Orcullo vs Woodward

westcoast

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I find it hard to understand why Woodward would play Orcullo in such a long race without a spot. Perhaps he will surprise me- play great and pull off a major upset, but he is a distinct underdog. Maybe the fact that they are playing 9 ball will help, but Sky would be at least a 10 to 15 rack underdog in 10 ball.
 

spartan

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Not sure if Sky was drunk :D when he agreed to this match but I can't believe Sky would play even on 9 ft against Dennis
I mean Sky is about same level as Justin
Dennis beat Justin by about 20 racks on small tables
And this is race to 100 on big tables
I shudder to think of the winning margin of Dennis
I will believe it when I see it on the stream next month. As they say, 1 month is long time in pool so anything can happen before the match
 

LHP5

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Dennis is definitely the favorite, but I would not be surprised if Skylar won. Not to start an age/prime debate but isn’t Skylar entering his prime and Dennis leaving his? Again I’m a huge Dennis fan but he may have lost a step or two.
 

8cree

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Dennis is definitely the favorite, but I would not be surprised if Skylar won. Not to start an age/prime debate but isn’t Skylar entering his prime and Dennis leaving his? Again I’m a huge Dennis fan but he may have lost a step or two.
He was high steppin' and free wheelin' on the bar box last week... beast mode was in full effect.
 

jay helfert

Shoot Pool, not people
Gold Member
Silver Member
Not sure if Sky was drunk :D when he agreed to this match but I can't believe Sky would play even on 9 ft against Dennis
I mean Sky is about same level as Justin
Dennis beat Justin by about 20 racks on small tables
And this is race to 100 on big tables
I shudder to think of the winning margin of Dennis
I will believe it when I see it on the stream next month. As they say, 1 month is long time in pool so anything can happen before the match

Everything is not always the way it seems. Enough said.
 

8cree

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Everything is not always the way it seems. Enough said.

That is not even close to enough being said. I'm sure we all would appreciate if you would elaborate on what is "not always the way it seems". Thanks in advance:D
 

jokrswylde

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I find it hard to understand why Woodward would play Orcullo in such a long race without a spot.

Why is this? I get the Dennis is the favorite, but aren't both these men professionals? At some level don't you stop asking for spots? I mean I can't imagine , "Hey Tiger I know you are the favorite at Augusta, but I will play the tourney if you will give me 2 strokes a side...."or " Hey Belichick, you guys are favored big over us this Sunday..If you spot us 10 points we will come and play. ":thumbup:

Maybe pro pool is just different, but I can't imagine another professional sport where one pro would ask another for a spot in order to play...Anyway, just curiosity on my part.
 

westcoast

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Why is this? I get the Dennis is the favorite, but aren't both these men professionals? At some level don't you stop asking for spots? I mean I can't imagine , "Hey Tiger I know you are the favorite at Augusta, but I will play the tourney if you will give me 2 strokes a side...."or " Hey Belichick, you guys are favored big over us this Sunday..If you spot us 10 points we will come and play. ":thumbup:

Maybe pro pool is just different, but I can't imagine another professional sport where one pro would ask another for a spot in order to play...Anyway, just curiosity on my part.

I see your viewpoint, but the difference is that the pros get paid even if they don’t win in other sports. I didn’t read the match details carefully, but if Sky isn’t getting an appearance fee he should negotiate a spot so he can improve his chances of winning. He’s probably only 20 percent to win with no spot
 

skogstokig

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Dennis is definitely the favorite, but I would not be surprised if Skylar won. Not to start an age/prime debate but isn’t Skylar entering his prime and Dennis leaving his? Again I’m a huge Dennis fan but he may have lost a step or two.

he looks a lot older than he is. both pagulayan and niels feijen are older, and lee van is the same age.
 

LHP5

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
he looks a lot older than he is. both pagulayan and niels feijen are older, and lee van is the same age.

