AzB Gold Member
Looks like Woodward wants his shot at the beast...
Posted by Roy's Basement on the fb.
Posted by Roy's Basement on the fb.
Kinda feel sorry Orcullo...
Behold I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves.
Woodward is hungry young wolf.
That's crazy talk lol.
And on a side note, whoever is Sky's backer is somebody you want to gamble with as often as you possibly can if this kind of decision making is typical for them, because you are guaranteed to win a boat load of money off of them over time.
If it is Sky backing himself, well it's not too smart to be betting even money on a match that you have less than even odds of winning (if winning money is a main goal, and winning money is always a main goal when betting this large). Betting even money with less than even odds of wining guarantees that you lose money over time.
If it is a backer backing Sky it is even worse. Far, far, far worse. With a 50/50 backer/player split, Sky would have to be favored to win this match two out of three times just for the backer to break exactly even and keep from losing money. Obviously Sky is not even favored in most people's estimation, much less a 2-1 favorite.
Let's say you believe (and are right) that Sky is favored to win this match, not real heavily favored, but something like say 55% favored to win. Well if Sky were 55% favored to win this match, the backer would need to get 81.82% of the split just to break even over time and keep from losing money. But backer's aren't there to break even, they want to make money, so with Sky 55% favored to win the match the backer needs like 90% of the split for it to make any business sense at all.
Let's say this were a dead even match up. Most don't even think Sky is even odds to win, but for the sake of this example let's say he is dead even odds to win. If this were a dead even match up the backer needs to get a 100% backer/0% player split just to break even and keep from losing money over time. It is literally impossible for the backer to ever make any money at all over time with dead even match ups no matter the split, even if it is 100% to the backer.
If Sky is anything less than 50% to win this match, even 49.9%, the backer is guaranteed to lose money over time even with a 100%/0% split. As a backer there is literally no way to keep from losing money over the long run (at any split) by betting on the underdog (whether you realized they were the underdog or not). Most people think Sky is at least a slight underdog in this match, and I don't know of anyone that thinks he is heavily favored.
Unless Sky is not just favored but very heavily favored to win this match, AND you are getting the very heavy end of a very lop sided split, and not just one but BOTH of those things have to be true, then backing Sky in this match is a fool's errand guaranteed to lose lots of money over the long haul. That's not to say Sky can't or won't win, but backing it is financial lunacy unless both of those conditions are met and I highly doubt either is being met, much less both.
Lighten up Francis.
Its just a game, and its just money. They print money every day.....
As I said in the post, if it isn't about winning money for the backer, and they are ok with making horrible bets and throwing it away for whatever their reasons, then the post doesn't apply to them. More power to them, throw it away all you want if it makes you happy, it's your money to do with as you please.
My post was intended for the backers that don't really have a clue what they are doing (and who rarely realize they don't have a clue what they are doing unless someone spells it out with real figures as I did), but who do actually care about their money and don't want to unknowingly be throwing it away. In those cases my post would be of substantial help and save them a lot of money.