last two vs. the eight

D

donut

Registered
How much bigger of a spot is the eight than the last two? Judging by the responses to my last thread on combinations, I'm guessing the answer is "not much". It's funny because I have always thought of the last two as a pretty small spot, and the eight as a substantial spot. This may be more because of stories I've heard than personal experience, since I haven't had to give up weight to many people.

For example, in one match that Billy I. is commentating, he tells of a time that he played Efren when he was still named Cesar Morales. Unsurprisingly, Billy lost a set playing even, but took it down when Efren gave him the eight. As Billy said, "Nobody in the world could've given me the eight at that time." And I don't really doubt him when he says that. It makes the eight sound like a pretty big spot.
 
I think the 8 is definitely a much more substantial spot, particularly if wild. It is one more game winning ball on the break, is available for early combos, etc. I think the last 2 is a VERY mild spot. If two C players are playing, it might be worth something. However, for solid B players and above, the last two is practically nothing.

My $0.02

KMRUNOUT
 
I once played a guy who placed 18th in the US open,a pretty good player. He started out giving me the 8 and I was killing him. Because he was a long time friend I agreed to adjust to the last 2 and he killed me. You wouldn't think there would be a big difference but the last 2 takes away combos and caroms. And when you play at a fairly high level it does matter.
 
Hands down the eight is the bigger spot.

Other spots vary depending on the player getting the spot (games on the wire, the break, orange crush, etc.)
 
What you guys are saying is pretty much what I had thought. Only recently have I tried to think about what accounts for the large difference in the spots.

Which do you think is more of a factor: the 8 on the break or early 8 on combos and caroms?

Also, if the eight spot is a fair game for two players, then they are breaking about equally often. So the better player can also make the 8 on the break, and then the weaker player has NO advantage, unlike in the last two. So that could counteract the strength of the 8 spot a little.
 
donut said:
What you guys are saying is pretty much what I had thought. Only recently have I tried to think about what accounts for the large difference in the spots.

Which do you think is more of a factor: the 8 on the break or early 8 on combos and caroms?

Also, if the eight spot is a fair game for two players, then they are breaking about equally often. So the better player can also make the 8 on the break, and then the weaker player has NO advantage, unlike in the last two. So that could counteract the strength of the 8 spot a little.
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the thing is its pretty easy to place balls off the break...so even if you don't make the 8 on the break its highly likely that your going to leave it by a pocket which will make combos and caroms more available....so IMOP its a little of both
 
If

you are playing a champion run out artist, then the last 2-3 or even 4 is next to nothing. Take the last 3 next time, and actually count how many shots you get for the 7, 8, or 9 during the set.

Simple logic tells you something, say you are playing a guy to runs out 95% of the time he gets a shot. That means you can only maybe get a shot on the 7-8-9 5% of the time. Say you are playing a set to 9, .05 x 9 is .45.
So you're odds are less than half a game that you will get to shoot a money ball for you. Do you like those odds?
 
Scott...You should already know this...the last 3 is not necessarily (and often isn't) the 7, 8 & 9. It's the LAST 3 balls on the table...which could be the 9 and any other two balls. I got the last 3 and the break from Keith 35 years ago (who already was a "champion run out artist", at 17), and beat him at it (6 quick games, and he quit, stuck almost 2 dimes).

Oh...and no thanks Keith...I don't want that spot these days! LOL :D

Scott Lee
www.poolknowledge.com

Snapshot9 said:
you are playing a champion run out artist, then the last 2-3 or even 4 is next to nothing. Take the last 3 next time, and actually count how many shots you get for the 7, 8, or 9 during the set.

Simple logic tells you something, say you are playing a guy to runs out 95% of the time he gets a shot. That means you can only maybe get a shot on the 7-8-9 5% of the time. Say you are playing a set to 9, .05 x 9 is .45.
So you're odds are less than half a game that you will get to shoot a money ball for you. Do you like those odds?
Click to expand...
 
Snapshot9 said:
you are playing a champion run out artist, then the last 2-3 or even 4 is next to nothing. Take the last 3 next time, and actually count how many shots you get for the 7, 8, or 9 during the set.

Simple logic tells you something, say you are playing a guy to runs out 95% of the time he gets a shot. That means you can only maybe get a shot on the 7-8-9 5% of the time. Say you are playing a set to 9, .05 x 9 is .45.
So you're odds are less than half a game that you will get to shoot a money ball for you. Do you like those odds?
Click to expand...


