Orcullo vs Woodward

8cree

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Looks like Woodward wants his shot at the beast...

Posted by Roy's Basement on the fb.
 

TATE

AzB Gold Mensch
Gold Member
Silver Member
Yep, it was inevitable. Thanks for posting it. Maybe the Action Room will come alive on this one.
 

skogstokig

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
good thing it's not on a tiny table. i might watch it, woodward is a brilliant 9-ball player
 

westcoast

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Why not play 10 ball rather than having these break rules? Seems like it could lead to arguments without a ref. Sky is a great player but definitely needs a spot in either 9 or 10 ball. I don’t gamble, but he must be a 10 rack underdog
 

Ken_4fun

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Kinda feel sorry Orcullo...

Behold I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves.

Woodward is hungry young wolf.

Ken
 

LHP5

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I think Sky vs Bergman in a long set would be a little more interesting. I’m a big fan of Dennis but I want to know who’s really number 2 in the US.
 

LHP5

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Well LHP5 that answer would be Mike Dechaine.

Maybe 6-7 years ago. Screw it, get Dechaine vs. Woodward/Bergman in the box. That would be a good ppv. I was also a big fan of Dechaine’s game and thought he was very overlooked.
 
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Poolplaya9

Tellin' it like it is...
Silver Member
Kinda feel sorry Orcullo...

Behold I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves.

Woodward is hungry young wolf.

Ken

That's crazy talk lol.

And on a side note, whoever is Sky's backer is somebody you want to gamble with as often as you possibly can if this kind of decision making is typical for them, because you are guaranteed to win a boat load of money off of them over time.

If it is Sky backing himself, well it's not too smart to be betting even money on a match that you have less than even odds of winning (if winning money is a main goal, and winning money is always a main goal when betting this large). Betting even money with less than even odds of wining guarantees that you lose money over time.

If it is a backer backing Sky it is even worse. Far, far, far worse. With a 50/50 backer/player split, Sky would have to be favored to win this match two out of three times just for the backer to break exactly even and keep from losing money. Obviously Sky is not even favored in most people's estimation, much less a 2-1 favorite.

Let's say you believe (and are right) that Sky is favored to win this match, not real heavily favored, but something like say 55% favored to win. Well if Sky were 55% favored to win this match, the backer would need to get 81.82% of the split just to break even over time and keep from losing money. But backer's aren't there to break even, they want to make money, so with Sky 55% favored to win the match the backer needs like 90% of the split for it to make any business sense at all.

Let's say this were a dead even match up. Most don't even think Sky is even odds to win, but for the sake of this example let's say he is dead even odds to win. If this were a dead even match up the backer needs to get a 100% backer/0% player split just to break even and keep from losing money over time. It is literally impossible for the backer to ever make any money at all over time with dead even match ups no matter the split, even if it is 100% to the backer.

If Sky is anything less than 50% to win this match, even 49.9%, the backer is guaranteed to lose money over time even with a 100%/0% split. As a backer there is literally no way to keep from losing money over the long run (at any split) by betting on the underdog (whether you realized they were the underdog or not). Most people think Sky is at least a slight underdog in this match, and I don't know of anyone that thinks he is heavily favored.

Unless Sky is not just favored but very heavily favored to win this match, AND you are getting the very heavy end of a very lop sided split, and not just one but BOTH of those things have to be true, then backing Sky in this match is a fool's errand guaranteed to lose lots of money over the long haul. That's not to say Sky can't or won't win, but backing it is financial lunacy unless both of those conditions are met and I highly doubt either is being met, much less both.
 

Ken_4fun

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
That's crazy talk lol.

And on a side note, whoever is Sky's backer is somebody you want to gamble with as often as you possibly can if this kind of decision making is typical for them, because you are guaranteed to win a boat load of money off of them over time.

If it is Sky backing himself, well it's not too smart to be betting even money on a match that you have less than even odds of winning (if winning money is a main goal, and winning money is always a main goal when betting this large). Betting even money with less than even odds of wining guarantees that you lose money over time.

If it is a backer backing Sky it is even worse. Far, far, far worse. With a 50/50 backer/player split, Sky would have to be favored to win this match two out of three times just for the backer to break exactly even and keep from losing money. Obviously Sky is not even favored in most people's estimation, much less a 2-1 favorite.

Let's say you believe (and are right) that Sky is favored to win this match, not real heavily favored, but something like say 55% favored to win. Well if Sky were 55% favored to win this match, the backer would need to get 81.82% of the split just to break even over time and keep from losing money. But backer's aren't there to break even, they want to make money, so with Sky 55% favored to win the match the backer needs like 90% of the split for it to make any business sense at all.

Let's say this were a dead even match up. Most don't even think Sky is even odds to win, but for the sake of this example let's say he is dead even odds to win. If this were a dead even match up the backer needs to get a 100% backer/0% player split just to break even and keep from losing money over time. It is literally impossible for the backer to ever make any money at all over time with dead even match ups no matter the split, even if it is 100% to the backer.

If Sky is anything less than 50% to win this match, even 49.9%, the backer is guaranteed to lose money over time even with a 100%/0% split. As a backer there is literally no way to keep from losing money over the long run (at any split) by betting on the underdog (whether you realized they were the underdog or not). Most people think Sky is at least a slight underdog in this match, and I don't know of anyone that thinks he is heavily favored.

Unless Sky is not just favored but very heavily favored to win this match, AND you are getting the very heavy end of a very lop sided split, and not just one but BOTH of those things have to be true, then backing Sky in this match is a fool's errand guaranteed to lose lots of money over the long haul. That's not to say Sky can't or won't win, but backing it is financial lunacy unless both of those conditions are met and I highly doubt either is being met, much less both.

Lighten up Francis.

Its just a game, and its just money. They print money every day.....

Ken
 

Poolplaya9

Tellin' it like it is...
Silver Member
Lighten up Francis.

Its just a game, and its just money. They print money every day.....

Ken

As I said in the post, if it isn't about winning money for the backer, and they are ok with making horrible bets and throwing it away for whatever their reasons, then the post doesn't apply to them. More power to them, throw it away all you want if it makes you happy, it's your money to do with as you please.

My post was intended for the backers that don't really have a clue what they are doing (and who rarely realize they don't have a clue what they are doing unless someone spells it out with real figures as I did), but who do actually care about their money and don't want to unknowingly be throwing it away. In those cases my post would be of substantial help and save them a lot of money.
 

Rimfirejunkie

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
As I said in the post, if it isn't about winning money for the backer, and they are ok with making horrible bets and throwing it away for whatever their reasons, then the post doesn't apply to them. More power to them, throw it away all you want if it makes you happy, it's your money to do with as you please.

My post was intended for the backers that don't really have a clue what they are doing (and who rarely realize they don't have a clue what they are doing unless someone spells it out with real figures as I did), but who do actually care about their money and don't want to unknowingly be throwing it away. In those cases my post would be of substantial help and save them a lot of money.


So how much you putting on DO?
 

sjm

Sweating it at Derby City
Silver Member
This might be tough action for Skyler.

Dennis is one of very few players in the world that moves stronger than him on the big table, which might mean that Skyler has to outplay Dennis by quite a bit in the offensive portion of the game to prevail. Perhaps he can do it, but I'd call it a difficult assignment.

Still, no matter who pulls this out, it is good to see elite players matching up to stay sharp. Both of these fine players will be better for it when the cloud of COVID is lifted from the world of professional pool.

Wishing both of them the best of luck.
 
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