CJ Wiley vs Dennis Orcollo

[Black-Balled]

I will ask again. Will CJ break and run less vs a better player just because he is facing a better player? I never said CJ will win this match. Just he is more capable than people on here are giving him credit for. I do not think this will be a blowout.

Please link a match where Dennis played a race to 13 in 10 ball without missing a single ball. Would you like to bet that Dennis does not miss a single ball during the match vs CJ? I bet he will miss at least one ball.

Anyway...I will play along.

B/r less: yes. Cj was noted earlier in this thread as 5/6 runouts from the break. It will be a lower % in his match with dennis.

Videos- there are vids of top players playing the ghost at hard times. 10b, sub 4" pockets. Ghost loses by a long way. And there are no safes allowed in that game...see 'head squeezed', below

Bet that Dennis misses 'at least one ball'?

Are you familiar with the pro side of the pocket?
Ever hear of someone getting his head 'squeezed'? It is not a comfortable place to be, thinking you have one shot to kill the world. And you're kicking...jacked up...into a rail 2" away.

It is going to be very hard- not impossible- for cJ to win...but hes a proven champ and he like to play for the big one. That's why he is getting in the box and I think we can be sure he is gonna give it a real shot.

 

[nine_ball6970]

Anyway...I will play along.

B/r less: yes. Cj was noted earlier in this thread as 5/6 runouts from the break. It will be a lower % in his match with dennis.

Videos- there are vids of top players playing the ghost at hard times. 10b, sub 4" pockets. Ghost loses by a long way. And there are no safes allowed in that game...see 'head squeezed', below

Bet that Dennis misses 'at least one ball'?

Are you familiar with the pro side of the pocket?
Ever hear of someone getting his head 'squeezed'? It is not a comfortable place to be, thinking you have one shot to kill the world. And you're kicking...jacked up...into a rail 2" away.

It is going to be very hard- not impossible- for cJ to win...but hes a proven champ and he like to play for the big one. That's why he is getting in the box and I think we can be sure he is gonna give it a real shot.

Well thanks for the response. Obviously CJ won't break and run 83% of the time in his match vs Dennis. I feel like I keep repeating myself by saying if CJ has his break working, he is capable of putting packages together. You may say he freewheeled vs me but I really think he doesn't care who is sitting in the chair while he is running out.

Same goes for Dennis not missing a ball. You said Dennis routinely goes hours without making an egregious mistake. I believe a race to 13 would take a couple hours.

I have played on those tables at Hard Times. They are brutal. It is amazing what those guys can do vs the ghost. But in this match nobody is playing the ghost.

As others have stated, the 7 isn't much of a spot unless there are some combos in there. I doubt CJ would fail to run many additional racks if they were playing even. If he makes the 7 without a combo, then he is going to finish the rack a very high percentage of the time.

Time to go play pool. Have a nice day. I wish I could watch this match in person but that is impossible on a Thursday night for me.

 

[marek]

As someone else pointed out, you were looking at the "Hot" "Medium" and "Mild" spot charts. Those charts do not give the expected score in a match. Instead, they suggest handicaps that almost always favor the better player.

Calculating the odds in a match given the single-game probabilities is fairly easy if you have had a basic probability and statistics course. Microsoft Excel has the necessary functions built in.

Below are the resulting odds for all the possible scores for the case of two players 103 FargoRate points apart playing a race to 13. For example, the better player, A, will win with a score of 13-6 13.16% of the time. If you add up the appropriate boxes you will see that A (Orcullo) will win with a score of 13-6 or better (more lop-sided) 56% of the time.

View attachment 504733

Note that the most likely score is 13-5 in favor of Dennis.

Oh i see! Thx for correction :wink:

 

[marek]

Well race to 25? I dont see CJ winning this under normal circumstances and using supertight pockets makes it even tougher proposition as DO is straighter shooter of those two...

