. But if a player is underestimated by a factor of 2, jump on him!
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Yes, this book is a 160% betting percentage as it stands Bob. For anyone reading who may not understand betting percentages as Bob does this is the very rough equivalent of you tossing one dice and wanting to bet on the number which will come up and the bookie only offering you approximately 2.75/1 odds for each number chosen (actual probability odds are of course 5/1 against each number). If you and 5 friends each put a dollar on 6 separate numbers, no matter what number comes up the bookmaker will make a profit of about 2.25 on the 6 dollars total stake money he has taken in, approaching 40%.

A book percentage on any sizeable soccer match in Europe will be typically only 106%.

For a number of reasons would of course expect pool over-rounds to be much higher than a soccer match book but this one is not really that attractive overall value-wise in much the same way as most golf books are unattractive.

Surprised SJ are running a book at all as seem to recall them saying that past betting activity on pool with them has been negligible in comparison to popular sports. The value of any one particular player's odds is of course very much a matter of subjective opinion, irrespective of whether as a whole the book represents value to the punter.
 
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I have this evil plan of pooling all the participating players at the World Pool
Championships. I will pick a long shot like say, 300-1 odds, dump the total
prize money at SJ, split the money with the players and live like a king for 2
years. Since the prize money wouldn't come until the tourney is over, I need
a stakehorse to finance this sting. The players gets 70%, the financier gets
25% and the "brains", that's me of course will get 5%. I don't know the exact
prize money but let's say it is 500 Gs, multiplied by 300 and we will split 150 million! :eek:

Anybody wants to be the stakehorse? :D
 
I am horrified to learn that one AZB member has interpreted an earlier post of mine as some kind of a criticism of a prominent member of AZB when the precise opposite was intended.

The comparison was simply intended to convey the belief that the notion of Stan James group going bust was almost as ridiculous as the notion of an honest, respected and genuine pool lover familiar with Trudeau's shenanigans ever in the future approving of him being given control of any finances.

If even one person has taken an unintended meaning out of it there could be others so I hope this is now clear.

I regret using that analogy and wish I had simply said...... "KT is more likely to be appointed as a bank manager than Stan James Bookmaking Group is to go bust".....because that is the only basic sentiment that was intended.
 
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What an idea

gopi-1 said:
I have this evil plan of pooling all the participating players at the World Pool
Championships. I will pick a long shot like say, 300-1 odds, dump the total
prize money at SJ, split the money with the players and live like a king for 2
years. Since the prize money wouldn't come until the tourney is over, I need
a stakehorse to finance this sting. The players gets 70%, the financier gets
25% and the "brains", that's me of course will get 5%. I don't know the exact
prize money but let's say it is 500 Gs, multiplied by 300 and we will split 150 million! :eek:

Anybody wants to be the stakehorse? :D
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Let's all meet at Waffle House!
 
crawfish said:
Let's all meet at Waffle House!
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Railbirds don't get a piece of the pie crawfish!
baeh.gif
 
TheOne said:
exactly my thoughts, European biased and Ralf 25-1 I don't think so!

Ronnie is an interesting addition. However given his dislike for travel esp in Asian I wouldn't be surprised if his back, new,foot,finger,or toe nail excuse doesn't flare up again! :rolleyes:
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For the Norwegian 9-ball Challenge 2006, O'Sullivan got an ear infection the night before the tournament. I have saved the text message where he cancelled, his ear infection meant he couldn't travel by airfare. It meant a lot of trouble for us, because he was the mainattraction for both sponsors, media and A LOT of spectators... :o
 
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Roy Steffensen said:
For the Norwegian 9-ball Challenge 2006, O'Sullivan got an ear infection the night before the tournament. I have saved the text message where he cancelled, his ear infection meant he couldn't travel by airfare. It meant a lot of trouble for us, because he was the mainattraction for both sponsors, media and A LOT of spectators... :o
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Is he going this time Roy? He's a "live" long shot...
 
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