Your logic is so convincing that now I don't even think the 7-out is a big spot. And it probably isn't when you are playing this hypothetical person who runs an occasional 20 or 30 pack. :yikes: BTW, anyone know SVB's high run on a barbox?
 
Here are a few variations of the 8 ball spot:

Wild 8.
If you make the wild 8 on the break and continue then the 9 ball is game ball.
Call 8 only on the break.
Call 8 all the time.
Wild 8 only after the break/then call.
If I make the 8 on my break it stays down.
If you slop the 8 in the wrong pocket and make another ball you continue shooting but the 8 stays down, or vise versa.
If you make the call 8 on the break in the wrong pocket it spots/or it doesn't spot.
If you make ONLY the call 8 on the break in the wrong pocket and no other balls down you loose your turn at the table.

There are many more variations but you can easily rachet the 8 ball spot closer to the last two and in some cases make the last two a better spot.
 
donut said:
What you guys are saying is pretty much what I had thought. Only recently have I tried to think about what accounts for the large difference in the spots.

Which do you think is more of a factor: the 8 on the break or early 8 on combos and caroms?
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Good luck making the wild 8 on the break. It's going right in fron of the head ball, and it goes in maybe 1 in 20 times.

Also, If I am giving the call 8, or not wild on the break, I put the 8 at back of the rack [just in front of the last ball] - hoping it GOES IN on the break! That way, I know where it will be for the rest of the game -> on the foot spot. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't ;)

Your logic is so convincing that now I don't even think the 7-out is a big spot. And it probably isn't when you are playing this hypothetical person who runs an occasional 20 or 30 pack. BTW, anyone know SVB's high run on a barbox?
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I think you are mixing two different spots. The 7 out is a lot more weight than the last 3. Even if SVB is runining 20 backs, he has to run 20X9 balls. If you have the 7 out, you run 20 games in 20 breaks - or 40 shots [break + 1 shot]. You could never come close to that with the last 3.

-td
 
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With the last 2 you dont have a bigger chance of winning on the break like you do with the free 8. Same with getting out early...

I have played both ways getting the last 2 or the 8 and giving them out. If I was giving weight, I would definately prefer to give the last 2 rather then give them another money ball.
 
donut said:
Your logic is so convincing that now I don't even think the 7-out is a big spot. And it probably isn't when you are playing this hypothetical person who runs an occasional 20 or 30 pack. :yikes: BTW, anyone know SVB's high run on a barbox?
Click to expand...

It depends on how well your opponent plays. For 90+% of all players, the last 3 is a very significant spot. IN AZ land we tend to all type like A to Open players. That's skewed...

For a C player, the last 3 vs the wild 8 is pretty close IMO. I'd recommend the last 3 vs the call 8 to a C. For a D player, take the last 3 over the wild 8.

It's all relative and knowing this makes all the difference in setting up a spot. Kudos to you for doing your homework. Good luck! :thumbup:
 
Giving weight

For all the reasons stated the 8 ball is a bigger spot that the last 2.
That said when giving the 8 ball consider these to limit it's impact:
-Called 8 ball always, no lucking it in and no 8 ball breaks
-Rack the 8 ball behind the 1 ball opposite from the side the opponent breaks in to send it up table. The 7 behind the 9 on the side they break from to leave it down table. Keeps the 8 ball from setting up in front of the bottom 2 pockets and makes them have to go up table from the 7 to the 8.
-Pocket or move the 8 ball after the break on the pushout to limit combos

We play that if the player getting the spot fouls in the money ball it stays down and if the player giving the spot makes it on the break it does as well.

Many times the player getting the spot chooses to ride the 8 early and gives up control of the table and the game. Other times it's a shooting galery with the 8 in a pocket just waiting to be made on combination. For this reason, especially when playing for only a short time I like giving the last 2-3 balls. It isn't as much of a factor because many times a good player would be out anyway after making the 2nd or 3rd to last ball.
 
Thank you, Bill, td873, master9baller, and others for the excellent suggestions of strategies and variations. My original question concerns the wild 8, but it is good to know all the different ways you can adjust the strenght of the spot. Because not every pair of players falls neatly into a category where one can give the other the last two, the eight, the seven, etc.

td873 said:
Good luck making the wild 8 on the break. It's going right in fron of the head ball, and it goes in maybe 1 in 20 times.
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This is the exact percentage I've been assuming when trying to think about this. Good to know I wasn't too far off base.

td873 said:
I think you are mixing two different spots. The 7 out is a lot more weight than the last 3. Even if SVB is runining 20 backs, he has to run 20X9 balls. If you have the 7 out, you run 20 games in 20 breaks - or 40 shots [break + 1 shot]. You could never come close to that with the last 3.