 

[JoeyInCali]

CJ was a great player in the 90's. He played Bustamante and Archer even.
He did get a spot against Efren. 3 games on the wire to 21 in 9-ball iirc.
Efren won it .
CJ did beat Bustamante in Seattle iirc.
But, he's just not been active .
Dennis beats anyone outside of SVB and Chang Jung Lin now imo.

 

[Dave714]

I thought CJ looked stiff against Efrin with his stance. I think the goofy looking cowboy hat needs to be retired. It's not a good look. CJ put on a ball cap and hit a gear easier..

 

[ribdoner]

Well thanks for the response. Obviously CJ won't break and run 83% of the time in his match vs Dennis. I feel like I keep repeating myself by saying if CJ has his break working, he is capable of putting packages together. You may say he freewheeled vs me but I really think he doesn't care who is sitting in the chair while he is running out.

Same goes for Dennis not missing a ball. You said Dennis routinely goes hours without making an egregious mistake. I believe a race to 13 would take a couple hours.

I have played on those tables at Hard Times. They are brutal. It is amazing what those guys can do vs the ghost. But in this match nobody is playing the ghost.

As others have stated, the 7 isn't much of a spot unless there are some combos in there. I doubt CJ would fail to run many additional racks if they were playing even. If he makes the 7 without a combo, then he is going to finish the rack a very high percentage of the time.

Time to go play pool. Have a nice day. I wish I could watch this match in person but that is impossible on a Thursday night for me.

imo the over on CJ B&R is 4.......5 for DO, however, DO will beat CJ to the shot by at least 50% & he'll make 50% fewer un-forced errors

My prediction....DO 13. CJ under 8

it'll be sweatable

 

[terryhanna]

imo the over on CJ B&R is 4.......5 for DO, however, DO will beat CJ to the shot by at least 50% & he'll make 50% fewer un-forced errors

My prediction....DO 13. CJ under 8

it'll be sweatable

Race is to 25 guys

 

[ChrisinNC]

Race is to 25 guys

So when is this match to be played? I thought it was scheduled to be played on Thursday - yesterday?

 

[AtLarge]

So when is this match to be played? I thought it was scheduled to be played on Thursday - yesterday?

Thurs. Nov. 15

 

[OLD NO 9]

There was a time CJ could stay with anyone, today he gets creamed even with the 7-ball.

 

[jrctherake]

There was a time CJ could stay with anyone, today he gets creamed even with the 7-ball.

Anyone of "his time", yes, I agree. Then again, CJ in his prime and Dennis now, umm Dennis wins hands down for the money. Short race, long race don't matter.

BTW, I'm a CJ fan so my opinion is based purely on pool, not anything else.

Also, "I wish" that CJ could beat Dennis O in a race to anything. I'm hoping the US eventually gets back ontop of the pool world. Yep, I'm a dreamer but, ain't it a damn fine dream?

 

[jrctherake]

CJ gets my respect for stepping into the box.
Going to have to tune in for sure.

CJ "always" gets my respect. Why? He deserves respect from everyone and not just because of pool.

CJ is a very good man and men like him are the very best types for "pool health". Why?:

Unlike 99% of the pool playing world, including the pros, CJ is/was a very strong pool player BUT, he is even stronger as a "business man".

Someone like CJ can make good things happen for pool. We can only hope he spends more time in pool than he has for several years now.

Not only would pool be stronger, the younger players today would get to see CJ's gear that has not been seen in a long time. Yep, CJ has a very, very high gear. It's just a little rusty right now to say the least.

That rust don't show so much when playing a scrub like myself but when facing top tier pros, I'm afraid anyone that has rust will be unveiled for sure.

I have mad respect for CJ.

Not many players could get in the box with Dennis O after such a LOOONNNGGG vacation from serious pool against beasts that are in "their" prime.

Rake

 

[Cardigan Kid]

CJ "always" gets my respect. Why? He deserves respect from everyone and not just because of pool.

