IPT- Vegas Betting Odds

[memikey]

....... it is my opinion that it depends upon how much is wagered on a given player or players , which remains to be seen ...a player that is getting 500 to 1 odds can really make a difference.....

Nope.Afraid not hippiepool.It doesn't depend on that at all.How much money is wagered on any given player is irrelevant to calculating the "book percentage".

The book percentage is determined by calculating the sum of the winning odds of all the runners expressed as a percentage.If the sum comes to over 100% the overall cumulative odds of all the runners is in the bookmakers favour,if it comes to less than 100% (not often !) it is in the punters favour.The higher above 100% it goes the more the bookmaker is ripping off the punters with skinny odds.

Now a typical book percentage on a high volume online betting market,let's say a soccer world cup match, might be in the average range of 103% to 109%.

The book percentage on the bookmakers odds list in the first post in this thread is approaching 200% !!!!!! The book percentage on the new odds list above is almost exactly the same.

Now can you see what I mean?

 

[Nostroke]

....and even more people know nothing about betting and a balanced book.....this book is horrendously over-round and as a whole it is therefore terrible value for the punter because it is weighted way way way beyond the level of normal betting margins in the bookmakers favour[/QUOTE


well , they have some "killer" 8-ball players at between 66 and 500 to 1 so I dont think it is in their favor at all.....( hoping not to knock anyones action , i'm not even buying that it's for real).

The last sentence above starting with " well, they......"
was stated by hippiepool, not memikey


Not for real??

Stan James is a huge company with betting stores all over the UK. Canada too i think.

I have been betting pool with them since Mika won the WPC in 2001. The Year Hohmann won, some English legal bookies had him at 1000-1. I think Stan James had him at 500-1. It is pretty evident that they have no real pool experts on the payroll. There isnt enough interest to make it worth their while apparently.The snooker guy probably does his best.

Im sure most years they still make money on pool because of the vig but there are always values to be found.

 

[Nostroke]

Nope.Afraid not hippiepool.It doesn't depend on that at all.How much money is wagered on any given player is irrelevant to calculating the "book percentage".

The book percentage is determined by calculating the sum of the winning odds of all the runners expressed as a percentage.If the sum comes to over 100% the overall cumulative odds of all the runners is in the bookmakers favour,if it comes to less than 100% (not often !) it is in the punters favour.The higher above 100% it goes the more the bookmaker is ripping off the punters with skinny odds.

Now a typical book percentage on a high volume online betting market,let's say a soccer world cup match, might be in the average range of 103% to 109%.

The book percentage on the bookmakers odds list in the first post in this thread is approaching 200% !!!!!! The book percentage on the new odds list above is almost exactly the same.

Now can you see what I mean?

The book percentage of course is way in the bookies favor but unless the wagering is parimutuel, the bookie can lose on a given event. If everyone bets Jason Miller and he wins, no percentage helps the bookie.

If they had Efren at 750-1 and Bernie Friend at 14-1, the 'book percentage' would be unchanged but they might be in a world of trouble.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Colin,
Ask Mr.Liu to fax a note to China's Ambassador to the United States and explain the circumstances. Send too copies of his passport, US Visa application reference number and the letter from IPT. What'll happen here is that the Ambassador will contact INS and guarantee safe conduct and financial backing (stating that he won't be a financial burden to the US Gov).

This is usually my last ditch effort for Phil. players that I assist for Japan tournaments (Japan visa)and the WPC-Cardiff(UK visa). I've been lucky to get same day results. Also duiring the interview, he should show financial capability for his stay in the United States. Credit cards and current statements or travellers cheques equivalent to US$300/day of stay. An expense projection break-down will also help. Lodging($175/day at The Venetian-required of participants), food and travel expenses to include roundtrip plane fares (CHN-LAX-CHN &LAX-LV-LAX).
Good luck to Mr. Liu Wei.

Edit: Don't blame the INS, they're just doing their job. If Mr. Liu wants to play in the IPT NA8 real bad then he should try all avenues. One's the above.

Thanks for the tip Edwin,
I do hope the ambassador from China would accept or react to such an attempt. That is if his fax number is available.

I've given the information to Liu Wei's representative.

Crossing fingers.

Colin

 

[memikey]

The book percentage of course is way in the bookies favor but unless the wagering is parimutuel, the bookie can lose on a given event. If everyone bets Jason Miller and he wins, no percentage helps the bookie.

If they had Efren at 750-1 and Bernie Friend at 14-1, the 'book percentage' would be unchanged but they might be in a world of trouble.

