Siming Chen vs Donny Mills

1. Chen did not under perform. That is an excuse for the Fargo system which should have predicted a bigger win for Chen, one that is unnecessary to make as any ELO system has a weakness in regards to groups of players playing each other and not intermixing much. Fargo admits to this effect, although states it is minimal which is true.

The women's ratings are slightly inflated relative to the men's due to the fact that they mostly play one another and not men all the time.

Mills saw this discrepancy and he made those comments about his rating. In the end, he was proved right. Despite losing, the score was so close that it does not correlate with the Fargo ratings. Moreover, it can be argued that Donny was actually the one who under-performed. I believe he did a bit, even at his current level. To add to the complexity of all this, as others have already mentioned - the format was setup to Chen's advantage.



While these systems are incredibly robust at maintaining accurate ratings even across large regions or diverse groups relatively speaking, they are not perfect due to this effect. The more segregated a group is, the more divergence there can be in the ratings.


2. The "battle of the sexes" nonsense was settled back during the IPT in 2006. The North American Open was clear evidence the women cannot play to the level men can. The majority of all top female pros played in that tournament, 8 ball, round-robin format. They got crushed. I was there, it was difficult to watch. There was no aspect of the game where they had parity with the men except for maybe a completely wide open table with no obstacles and medium to short range shots. They would run that out. But then again, so could an APA 6.

3. Some have taken this win as some kind of victory for women's pool in relating to men. Quite a bizarre and delusional conclusion. We are talking the top female player, not only top but exceptionally strong female player - playing a mid to lower-level, non-touring male pro who is actually a part-time pool player, and barely won.

This reminds me of when Williams (tennis) played the #200 ranked male on the tour, and got stomped. Although the gap between men and women in pool is NOT as wide as it is in tennis due to the fact that pool is not athletic, it's still a pretty large gap.


Look, we all love the ladies (except some of you weirdos) but some of you get a little too passionate about the concept that there could be equality in pool between men and women. As if feminist ideals somehow could apply to pool. I find it interesting and exciting to see a female be very strong and challenge the men. But not from a feminist angle, but instead from an underdog perspective. That and it is better to celebrate exceptionalism, which a woman who can play as well as the men - is an example of something exceptional.
 
You get a different answer for Siming if you look her up differently...

www.fargorate.com top 100 world F: 780
fairmatch.fargorate.com top 10 world F: 783
fairmatch.fargorate.com player lookup: 783

Same for Donny
www.fargorate.com top 100 USA M: 750
fairmatch.fargorate.com player lookup: 749

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Mike Page could answer this definitively I'm sure, but my guess is that player lookup will fetch the most current rating from the database, whereas those Top X lists might be compiled periodically and thus could have slightly out-of-date ratings.
 
According to Fargo in a race to 57 she is a 12 game favorite. She is 783 and I am 748. 12 games on the wire in a race to 57 is 50/50.
 
Anyone playing 12000 miles from home in a country with a completely different culture and without a lot of country mates to hang with as the filipinos all do, im guessing would on average play at least a few percent under their Fargo for quite a while.. The exception is Chang I guess.

Even within this country- NBA, NFL etc- Home Field is a big advantage.

She wasn't a exception she shot under her Fargo Rate


1
 
And yes, I always miss straight in shots like i did against her the last 2 days. Especially against guys in my hometown I give the last 6 and the break to. Sarcasm. I don’t know why I missed quite a few easy shots.
 
And yes, I always miss straight in shots like i did against her the last 2 days. Especially against guys in my hometown I give the last 6 and the break to. Sarcasm. I don’t know why I missed quite a few easy shots.

It seemed you never got really comfortable..just a guess but probably over thought somethings & didn't really get in zone like you use to doing & let memory muscle take over...Props for getting up there on your own dime...might have been in your head a lil...For the record..I bet on you..and it was a exciting match & sweat.
 
