Do you think about the percentages on shots?

How often do you think about the percentages on a shot?

  • Total voters
    65
arsenius

arsenius

Nothing ever registers...
Silver Member
When you are playing a difficult shot or safety, do you think about the percentage of the time you will make it? Specific numbers like 75%, 50%, 10%... How many people have the ability to do this accurately and use it? I've heard players like Rempe and Grady talk about percentages on shots a lot, but it's something that I don't incorporate into my game at all.
 
arsenius said:
When you are playing a difficult shot or safety, do you think about the percentage of the time you will make it? Specific numbers like 75%, 50%, 10%... How many people have the ability to do this accurately and use it? I've heard players like Rempe and Grady talk about percentages on shots a lot, but it's something that I don't incorporate into my game at all.
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Well, people can interpret situations any way they like so long as the results are the same. For example, if you're faced with an offensive option and a defensive option, you can define the offensive option as being a "30% proposition" or perhaps, "unlikely". On the flip-side, if the safety is about as difficult, you can say it's "a coin-flip" suggesting that both options have equal probability.

It really doesn't matter how close one's estimates are to what is actual. The point is to define what is supposed to happen all the time, most of the time, some of the time, and rarely-made shots. It's not like poker where you can count which cards give you a winning hand over the remaining cards in the deck. Percentages in pool are going to vary from player to player and from day to day. Even the best players out there speak of their game like it's a seperate entity as though they only can influence it, not control it.

Being a percentage player is recognizing your options and being able to evaluate what is easier to execute versus its reward. A perfect example is a shot I had the other day (please see below). This is an example of a mistake. Now, I did have an offensive option but recognized that the 5-ball would inhibit my ability to position for the 2-ball so I elected to play safe.

Not thinking too far ahead, I ended-up leaving the 1-ball close to the 6-ball which meant that nearly ANY legal hit would result in a pocketed ball. My opponent DID kick the ball in and ran-out the table. Had I thought about it for a moment, I would have realized that the "higher percentage play" would have been to play the same safety only reversed, sending the 1-ball up-table instead of down-table. That way, the liklihood of returning to the table increases overwhelmingly.

Another play would be to pocket the 1-ball and set-up for a safety on the 2-ball though since there was no REAL problem with the 2 and I had ball-in-hand, I felt no need to give this option much consideration.

As you can see, there are percentages here that deal with my ability to execute (pocketing the 1-ball and getting position) and reward. Even if I CAN execute what I intended to do (referring to the safety), what is there to gain and can I gain more by considering another option?

http://CueTable.com/P/?@3AaiX3BPAa3...ILNm3PSOx3UaiX3Ubof4UUWW3kSOx3kXNP3kbgW3kWob@
shot022207.JPG
 
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To clarify, I am interested in knowing whether you guys think IN NUMBERS. Not in better/worse options, because you have to think about that to play pool at all well. Faced with any given shot, do you think "I have a 25% chance of missing and a 75% chance of making it"? Or, I have a 90% chance to run out from here rather than "I know I can run out from here" and then being upset on those occasions that it doesn't happen.
 
good question. For a few months while practicing I would chart different shots and keep track of make % thinking it would help me make decisions while playing a match. All it really did was screw with my head in my pre shot routine. I found my shot selection depends more on how I'm playing that day, where I am in the match, and the situation with my opponent.

I also quit the percentage game playing cards as well...

Gerry
 
Short answer is no. Too difficult to put a number on something. I also think if I quantify my chances I will talk myself out of the shot......I've got an 85% chance to miss this shot......sets up a mental excuse to miss. I think it's much better to look at the shot in terms of not makable, tough but makable, not easy, easy, and no brainer or in some such manner as this. This is not taking into account what you want the cue ball to do after the hit. That can make a "no brainer" a "not easy shot" if you need to get up table through traffic.
It's also easier for me to get phyched up to take a tough shot rather than looking at it as low percentage.
For me terms like "low percentage" come into play in the post shot analysis. " I shouldn't have done that, it was really a low percentage shot" type of thing...