-td
Click to expand...

I was being slightly facetious there. The poster was using an example of an opponent who runs out 95% of the time he gets a shot to show (I think) that the last 3 isn't all that big a spot. But it sounded like he was describing the 7 out. Either way, I don't think such a person exists, although maybe SVB on the little track can come close? I haven't seen enough of top players on the BB to know what is possible.

As KoolKat9Lives pointed out, all of the spots are significant for mere mortals like myself. I'd say I'm a C+ workin' on B-. :grin:

master9baller said:
Many times the player getting the spot chooses to ride the 8 early and gives up control of the table and the game. Other times it's a shooting galery with the 8 in a pocket just waiting to be made on combination. For this reason, especially when playing for only a short time I like giving the last 2-3 balls. It isn't as much of a factor because many times a good player would be out anyway after making the 2nd or 3rd to last ball.
Click to expand...

I was wondering about this, too...whether or not you should adjust your strategy when getting weight. Obviously you don't want to get too distracted by trying to ride the money balls, because you won't get into your normal stroke and also give up control of the game many times (as you said). The only time you might want to ride money balls is if you are stalling, and you do it to unnerve your opponent. Make a couple of 'em and he might start to get scared that you are gonna win on every shot, and forget to play his game.
 
simulation

I wrote a little computer program to simulate a very long (1 million games) series of 9-ball games between two players, based on their average balls per inning. This is obviously an oversimplified picture of 9-ball, but I hoped it would shed some light on things. Here are some results, if anyone is interested. The wild 8 is indeed better than the last two, but not as much as I expected. Same thing comparing 7 out vs. last three. The balls per inning scores are meant to reflect B and C players...

Both A and B average 4 balls per inning:

A gives B the last two, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.42368
A won 423685, B won 576315 out of 1000000 games
A won 14133 on break, B won 19353 on break

A gives B the 8 wild, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.41173
A won 411729, B won 588271 out of 1000000 games
A won 13751 on break, B won 47842 on break
B won 8873 additional games early

A gives B the last three, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.35795
A won 357947, B won 642053 out of 1000000 games
A won 11986 on break, B won 21651 on break

A gives B 7 out, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.33662
A won 336622, B won 663378 out of 1000000 games
A won 11347 on break, B won 84890 on break
B won 11737 additional games early
********************************************

A averages 4 bpi, B averages 2.75

A gives B the last two, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.50348
A won 503479, B won 496521 out of 1000000 games
A won 16628 on break, B won 16283 on break

A gives B the 8 wild, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.49126
A won 491262, B won 508738 out of 1000000 games
A won 16383 on break, B won 41586 on break
B won 7804 additional games early
********************************************

A averages 4 bpi, B averages 1.9

A gives B the last three, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.50549
A won 505494, B won 494506 out of 1000000 games
A won 16934 on break, B won 16417 on break

A gives B 7 out, winner breaks
A wins fraction: 0.48028
A won 480283, B won 519717 out of 1000000 games
A won 15873 on break, B won 66579 on break
B won 8919 additional games early
********************************************

So according to this, both the wild eight and the last two are pretty big spots. But that all depends on whether or not my program is realistic.
 
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donut said:
How much bigger of a spot is the eight than the last two? Judging by the responses to my last thread on combinations, I'm guessing the answer is "not much". It's funny because I have always thought of the last two as a pretty small spot, and the eight as a substantial spot. This may be more because of stories I've heard than personal experience, since I haven't had to give up weight to many people.

For example, in one match that Billy I. is commentating, he tells of a time that he played Efren when he was still named Cesar Morales. Unsurprisingly, Billy lost a set playing even, but took it down when Efren gave him the eight. As Billy said, "Nobody in the world could've given me the eight at that time." And I don't really doubt him when he says that. It makes the eight sound like a pretty big spot.
Click to expand...


In general, getting the 8 is better than the last 2. But, it all depends on what happens during the games. I never saw any game where you win on a spot ball during the break. Barring that aspect, sometimes your opponent makes the 8 early, or ties it up on purpose. During those games, last 2 would have been a better spot. Sometimes the spot ball hangs around for easy caroms and combos, other times it is lies close to the 9 for what would have been an easy finish anyway. Better off with the 8, but its not a guarantee.
 
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