Siming Chen vs Donny Mills

BasementDweller said:
"Only 1?

I count at least 6 others with a higher Fargo Rating.

Can you explain why they wouldn’t also be slight favorites against Donny?"

Sure. They would all be underdogs against Siming too. Do the math.
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The question was not whether they could beat Siming Chen, but why they would not be slight favorites against Donny.

Some on here didn't like her chances against Donny because they felt that Fargorate of women were not accurate. She performed as expected against Donny, according to Fargorate.

So, the question remains... Why do you not feel, based on Fargorate, that there are not at least 5 more women who are a slight favorite over him?

Or does everyone with a vagina between their legs need to PROVE their Fargorate is accurate? But those with a penis get a pass?
 
ShortBusRuss said:
The question was not whether they could beat Siming Chen, but why they would not be slight favorites against Donny.

Some on here didn't like her chances against Donny because they felt that Fargorate of women were not accurate. She performed as expected against Donny, according to Fargorate.

So, the question remains... Why do you not feel, based on Fargorate, that there are not at least 5 more women who are a slight favorite over him?

Or does everyone with a vagina between their legs need to PROVE their Fargorate is accurate? But those with a penis get a pass?
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I think he is agreeing with you.
 
With one set of 10-ball and two sets of 9-ball against Donny she’s got to be nearing 100 games against him. I’m curious what her “performance-specific rating” against Donny is. I’m not saying it means anything but I bet it’s below 780.


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MattPoland said:
I have a lot of faith in FargoRate including across the sexes. It’s definitely got the ballpark right. The Wilkie match showed what we already know, strong players can beat other strong players in any given set. The Mills match showed she can hang. Probably not dominate.

I would love to see her match up higher, e.g. Melling, Morris, Hatch, Immonen, Deuel, Archer, Hohmann, VanDenBerg, etc. I could see her doing well in many of those matches where neither is favorite on paper. Her rating is also in the ballpark of Sky’s and I have a feeling that’s not right. Perhaps his rating lags behind the level of play he’s recently achieved. But I see him giving her a lot more trouble than the ratings suggest. But I see him giving those same players I listed trouble. So that’s probably more on him than her or Fargo.


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Sky's is lagging. It only the last 6 months or so he has gone from great to Monster.
 
Nostroke said:
2 women (minimum) finished in the top 20 at the DCC 9 Ball- First was Sarah Rousey @20 th at Exec W and then im 90% certain another female finished higher 5-6 years later. Just cant remember who. Seeing as the field probably has averaged 3% female over the years-not all that bad.
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Being in the top twenty won't garner a very big payday and I would posit even begin to pay the expenses of competing at DC.
 
Nostroke said:
2 women (minimum) finished in the top 20 at the DCC 9 Ball- First was Sarah Rousey @20 th at Exec W and then im 90% certain another female finished higher 5-6 years later. Just cant remember who. Seeing as the field probably has averaged 3% female over the years-not all that bad.
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Yes, Rousey's good DCC 9-Ball finish was 20th/30th in 2004.

The only higher (barely) female finishes I spotted in a quick look were Karen Corr and Allison Fisher both 19th/29th in 2008.
 
overlord said:
Being in the top twenty won't garner a very big payday and I would posit even begin to pay the expenses of competing at DC.
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Ok So looking at it this way, i guess there were 380-480 fools (mostly male) there this year in every division.
 
AtLarge said:
Yes, Rousey's good DCC 9-Ball finish was 20th/30th in 2004.

The only higher (barely) female finishes I spotted in a quick look were Karen Corr and Allison Fisher both 19th/29th in 2008.
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I dont keep records so not too bad of a recall for a brain that's been through a lot of partying and has been around in 8 different decades and if i make it 10 more months to 2020-9!
 
Nostroke said:
Ok So looking at it this way, i guess there were 380-480 fools (mostly male) there this year in every division.
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Hey, I resemble that remark.:angry: I've been there eight times and never once came close to covering expenses. It might help if I entered.:) Which reminds me....

A guy named Joe finds himself in dire trouble. His business has gone bust and he's in serious financial trouble. He's so desperate he decides to ask God for help. He begins to pray...

