New BCA Rules

FWIW, I dug out an old EXCEL spreadsheet that I made to collect the stats that were being generated from when the IPT was active... and from one tournament (the one that Thorsten Hohmann won in the summer of '06... the so-called National Championship (?)), there were a total of 11,980 games of 8-ball played... and in only 35 of those games was the 8-ball made on the break... for an occurence rate of only 0.003, or 3 out of 1000.

Now I realize that the IPT played on tight 9-footers and with slow cloth... but dems the numbers, folks, on that equipment. :rolleyes:
 
cigardave said:
FWIW, I dug out an old EXCEL spreadsheet that I made to collect the stats that were being generated from when the IPT was active... and from one tournament (the one that Thorsten Hohmann won in the summer of '06... the so-called National Championship (?)), there were a total of 11,980 games of 8-ball played... and in only 35 of those games was the 8-ball made on the break... for an occurence rate of only 0.003, or 3 out of 1000.

Now I realize that the IPT played on tight 9-footers and with slow cloth... but dems the numbers, folks, on that equipment. :rolleyes:
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In the IPT, the one-ball must be hit first. That's not what we're talking about here.
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
Well, no. See, if I'm right, we'd break even. If I'm wrong, I'd lose money. ...
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Well, no. You said it was a 10% chance to make the 8. Jay proposed betting his $1000 against your $100 on each shot. In a typical run of 10 tries, you make the 8 one time. You fail to make the 8 nine times. You collect $1000 for the single good shot, and pay out $900 for the nine bad shots. You end up $100 ahead for a typical set of 10. By my calculation, Jay is giving you 10% the best of it.

But hey, who am I to preach about innumeracy? I play the California Lottery.
 
I'm going to play devils advocate cause this bickering is fun to read.

Jay said he would collect $100 evertime Jude did not make the 8 and would pay $1000 when Jude made the 8.

If Jude breaks 10 times and makes the 8 ball once (10%) Jude would pay out $900 for the 9 breaks that the 8 didn't go and Jay would pay out $1000 for the one time it did go. Let's see, $1000 - $900 = $100 in Jude's pocket.

Looks like Jude wins if he can keep that 10%thing going.

Don't get angry at me, I just like to see this woofing.

BTW, Im siding with Jay here.

L8R...Ken
 
Bob Jewett said:
Well, no. You said it was a 10% chance to make the 8. Jay proposed betting his $1000 against your $100 on each shot. In a typical run of 10 tries, you make the 8 one time. You fail to make the 8 nine times. You collect $1000 for the single good shot, and pay out $900 for the nine bad shots. You end up $100 ahead for a typical set of 10. By my calculation, Jay is giving you 10% the best of it.

But hey, who am I to preach about innumeracy? I play the California Lottery.
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Yes and by your calculation, if I'm wrong and it's 8%, I'd lose money. However, 8% is still a helluva lot closer to 10% than "hardest shot in pool". If he's so sure, he'd give me 30:1.
 
Let's get this straight - Jay isn't arguing it's 9%. He's arguing it's much much less than that. So he thinks he's a lock to make money. I'm saying the scenario suggests I would break even. So the bet would be bad for me since if he's right, I pretty much lose and if I'm right, I pretty much break even. I want to think I'm a lock to make money, too. 30:1 would do it.
 
Looks like great minds thing alike...I was typing my reply at the same time as Bob Jewett ;) and saying the same thing!

L8R...Ken
 
BTW Jude, should you happen to beat the odds, say make two or three 8's in 15 tries, I think Jay might quit the bet...I think I would.

L8R...Ken
 
Well, the problem is, let's say we actually do this and in 100 breaks, I make it 8 times. Does that mean my claim of 10% is wrong? I would think that's evidence to SUGGEST I'm right yet I'd lose money.
 
cigardave said:
FWIW, I dug out an old EXCEL spreadsheet that I made to collect the stats that were being generated from when the IPT was active... and from one tournament (the one that Thorsten Hohmann won in the summer of '06... the so-called National Championship (?)), there were a total of 11,980 games of 8-ball played... and in only 35 of those games was the 8-ball made on the break... for an occurence rate of only 0.003, or 3 out of 1000.