1. Chen did not under perform. That is an excuse for the Fargo system which should have predicted a bigger win for Chen, one that is unnecessary to make as any ELO system has a weakness in regards to groups of players playing each other and not intermixing much. Fargo admits to this effect, although states it is minimal which is true.

The women's ratings are slightly inflated relative to the men's due to the fact that they mostly play one another and not men all the time.

I have never seen Mike Page say that women's ratings are inflated relative to the men's, or that there is any logic behind the idea that, since women mostly play other women, they will be underrated. To the extent that weak connections are a problem (and he has said it's not really a problem with men & women because there are lots of connections), I don't think it necessarily means that the weaker group will be underrated relative to the stronger group. I'd take Mike Page's word for it if he said so, just not someone else's. :p
 
And yes, I always miss straight in shots like i did against her the last 2 days. Especially against guys in my hometown I give the last 6 and the break to. Sarcasm. I don’t know why I missed quite a few easy shots.

Thanks for the show, man. Sorry you both couldn't win.

But I enjoyed you vs ussery in 05 better ;)
 
She wasn't a exception she shot under her Fargo Rate


1

Either you misunderstood or I did. He was talking about Chang (JL Chang) is the exception, and that Chen (Siming) did play below her rating due to the 12000 miles aways from home.
 
Grilled Cheese,
Nice post but you're asking for it. SBR will be along soon to show us all again how well he can spell "vagina" since we all just hate women so much.
 
Put her on a tight table with broken in cloth against any 750+ and good luck...she is clearly used to near perfect conditions where moving the cueball is fairly easy no matter the angle and the pockets play soft. She does have an amazingly consistent and powerful stroke, but she made a lot of small errors in the match and got away with them. And luckily Mills was a bit off.

As an aside, when was the last time you've seen a 780 scratch after making the 9 ball? I believe it happened at least once, maybe twice to Chen
 
I have never seen Mike Page say that women's ratings are inflated relative to the men's, or that there is any logic behind the idea that, since women mostly play other women, they will be underrated. To the extent that weak connections are a problem (and he has said it's not really a problem with men & women because there are lots of connections), I don't think it necessarily means that the weaker group will be underrated relative to the stronger group. I'd take Mike Page's word for it if he said so, just not someone else's. :p

Yes, that's right. A big problem for ELO approaches (but not us) is resistance for a weakly coupled group to adjust based on new information. The effect shown in this blog post (essentially Asian women going down a point) does not happen with a usual ELO-type scheme. For us the adjustment is immediate and complete.

Women are pretty well coupled to men. We could see fluctuations of a couple points. But we're not going to see 10 points

Somebody asked about Siming's "performance rating" for her match with Wilkie. For a 4-12 loss to a 742, that assesses her games at 575 speed for that match. I don't know what to make of that, though. A couple years ago at Turning Stone, Shane lost 3-9 to Shaw (performing at 640 speed). Later in the tournament, Shane beat Shaw 13-4, performing at 990-speed for that match. The Wilkie match is not in yet. I put it and the match with Kristina in, and then decided I wanted to do this analysis from just the Mills games. So that stuff will go in later.

http://www.fargorate.com/fargorateblog/archive/battle-of-the-sexes-rating-changes/
 
... her match with Wilkie. For a 4-12 loss to a 742, that assesses her games at 575 speed for that match.
... Shane lost 3-9 to Shaw (performing at 640 speed).
... Later in the tournament, Shane beat Shaw 13-4, performing at 990-speed
Which leads to the question: Do some players have more variation in performance than would be predicted by their ratings and the lengths of matches? Are some very good players inconsistent? I suppose you would need to know whether it was winner breaks or not.
 
According to Fargo in a race to 57 she is a 12 game favorite. She is 783 and I am 748. 12 games on the wire in a race to 57 is 50/50.


I like the Fargo system and I think it is the best we have, but it has some flaws based on the nature of ELO systems. That and the name is awful.