First of all Nostroke,do me a favour and edit your last but one post in this thread.......many people already think I'm a scatterbrain without you accidentally seeming to attribute something rather inaccurate that hippiepool said as a "quote" from me which then appears to contradict things that I have actually said

Now as regards the different subject of the above quote from you,on a grumpy day my first reaction to your revelation that the bookmaker could still lose even when the opening book percentage is heavily in his favour might have been to enquire if that came straight out of the hitch-hikers guide to the blindingly obvious

Of course he can,nobody said otherwise,I certainly didn't.In a perfect betting world for the bookmaker who gets a sustained run of bets for one or two guys (who he would have shortened up anyway) he would of course simply adjust his prices to then attract enough money in bets for the runners that he has no great liabilities against in order to rebalance the book and his percentage.......but we all know that it does not happen quite as smoothly as that for bookmakers in real life,just as we all know that Efren will never be 750/1

 

[Eric.]

I see that the odds have been recalculated. Bernie has been moved down in my area.

That's a more realistic set of odds. Bernie isn't considered in the top 100 or so players in the NY metro area. I'm not putting him down, just getting the facts straight.


Eric

 

[Nostroke]

First of all Nostroke,do me a favour and edit your last but one post in this thread.......many people already think I'm an idiot without you accidentally seeming to attribute something rather inaccurate that hippiepool said as a "quote" from me

Now as regards the different subject of the above quote from you,on a grumpy day my first reaction to your revelation that the bookmaker could still lose even when the opening book percentage is heavily in his favour might have been to enquire if that came straight out of the hitch-hikers guide to the blindingly obvious

Of course he can,nobody said otherwise,I certainly didn't.In a perfect betting world for the bookmaker who gets a sustained run of bets for one or two guys (who he would have shortened up anyway) he would of course simply adjust his prices to then attract enough money in bets for the runners that he has no great liabilities against in order to rebalance the book and his percentage.......but we all know that it does not happen quite as smoothly as that for bookmakers in real life,just as we all know that Efren will never be 750/1

If i replied to a Hippiepool post , his post is copied and i cant edit that. I just added a clarification though. Maybe send me a PM if im still not understanding you.

As far as the rest of it, You are right and so was i.

 

[memikey]

No problem Nostroke,thanks.

 

[satman]

Nice call Bill

Oh thee of little knowledge and faith. 500/1 Brian Groce? That's nuts. Not "THE" nuts but should be more like 50/1. If the boy is in stroke they all better watch out and you heard it here first.

I was looking at that list and kept thinking as I went down the list,"I must have missed Brian's". I'm going to get an account and bet something. I'd like to bet at least a hundred and maybe more. THAT IS NUTS. As much as I love the way George Breedlove plays, I'd take Brian playing 8-ball. Not a player in this tournament has to like playing Brian. I've heard Brian actually started practicing a month before he won the qualifier. In all the years I've known him, I never, ever heard of him practicing. That was for the qualifier, I wonder how hard he's working out for this, knowing he has a shot at some big dough.
Shane va Boening is another great bet @500 to 1
There's only about 5 guys I'd actually bet on that are listed at less than 125 to 1 with it being 8 ball. They've been in this business for a long time so I guess they know what they're doing. bUT I am going to try and get an account set up though and make some bets. Sam

 

[Nostroke]

I was looking at that list and kept thinking as I went down the list,"I must have missed Brian's". I'm going to get an account and bet something. I'd like to bet at least a hundred and maybe more. THAT IS NUTS. As much as I love the way George Breedlove plays, I'd take Brian playing 8-ball. Not a player in this tournament has to like playing Brian. I've heard Brian actually started practicing a month before he won the qualifier. In all the years I've known him, I never, ever heard of him practicing. That was for the qualifier, I wonder how hard he's working out for this, knowing he has a shot at some big dough.
Shane va Boening is another great bet @500 to 1
There's only about 5 guys I'd actually bet on that are listed at less than 125 to 1 with it being 8 ball. They've been in this business for a long time so I guess they know what they're doing. bUT I am going to try and get an account set up though and make some bets. Sam

You have to go to www.Stanjames.com
for the current odds.

Those were bad lines by the bookies-already been changed. Set up the account-Next time you can strike fast like a snake off a rock! (and there are still some good values)

 

[sniper]

The lines are there for a reason. A top guy will win it and that will be that.

There are some lines that are not comparable to how players play but in the end the cream ALWAYS rises.

When Hohmann won the WPC in 2003 nobody had ever heard of him before and he was a 1000-1 longshot to win it, it's always possible for someone who is not considered a legitimate contender to come out of nowhere and shock everybody. I'm not saying it is going to happen at the Venetian but it is always a possibility.

 

[bandido]

Thanks for the tip Edwin,
I do hope the ambassador from China would accept or react to such an attempt. That is if his fax number is available.