"God, please help me. I've lost my business and if I don't get some money, I'm going to lose my house as well. Please let me win the lotto."

Lotto night comes and somebody else wins it.

Joe again prays...

"God, please let me win the lotto! I've lost my business, my house and I'm going to lose my car as well."

Lotto night comes and Joe still has no luck.

Once again, he prays...

"My God, why have you forsaken me?? I've lost my business, my house, and my car. My wife and children are starving. I don't often ask you for help and I have always been a good servant to you. PLEASE just let me win the lotto this one time so I can get my life back in order."

Suddenly there is a blinding flash of light as the heavens open and Joe is confronted by the voice of God Himself: "Joe, meet Me halfway on this. Buy a ticket."​
 
Black-Balled said:
Huh? We are talking proficiency at the game, not the game's viability as a career.
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My point is that this series of matches does vindicate the Fargo Rating but has much less to do with the ongoing gender debate.

We have gaping disparities in the environmental aspects of the players.
 
gxman said:
So 57-52 after 109 games. What would fargo had predicted according to their ratings?
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Their rating difference is 30 points apart. In 109 games that would predict an average result of 60-49.

Their actual head-to-head record would put them 13 rating points apart with an uncertainty larger than 13 ratings points. Not enough data. You could say that Siming slightly underperformed.

Fargo rating difference of two players based on head-to-head games:

Rating difference = 100 * logbase2 ( games_won_by_player_1 / games_won_by_player_2)

The logarithm base 2 can be found if you have log base 10 or natural logs available: log2(x) = log10(x)/log10(2) for example.

Or you can just type into the google search window: "log2(57/52)*100" <-- exactly that text less the quotes
and get 13.245 as the indicated rating points difference.
 
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Bob Jewett said:
Hey, I resemble that remark.:angry: I've been there eight times and never once came close to covering expenses. It might help if I entered.:) Which reminds me....

A guy named Joe finds himself in dire trouble. His business has gone bust and he's in serious financial trouble. He's so desperate he decides to ask God for help. He begins to pray...

"God, please help me. I've lost my business and if I don't get some money, I'm going to lose my house as well. Please let me win the lotto."

Lotto night comes and somebody else wins it.

Joe again prays...

"God, please let me win the lotto! I've lost my business, my house and I'm going to lose my car as well."

Lotto night comes and Joe still has no luck.

Once again, he prays...

"My God, why have you forsaken me?? I've lost my business, my house, and my car. My wife and children are starving. I don't often ask you for help and I have always been a good servant to you. PLEASE just let me win the lotto this one time so I can get my life back in order."

Suddenly there is a blinding flash of light as the heavens open and Joe is confronted by the voice of God Himself: "Joe, meet Me halfway on this. Buy a ticket."​
Click to expand...

Ha Ha, thanks for a good laugh.
 
gxman said:
So 57-52 after 109 games. What would fargo had predicted according to their ratings?
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It says a fair match to 10 would give Donny one game on the wire. So a race to 50 would predict (ish) Siming up 50-45. Add 7 more games to both players and it’s 57-52 (or 57-51 if Siming got that extra 1 out of 10 in those seven games).


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Bob Jewett said:
That would put them 13 rating points apart with an uncertainty larger than 13 ratings points. Not enough data.
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I
Chen's fargo just dropped from 783 to 780.

Per an earlier post Donny's fargo was 749, now 750.

I guess adjusted for this weekend's match.

I'm not sure if Wilkie's match is counted into fargo?
 
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gxman said:
I

Chen's fargo just dropped from 783 to 780.



Per an earlier post Donny's fargo was 749, now 750.



I guess adjusted for this weekend's match.
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You get a different answer for Siming if you look her up differently...

www.fargorate.com top 100 world F: 780
fairmatch.fargorate.com top 10 world F: 783
fairmatch.fargorate.com player lookup: 783

Same for Donny
www.fargorate.com top 100 USA M: 750
fairmatch.fargorate.com player lookup: 749

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Anyone playing 12000 miles from home in a country with a completely different culture and without a lot of country mates to hang with as the filipinos all do, im guessing would on average play at least a few percent under their Fargo for quite a while.. The exception is Chang I guess.

Even within this country- NBA, NFL etc- Home Field is a big advantage.
 
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