For the stat guys: short races favor weaker players?

alphadog

alphadog

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
At what # do the weaker players chances really fall off?

I believe the # is three. If they are ahead 2 to 0, a plausible score, they only need 1 of the next three.

Races to 1 are obvoiusly there greatest hope.
 
I think weaker players can make upsets in races to 5 also, but 7-9 forget it!
 
The disparity ot the player's levels has to be addressed, before you can reasonably discuss such things.

Now, which one of you bastards invented the ram shot?

FESS UP!
:grin:
 
alphadog said:
At what # do the weaker players chances really fall off?

I believe the # is three. If they are ahead 2 to 0, a plausible score, they only need 1 of the next three.

Races to 1 are obvoiusly there greatest hope.
Click to expand...

If you go to http://fairmatch.fargorate.com/ and click on "find match odds", you can set up matches between players of any ability and to any match length. For example, a 600 playing a 700 a race to 8 will get the upset 9% of the time.
 
alphadog said:
At what # do the weaker players chances really fall off?

I believe the # is three. If they are ahead 2 to 0, a plausible score, they only need 1 of the next three.

Races to 1 are obvoiusly there greatest hope.
Click to expand...

Depends on how weaker and what game.

From my observation and experience, race to 3 is decent mid-ground for an even race between players a level apart. Race to two may be for players 1.5 levels apart. If in 8 ball, I may go down by one game since it's harder for a weaker player to win in 8 ball vs 9 ball. I may lose in 9 ball because I missed a 9 or an 8 or scratched and they have one shot to make to win. In 8 ball, I can miss the 8 and still have 2-3-4 tries to win again vs a weaker player.

I have lost to a C 3-0 in 9 ball before, which more than one level since I am a B+, I don't think I have ever lost like that in 8 ball to anyone a level under me.
 
 
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From a purely statistical point of view, a race-to-one is by far the weaker player's best bet.

Suppose player B is 50% better than player A, and each game, player A has a 40% chance of winning and player B has a 60% chance of winning. Then, as you can see in the (bottom left) chart below, player A's chance of winning a race-to-two drops almost 5 pct points from a race-to-one.

Unless the two players are evenly matched (top-left chart), it doesn't matter how close in strength player A is to player B...with each increase in race length, the odds that the stronger player will win increases.

race_odds.png
 
alphadog said:
Aren't you stats guys happy I gave you something To flex your muscles on .:D;)
Click to expand...

I like using my survival instincts....when I finally started playing in nine-ball tournaments...
....I would drive four times farther to play in races to nine over races to seven.
...
 
All even races favor the stronger player. But the longer the race the more they favor the stronger player.
 
Short races

It has been my experience that short races favor neither the better or worse player

If i were to play shane and had way the worse of it i would have no chance to win a long race,
but then again a short race would not favor me

There is more risk,or opportunity for luck in a short race


Onece I was at a car dealership trying to buy my daughter a car with some friendly salesmen

We got down to about $2000 apart
,he offered to flip a coin for the difference
nce
He said he was busy but his sales manager could go

The sales manager comes out wearing shorts and golf shoes
Also he was not an experienced gambler,hustler as he admits
to being city senior champion

To make a long story short,I made the bet at my home course where I could shoot pretty good
and for only 9 holes

A short race

My theory was that I would come out ok because I was used to
high stakes gambling and figured he might not be

I also knew that I was no champion so I wanted to get the game over with before
his added skill factor came in

I didn't want him to be able to grind me down


I added a little more to my side by betting all the salesmen all they would bet
in order to draw a crowd

Some people think funny when everyone is watching and they get weak trying to show off

or worse yet,they try not to lose.Pressure affects people in a funny way

So with half a dozen people watching and all the excitement,the champion
didn't play his best,bogeyed the last hole and I won bu the hair of my chin


A short race added to the pressure,of course I could have lost,
but I didn't on this occasion


Short races to one,are just playing by the game

The strategy here is that you can win or lose a bunch of bets or you can quit if you see that you have a bad game,or adjust

When I was a kid I played anybody I did not know

my thoery was if I saw I was up against a better player I could quit

If i was winning,mo opponent might play forever

You will see people in the pool room who still apply this
they lose 2 and quit

Martk these guys down and avoid them
It has been my practice to always play more games if I am losing now
my theory is that I want to encourage people to play me

I know a loose image attracts games

oh well,so much for my thoughts on the short session
 
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