As you can see, the excuse makers are claiming that she played bad, which is why you didn't get thrashed. Chen played very close to her top speed. You did not, yet it was anyone's game.

It is in the interest of the system and its creators to promote the universality of it, but like I said, rates can be inflated or deflated based on region or groups. These groups have to interact (play against one another) in order for the system to work. Men and women do play, but not nearly as much as necessary to ensure the system is as accurate as possible.

Chen is basically even up against this group of players?

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.


Mika Immonen FIN784
Nick VanDenBerg NED784
Kai Lun Hsu TPE784
Ruslan Chinakhov RUS783
Chris Melling GBR783
Marco Teutscher NED783
Efren Reyes PHI783
Roberto Gomez PHI782
Karl Boyes GBR782
Francisco Bustamante PHI781
Thorsten Hohmann GER781
Corey Deuel USA781
Siming Chen CHN780
Mateusz Sniegocki POL779
Rodney Morris USA779
Imran Majid GBR779
Can Wang CHN779
Francisco Diaz-Pizarro ESP778
Denis Grabe EST778
Aloysius Yapp SGP778
Petri Makkonen FIN778


Nuff said.

:thumbup:
 
Somebody asked about Siming's "performance rating" for her match with Wilkie. For a 4-12 loss to a 742, that assesses her games at 575 speed for that match. I don't know what to make of that, though. A couple years ago at Turning Stone, Shane lost 3-9 to Shaw (performing at 640 speed). Later in the tournament, Shane beat Shaw 13-4, performing at 990-speed for that match. The Wilkie match is not in yet. I put it and the match with Kristina in, and then decided I wanted to do this analysis from just the Mills games. So that stuff will go in later.



http://www.fargorate.com/fargorateblog/archive/battle-of-the-sexes-rating-changes/

I’m not sure who asked about the PSR against Wilkie. I had asked what her “performance rating” was for her combined 2 sets of 9-ball and 1 set of 10-ball against Donny only. Obviously 100+ games against Donny across multiple sessions is much more interesting than <20 games against Shaun in a single session


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My eye test says she plays about 10-15pts above Donny and 15 below all those monsters around 780.

So 760-765 would be fair.

If she played a series of men's matches, I think her Fargo would continue adjust to around 765. Look for it to drop a couple more if the Wilkie match gets added.
 
And yes, I always miss straight in shots like i did against her the last 2 days. Especially against guys in my hometown I give the last 6 and the break to. Sarcasm. I don’t know why I missed quite a few easy shots.

I was in Georgia, 1989 in a 9 ball event (hell of a drive from CO) races to 9. I had my opponent literally on the ropes 8-1 and running out. I missed a key shot, and surprisingly lost 9-8. I thought about that miss allot. What I found, within that miss lied a ''flaw'' in my game. Took me two weeks to figure it out....what the heck did I do wrong???? Shortly thereafter I won my first Pro event, from the losers bracket, over 110 players in this event. If your making the same type of mistake, which it sounds like, that's a good thing and it's fixable.

What I found out, from years of teaching.....''within that shot/miss lies your answer''.

You can take that too the bank.
 
... As an aside, when was the last time you've seen a 780 scratch after making the 9 ball? I believe it happened at least once, maybe twice to Chen

I think you mean after making the 8-ball (trying to get position for the 9-ball). She did that twice in Set #1 (Games 4 and 10) on Saturday.
 
According to Fargo in a race to 57 she is a 12 game favorite. She is 783 and I am 748. 12 games on the wire in a race to 57 is 50/50.


In the Find a Fair Match part of FargoRate it looks like that difference is...

HOT: 2 on the wire to 10
MEDIUM: 1 on the wire to 10
MILD: Even

d8e93956d7fd9e636d211958052ae4c1.jpg


I’m not 100% sure where to find 12 on the wire to 57 but that seems ballpark (11.4) if you use HOT. Using MEDIUM it’d be 5.7 on the wire.

Does anyone know if it’s more common to use HOT vs. MEDIUM?


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