That’s what I mean though. Dennis is 40 or 41? What’s the prime of most players? Mid 20’s to mid 30’s? Skylar is like 27? In theory Skylar should be entering his prime and he’s been crushing people in 9 ball from tournament results. I do believe Dennis has lost a step, but even then he’s still one of the best. Can we all say he’s just as good as he was 5-6 years ago? In rotation anyways.
 

one stroke

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Well one thing is certainly the case , ,Sky is not Shane who has a serious mental edge over DO so DO will play with confidence and until I see it to believe it , I got DO behind Chang , Shane as the best money players on the planet till Filler steps up to that class only a matter of time if he's not already there I certainly ain't betting against him
Sky has a world of talent but he's got to show me he can grind out a race to 100 against DO before I believe he's in that class


1
 

TATE

AzB Gold Mensch
Gold Member
Silver Member
Im no fan of Dennis but if the table is tight
Dennis should win this by a fair margin

You are correct about the game. I assume you don't know him. If you did, I'm confident you would be a fan. He's not just a great pool player, he's a great guy. I can't think of a reason to dislike him. He's supportive of his friends and people really look up to him. He's a confident player but a humble and decent man.
 

LHP5

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
You are correct about the game. I assume you don't know him. If you did, I'm confident you would be a fan. He's not just a great pool player, he's a great guy. I can't think of a reason to dislike him. He's supportive of his friends and people really look up to him. He's a confident player but a humble and decent man.

Hell I even remember hearing a story on a stream that like he was helping Skylar with his break by racking for him and letting him break over and over. Not sure if it was true or if this is entirely accurate but I’ve heard he actually helps players out.
 

Johnny Rosato

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
That's crazy talk lol.

And on a side note, whoever is Sky's backer is somebody you want to gamble with as often as you possibly can if this kind of decision making is typical for them, because you are guaranteed to win a boat load of money off of them over time.

If it is Sky backing himself, well it's not too smart to be betting even money on a match that you have less than even odds of winning (if winning money is a main goal, and winning money is always a main goal when betting this large). Betting even money with less than even odds of wining guarantees that you lose money over time.

If it is a backer backing Sky it is even worse. Far, far, far worse. With a 50/50 backer/player split, Sky would have to be favored to win this match two out of three times just for the backer to break exactly even and keep from losing money. Obviously Sky is not even favored in most people's estimation, much less a 2-1 favorite.

Let's say you believe (and are right) that Sky is favored to win this match, not real heavily favored, but something like say 55% favored to win. Well if Sky were 55% favored to win this match, the backer would need to get 81.82% of the split just to break even over time and keep from losing money. But backer's aren't there to break even, they want to make money, so with Sky 55% favored to win the match the backer needs like 90% of the split for it to make any business sense at all.

Let's say this were a dead even match up. Most don't even think Sky is even odds to win, but for the sake of this example let's say he is dead even odds to win. If this were a dead even match up the backer needs to get a 100% backer/0% player split just to break even and keep from losing money over time. It is literally impossible for the backer to ever make any money at all over time with dead even match ups no matter the split, even if it is 100% to the backer.

If Sky is anything less than 50% to win this match, even 49.9%, the backer is guaranteed to lose money over time even with a 100%/0% split. As a backer there is literally no way to keep from losing money over the long run (at any split) by betting on the underdog (whether you realized they were the underdog or not). Most people think Sky is at least a slight underdog in this match, and I don't know of anyone that thinks he is heavily favored.

Unless Sky is not just favored but very heavily favored to win this match, AND you are getting the very heavy end of a very lop sided split, and not just one but BOTH of those things have to be true, then backing Sky in this match is a fool's errand guaranteed to lose lots of money over the long haul. That's not to say Sky can't or won't win, but backing it is financial lunacy unless both of those conditions are met and I highly doubt either is being met, much less both.
That's a helluva lot of double talk, I don't know if I should shit or flush first.
 

Poolplaya9

Tellin' it like it is...
Silver Member
That's a helluva lot of double talk, I don't know if I should shit or flush first.

I figured some people were going to have trouble with the concepts so I had already tried to spell it out real clear, but tell me the part you fail to understand or disagree with and I will further simplify it if possible.
 

jay helfert

Shoot Pool, not people
Gold Member
Silver Member
Hell I even remember hearing a story on a stream that like he was helping Skylar with his break by racking for him and letting him break over and over. Not sure if it was true or if this is entirely accurate but I’ve heard he actually helps players out.

Dennis has been a mentor to both Skyler and Justin. He is 41, but in the Filipino pool world that's not old. They don't lose their desire to play the game, like so many others do as they get older. For them it's a lifelong vocation. Efren stayed on top until about age 60 and Francisco is still cruising along at age 56. I can see Dennis playing high level pool for at least another 5-10 years. IMO he is still at the peak of his game. I don't see any chinks in the armor yet. He will still practice 8-10 hours a day if he is getting ready for a big event or an important match. There is no substitute for that type of dedication.
 
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