Now I realize that the IPT played on tight 9-footers and with slow cloth... but dems the numbers, folks, on that equipment. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Thanks Dave for knocking my action. :eek:
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
Well, no. See, if I'm right, we'd break even. If I'm wrong, I'd lose money.

If you want to prove me wrong, we wouldn't be betting. We'd conduct a test over x number of breaks to see what the outcome was and that's fine with me. I'd be happy to see what I can do.

However, you're the one who brought up gambling as a solution which isn't proving who's right. It's about money. Well, if it's about money, I'm not flipping coins for 1k.
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In my barbox league, I broke using the 2nd ball almost exclusively and I made the 8 on the break twice. I broke aproximatly half the time so out of 140ish games I broke 70 and made the 8 once.

There are only so many ways you can hit the second ball without scratching so that cuts down the variables in play. Based on this, I would say your figures might be a little off Jude.

Of course I'm no Efren so who knows eh?
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
Yes and by your calculation, if I'm wrong and it's 8%, I'd lose money. However, 8% is still a helluva lot closer to 10% than "hardest shot in pool". If he's so sure, he'd give me 30:1.
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Jude I said "about" the hardest shot, not "the" hardest shot. I'd love to have 2% the best of it every time I made a bet. Las Vegas got rich with a similar advantage in Craps. Bet you didn't know that.

If you don't want to bet on a 10-1 shot, that's fine with me. I just thought that your representation of making the eight on the break was way out of line. If you want to make it about something else, like semantics, then more power to you. You "created" a line when you said 10% or more. I just offered to bet you that your line was wrong. Sorry you got offended.
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
Let's get this straight - Jay isn't arguing it's 9%. He's arguing it's much much less than that. So he thinks he's a lock to make money. I'm saying the scenario suggests I would break even. So the bet would be bad for me since if he's right, I pretty much lose and if I'm right, I pretty much break even. I want to think I'm a lock to make money, too. 30:1 would do it.
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I'm not asking for a lock Jude, but you are.
 
Jude Rosenstock said:
Well, the problem is, let's say we actually do this and in 100 breaks, I make it 8 times. Does that mean my claim of 10% is wrong? I would think that's evidence to SUGGEST I'm right yet I'd lose money.
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And if you made it ten times, you would win $800. But we're not gambling anyway, are we? :wink:
 
jay helfert said:
Jude I said "about" the hardest shot, not "the" hardest shot. I'd love to have 2% the best of it every time I made a bet. Las Vegas got rich with a similar advantage in Craps. Bet you didn't know that.

If you don't want to bet on a 10-1 shot, that's fine with me. I just thought that your representation of making the eight on the break was way out of line. If you want to make it about something else, like semantics, then more power to you. You "created" a line when you said 10% or more. I just offered to bet you that your line was wrong. Sorry you got offended.
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Jay, this was about semantics from the very start. You said "hardest shot" and I begged to differ under specific conditions (hitting the second ball). I didn't think I was "out of line" at all since I figured you were talking about hitting the apex ball which IS a very difficult thing to do. It was posted the IPT made the 8 on the break .003% which under those conditions and rules is perfectly accurate. Hitting the second ball however puts the odds much much higher WHICH IS WHY I agree that making the 8 on the break should not be a win. I see it happen WAY too often. Yes, I said "10%" not as a line but as an approximation. You're the one who made it a betting line and I'm saying, if you want a betting line, let's make it between your claim and mine.
 
You know what? I was wrong. I've given it serious thought and think I should have said 3%. I retract my original statement. 10% is COMPLETELY off.


So, please let me know if you would like to gamble with these revised odds assuming 3% is still significantly more than "hardest shot in pool".
 
You know what? I was wrong. I've given it serious thought and think I should have said 3%. I retract my original statement. 10% is COMPLETELY off.


So, please let me know if you would like to gamble with these revised odds assuming 3% is still significantly more than "hardest shot in pool".
 
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