McCue Banger McCue
 
Never think in numbers. Only in the desired result. It's not like poker. Where will cue go if I make it or miss it. Where will object ball go if I miss. Is it harder to get a good saftey or harder to make the shot.
Numbers only used in daimond system. My 2 cents.
 
arsenius said:
When you are playing a difficult shot or safety, do you think about the percentage of the time you will make it? Specific numbers like 75%, 50%, 10%... How many people have the ability to do this accurately and use it? I've heard players like Rempe and Grady talk about percentages on shots a lot, but it's something that I don't incorporate into my game at all.
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Oh no, I voted prematurly! I chose often, because I do think about which position is more likely often. As far as actually thinking about anything that has to do with %, NO WAY, NEVER, NOT ONCE IN MY LIFE. I think when players talk about percentages they are just speaking about being "more likely" to get there or make the ball this way or that way. There is no need to actually deal with the numbers.
 
bad idea for me, I think for anyone

Applying my overall percentage to how I am playing on a certain day would be foolish. Are my very thin cuts falling today? Am I kicking and banking well? These things depend on the table, temperature, humidity, very possibly barometric pressure, the balls, and how well I have adjusted for these things today, as well as how well I am seeing and hitting my shots.

I need to have an idea of how likely I am to hit a shot at this moment. That decides if I risk selling out if I focus primarily on pocketing the object ball or whether I focus primarily on where the cue ball is going and the safety. Obviously I care where both balls are going all of the time but I do find that it is best to give one or the other primary importance on tough shots unless the two way shot is a natural.

Even if I tried to learn all players overall numbers or even my overall numbers, it is far more important how I feel about the percentages when I get over this shot at this moment in time. If confidence is high an overall 50/50 shot may be a 90% shot. On the other hand if I have missed a similar shot over and over today and am still struggling with adjustments, confidence is low and a 60-75% long term shot may be under 50% at this moment and it is time to focus primarily on what happens if I miss.

(a quick edit) The poll forces me to choose never or 33% of the time. I do consider rough numbers early in the day before I feel like I know how the balls are rolling. That is far closer to never than 33% of the time however.

Hu
 
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Jude Rosenstock said:
Now, I did have an offensive option but recognized that the 5-ball would inhibit my ability to position for the 2-ball so I elected to play safe.

Not thinking too far ahead, I ended-up leaving the 1-ball close to the 6-ball which meant that nearly ANY legal hit would result in a pocketed ball. My opponent DID kick the ball in and ran-out the table. Had I thought about it for a moment, I would have realized that the "higher percentage play" would have been to play the same safety only reversed, sending the 1-ball up-table instead of down-table. That way, the liklihood of returning to the table increases overwhelmingly.

Another play would be to pocket the 1-ball and set-up for a safety on the 2-ball though since there was no REAL problem with the 2 and I had ball-in-hand, I felt no need to give this option much consideration.
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Jude, you know I like to go for the weird shots, but when i first started reading this one, I didn't realize you had ball-in-hand for your first shot. Maybe the cuetable layout doesn't reflect the close proximity of the 1, the 5 and the rail but it looks to me like with proper cueball positioning, and a soft-medium hit with a lot of top left, you might have been able to get the cueball "above" that 3-7 pair for a good chance of a runout.

And let's say the cueball didn't miss the 5 and killed, you still have the downtable safety option.

But to answer the thread.. (gotta keep on-topic, right?:) ) I don't really think in terms of numbers, just possibilities. Then I usually go ahead and shoot the Hollywood shot anyway.

Ken
 
arsenius said:
When you are playing a difficult shot or safety, do you think about the percentage of the time you will make it? Specific numbers like 75%, 50%, 10%... How many people have the ability to do this accurately and use it? I've heard players like Rempe and Grady talk about percentages on shots a lot, but it's something that I don't incorporate into my game at all.
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Nope, I categorize shots as low or high percentage or 50/50 and take the shot or play safe depending on my opponent and the situation. :)
 
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It all depends I guess. When coaching a shot/safety, I do add in my 2 cents concerning percentages. As when it comes to my own shooting, I don't think about it often as I should.
 