CJ is a very good man and men like him are the very best types for "pool health". Why?:

Unlike 99% of the pool playing world, including the pros, CJ is/was a very strong pool player BUT, he is even stronger as a "business man".

Someone like CJ can make good things happen for pool. We can only hope he spends more time in pool than he has for several years now.

Not only would pool be stronger, the younger players today would get to see CJ's gear that has not been seen in a long time. Yep, CJ has a very, very high gear. It's just a little rusty right now to say the least.

That rust don't show so much when playing a scrub like myself but when facing top tier pros, I'm afraid anyone that has rust will be unveiled for sure.

I have mad respect for CJ.

Not many players could get in the box with Dennis O after such a LOOONNNGGG vacation from serious pool against beasts that are in "their" prime.

Rake

This was extremely well stated. I could not agree more.
Green has been sent your way, sir.

I know there were many disagreements over the CJ/TOI dvds and theories here on AZ. One thing would have to be agreed on is that CJ's teaching made everyone open their mind and think about the game in a brighter light. Even if trying to prove him wrong, his naysayers were still thinking about the game.

The CJ experience was like one of those old Kung Fu movies where the master is badgering the student with work, chores, and trivial exercises, only in the end, during the final fight scene, the student becomes the master after those teachings pointed him in the right direction to success.

My only wish is that CJ would stop in more often with a thread or two about his experiences in playing DO and what's going on in his current journey.

 

[ribdoner]

race is to 25 guys

do 25......cj 17

 

[Island Drive]

There was a time CJ could stay with anyone, today he gets creamed even with the 7-ball.

That's normal pool player behavior. It is why some are nibbling at Efren's heals. He's getting older every day. Eventually they know a score will be there. No different that a few yrs back Earl Trapping SVB on the 10 footer. It's what gamblers do. If DO see's something he might even lay it down a little to get em to ''jack the bet''.

We'll see. My thinking, Scott Frost had a much better shot to win, than this spot. What CJ doesn't realize, is if you give this man too many opportunities, he'll start playing better/better. I don't think it's possible for CJ to string multiple packages, but if he can he's got a chance. Playing Buddy Hall in his prime was scary....run three....safe, BIH run 5 safe, your kicking again. Seen that for years when he played good. DO plays rotation this good and kicks and jumps better that Buddy.

 

[cueman]

I hope someone posts updates as they play.

 

[jrctherake]

What some seem to either forget or just didn't know to begin with:

CJ didn't quit or retire from pro pool because he couldn't compete or be one the best, he retired "extremely early" because he was SMART enough to know he was financially better off to take other routes.

Also:
Most "ALL" pro pool players, old and new are "paupers" compared to CJ. Years ago, he made a wise decision even though he was greatly missed by all his fans and players alike.

 

[tommypabs]

I remember when CJ was a fearless and strong 9 ball player. For sure one of the top players 25ish years ago. He was one of my favorites to watch back then. I remember watching a match with him playing the Miz. Can be found on YouTube. Probably not the best reference point but it was a nail biter and fun to watch! I will be rooting for him but in 2018 could not bet on him!

 

[tommypabs]

CJ "always" gets my respect. Why? He deserves respect from everyone and not just because of pool.

CJ is a very good man and men like him are the very best types for "pool health". Why?:

Unlike 99% of the pool playing world, including the pros, CJ is/was a very strong pool player BUT, he is even stronger as a "business man".

Someone like CJ can make good things happen for pool. We can only hope he spends more time in pool than he has for several years now.

Not only would pool be stronger, the younger players today would get to see CJ's gear that has not been seen in a long time. Yep, CJ has a very, very high gear. It's just a little rusty right now to say the least.

That rust don't show so much when playing a scrub like myself but when facing top tier pros, I'm afraid anyone that has rust will be unveiled for sure.

I have mad respect for CJ.

Not many players could get in the box with Dennis O after such a LOOONNNGGG vacation from serious pool against beasts that are in "their" prime.

Rake

Agreed and well said!,