I've given the information to Liu Wei's representative.

Crossing fingers.

Colin

Here's the info:
Embassy of the People's Republic of China
2300 Connecticut Ave.,NW, Washington DC 20008, USA
Ambassador Zhou Wenzhong
Tel: (202) 328-2500
Fax: (202) 588-0032
e-mail: chinaembassy us@fmprc.gov.cn

 

[Harvywallbanger]

I was looking at that list and kept thinking as I went down the list,"I must have missed Brian's". I'm going to get an account and bet something. I'd like to bet at least a hundred and maybe more. THAT IS NUTS. As much as I love the way George Breedlove plays, I'd take Brian playing 8-ball. Not a player in this tournament has to like playing Brian. I've heard Brian actually started practicing a month before he won the qualifier. In all the years I've known him, I never, ever heard of him practicing. That was for the qualifier, I wonder how hard he's working out for this, knowing he has a shot at some big dough.
Shane va Boening is another great bet @500 to 1
There's only about 5 guys I'd actually bet on that are listed at less than 125 to 1 with it being 8 ball. They've been in this business for a long time so I guess they know what they're doing. bUT I am going to try and get an account set up though and make some bets. Sam

Its funny you mention that. I live about an hour away from he and Denvers pool hall.(a great place to play by the way) I used to go there a little bit a few years back and would talk to him from time to time. I don't know if it was just a phase or what but he told me he didn't practice that much anymore. I asked him why and his exact words were "I just no longer have the desire to be the best player in the world anymore". I hope that has changed now. Give'em hell Brian!!!

Josh

 

[vagabond]

hey sammie ...... well said sir , if Brian is not the most feared player in indiana , i am not a burned out old hippie ...

Are u the same `hippie` who hanged around in executive Billiards on KeyStone & 51st street in Indy?

 

[satman]

Like I said

Its funny you mention that. I live about an hour away from he and Denvers pool hall.(a great place to play by the way) I used to go there a little bit a few years back and would talk to him from time to time. I don't know if it was just a phase or what but he told me he didn't practice that much anymore. I asked him why and his exact words were "I just no longer have the desire to be the best player in the world anymore". I hope that has changed now. Give'em hell Brian!!!

Josh

I've known him for a long time, since he was 15. From the time he started going on the road, I never knew him to actually practice. To sit and work on something. he would come into the poolroom and knock a few balls around or show up at a tournament and hit a few racks to warm up, but that was it. He had told me he really didn't even like pool. Could be different now that there's a chunk sitting right there in front of his face. Guess we'll see.

 

[satman]

UHHH, Yea

Are u the same `hippie` who hanged around in executive Billiards on KeyStone & 51st street in Indy?

I think he's one of em'. I believe that place had a couple of them. I'm sure he spent a little time there, just like the rest of us. Hell, I live an hour away and I spent some time there. Sam

 

[enzo]

I't's probably our own fault = Looks like they were monitoring this site and we snitched ourselves off and smartened them up and so they changed the odds accordingly.

I love this comment, here we all are trying to prove how smart we are. Meanwhile, we killed any chance that we all had at making some money.

 

[TannerPruess]

I love this comment, here we all are trying to prove how smart we are. Meanwhile, we killed any chance that we all had at making some money.

I doubt that anyone from stanjames came here to see how they did on setting up the odds. They probably saw what player's odds they needed to change by watching how much and how many people bet on a player like Larry Nevel @ 400-1 o Shane VB @ 500-1.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Here's the info:
Embassy of the People's Republic of China
2300 Connecticut Ave.,NW, Washington DC 20008, USA
Ambassador Zhou Wenzhong
Tel: (202) 328-2500
Fax: (202) 588-0032
e-mail: chinaembassy us@fmprc.gov.cn

Thanks Edwin,
We're following it up. Hope it helps.

Cheers,
Colin

 

[hippiepool]

Nope.Afraid not hippiepool.It doesn't depend on that at all.How much money is wagered on any given player is irrelevant to calculating the "book percentage".

The book percentage is determined by calculating the sum of the winning odds of all the runners expressed as a percentage.If the sum comes to over 100% the overall cumulative odds of all the runners is in the bookmakers favour,if it comes to less than 100% (not often !) it is in the punters favour.The higher above 100% it goes the more the bookmaker is ripping off the punters with skinny odds.

Now a typical book percentage on a high volume online betting market,let's say a soccer world cup match, might be in the average range of 103% to 109%.

The book percentage on the bookmakers odds list in the first post in this thread is approaching 200% !!!!!! The book percentage on the new odds list above is almost exactly the same.

Now can you see what I mean?

i dunno , it's pretty early and i'm on my first cup of "plasma" ...