The way I see it there are several types of percentages to consider.

The first one is your ability to make(or execute) a specific shot.

When playing a safety, you have to weigh your opponents percentage of getting out of the trap(like Jude said)

There is also the percentage of one pattern over another, this percentage is the most important.

In the end while you should consider percentages(not real numbers) you may select a pattern with a higher percentage to run out starting out with a low percentage shot, because it's the right shot.
 
I think the poll results are not going to be accurate. It should be more specific in the title, I am guessing that more than just me has voted before reading the first post...
 
Slider said:
Jude, you know I like to go for the weird shots, but when i first started reading this one, I didn't realize you had ball-in-hand for your first shot. Maybe the cuetable layout doesn't reflect the close proximity of the 1, the 5 and the rail but it looks to me like with proper cueball positioning, and a soft-medium hit with a lot of top left, you might have been able to get the cueball "above" that 3-7 pair for a good chance of a runout.

And let's say the cueball didn't miss the 5 and killed, you still have the downtable safety option.

But to answer the thread.. (gotta keep on-topic, right?:) ) I don't really think in terms of numbers, just possibilities. Then I usually go ahead and shoot the Hollywood shot anyway.

Ken
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Well, the point of my post (which I think got lost in the crowd) was to illustrate that percentage-play does not mean one should have statistics in their head when making decisions. It's usually cut-and-dried which way to go once you've examined all the options. It's just a matter of recognizing your options and choosing the one that gives you the best chance to win.
 
I think in terms of odds only to come to one conclusion, where to leave the cue-ball. If I am facing a shot that in my opinion I will only make 25% of the time, I will try to bury the cue-ball somewhere. If I am facing a shot where in my opinion I will make it 75% of the time, I will be setting up my next shot with the cue-ball. On every shot I am calculating where the cue-ball needs to be for my next offensive shot or my opponent's next shot.
 
The on ly way to have consistant long runs is to...

know the percentage and incorporate it into your decisions whether to leave a safety or take the shot! :eek:
 
I like to think about what I can do to make the shot 100% makeable, going through my routine. In other words I want to make sure if the shot is 90% makeable, I make it 100%. Also I like to compare options on the shot at hand and the position it will leave me for the next shot, if the first shot is slightly more difficult but leaves me a much easier next ball, I'll opt for the more difficult first shot. Capelle's book illustrates this. It's good to consider.
 
I always want to know ahead of time if I will probably make a shot or not. I like to know if it is probably 100% chance I will make it or something less.

I also like to know if it is an "in your dreams" low percentage shot.

I feel it is very important to know this before pulling the trigger.

If it is not a 100% probable shot (including being able to leave the cue ball for my next shot), then I will consider my other options - usually a safety. Sometimes it can be a 90 % or 80 % shot and I will choose a safety instead.

Lately I have been "holding out" and playing safeties until the conditions are to my liking. Sometimes 7 safeties in a row. Maybe I can easily pocket my ball, but will have trouble leaving the cue ball for my next shot. Maybe the next ball to shoot is tied up, so shooting this ball in would be shooting myself in the foot!

I win more games by thinking ahead and playing safeties until conditions are good to runout. Will I make this shot for sure? If not, then maybe better play safe. (Of course sometimes it is do or die...)
 
Interesting question as percentages are always a subject....I just spent 2 hours hitting balls( 8ball because that will be my next event)...I found out that numbers never enter my mind; it is more like a greater than/less than type elimination process. I'm either on green, yellow or full stop (think traffic light)...:)
 
We call it playing by percentages, but I think it is actually playing the probability of a shot or safety. It's a feel sort of thing. If I am anxious about performing the shot, then it has a low probability for me on that particular day and situation. If there is a great probability of me making the shot, then the thoughts of missing or flubbing shape don't even enter my mind. I just proceed with what needs to be done to get it done.
 
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