So much luck it can't be luck... yet it is, I don't get it

F

Fastolfe

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I just finished playing the poolhall owner for much of the evening. The guy only plays 9-ball and wins a lot, but many MANY of his wins are luck. Whenever there's a vague chance of reaching the 9, he goes for it, even if the alternative is an easy pot of the 8 and replacement on the 9. And more often than not, it works.

I know the rule that says recurring luck is called skill, but I clocked him and it's just impossible.

We played 30 games, and he won 19 of them as follows:

3 x 9-balls on the break,
4 x very unlikely caroms on the 9, but conceivably played as planned,
9 x amazingly f...ing lucky shots, such as whacking the legal ball, doing 2 rails, touching the 9, the 9 grazes on some other ball and sinks into some pocket. In short, shots that I'm 100% sure are pure unadulterated luck.
3 x normally pocketing the 9.

So let's say he won 7 out of 30 games on skills and 12 on luck (and that's a generous assumption). I think a statistician would say 12/30 is a probability too high to be explained by luck alone. Yet believe me, it was. There was no way in hell those 12 shots were planned.

People who know him tell me he's been playing like that for 20 years (and with a snooker cue no less), and he gets luckier as he gets more drunk. Having known him for several months, it seems entirely true.

How does one get so lucky? I've never seen anyone play like him. It drives me bonkers: I miss a ball, I often even leave a decent safety, and *whack* the 9 goes in god-knows-how. Again and again and again... I want to know how he does that.
 
Fastolfe said:
I just finished playing the poolhall owner for much of the evening. The guy only plays 9-ball and wins a lot, but many MANY of his wins are luck. Whenever there's a vague chance of reaching the 9, he goes for it, even if the alternative is an easy pot of the 8 and replacement on the 9. And more often than not, it works.

I know the rule that says recurring luck is called skill, but I clocked him and it's just impossible.

We played 30 games, and he won 19 of them as follows:

3 x 9-balls on the break,
4 x very unlikely caroms on the 9, but conceivably played as planned,
9 x amazingly f...ing lucky shots, such as whacking the legal ball, doing 2 rails, touching the 9, the 9 grazes on some other ball and sinks into some pocket. In short, shots that I'm 100% sure are pure unadulterated luck.
3 x normally pocketing the 9.

So let's say he won 7 out of 30 games on skills and 12 on luck (and that's a generous assumption). I think a statistician would say 12/30 is a probability too high to be explained by luck alone. Yet believe me, it was. There was no way in hell those 12 shots were planned.

People who know him tell me he's been playing like that for 20 years (and with a snooker cue no less), and he gets luckier as he gets more drunk. Having known him for several months, it seems entirely true.

How does one get so lucky? I've never seen anyone play like him. It drives me bonkers: I miss a ball, I often even leave a decent safety, and *whack* the 9 goes in god-knows-how. Again and again and again... I want to know how he does that.
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Power of the mind to be honest with you.

Confidence can do wonders including bending the rules of reality.

The good news is, eventually if you play him in a set and stay patient, all that stuff is sure to run out.

I played a dude kind of like him last night in 3 sets. He's a player that will ALWAYS try to run out no matter what shot he is on. He doesn't even know the definition of safety.

It came back and got him last night, and I mean baddd. I thought I was going to get stabbed out in the parking lot.

I wonder how he'd feel if he knew I was holding back on him...
 
peteypooldude said:
The right player gets on the table.He wont look so lucky:grin-square:
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But that's the thing: I'm a decent enough player (although I do hate 9-ball and it often makes my game slip) and I can run tables, but if I leave *anything*, he'll play something bizarre and often sink the 9. If he doesn't, there's a fair chance he'll have moved half the balls and left the cueball in a rotten position. It's crazy, when he shoots, you know the 9 will move, and you know it will take a tortuous route to one of the six pockets.

I'm ranked 3rd in the league. the second plays very well and also plays the national tournaments. He gets beaten often too. The first is an alien of a player who never misses a shot (and doesn't give a toss about either league or national tournaments) and he's the only one who can beat the poolhall owner all the time, save once this year, which he still rants about today.

This said, the owner never plays races over 3 games, which tells me he certainly exploits the luck factor, and I can beat him easily in 8-ball and 14.1, when I can get him to play them at all, which isn't often.
 
peteypooldude said:
The right player gets on the table.He wont look so lucky:grin-square:
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Unfortunately, that isn't necessarily true. There was a guy back in NY, was almost unbeatable as long as he played in our home room. He won the NYS 9 Ball Championship two or three times. Just seemed to fall in it time after time after time. He just got the roles and continued to get them. Any where else he played he would usually lose, in tournaments two and out. He didn't often play for money out of the home room. Some people are like that, sometimes.
 
Fastolfe said:
But that's the thing: I'm a decent enough player (although I do hate 9-ball and it often makes my game slip) and I can run tables, but if I leave *anything*, he'll play something bizarre and often sink the 9. If he doesn't, there's a fair chance he'll have moved half the balls and left the cueball in a rotten position. It's crazy, when he shoots, you know the 9 will move, and you know it will take a tortuous route to one of the six pockets.

I'm ranked 3rd in the league. the second plays very well and also plays the national tournaments. He gets beaten often too. The first is an alien of a player who never misses a shot (and doesn't give a toss about either league or national tournaments) and he's the only one who can beat the poolhall owner all the time, save once this year, which he still rants about today.

This said, the owner never plays races over 3 games, which tells me he certainly exploits the luck factor, and I can beat him easily in 8-ball and 14.1, when I can get him to play them at all, which isn't often.
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Short races to 3 u stand a good chance of getting rolled out on,i dont realy like a race to 5 but it beats a race to 3.
 
I know someone who plays 9 ball like that, whenever they see a means that the 9 can be made to roll they will try to make it roll.

If you can get a ball rolling the odds of it dropping are infinitely higher that it will drop in a pocket opposed to it staying at rest.

"LUCK" of this type does seem to very streaky.

LWW
 
haha neil it sounds like you learned it the hard way.

I did to, I noticed it started getting to me and over the past few weeks I just couldn't figure out what was wrong me with me.

I then realize I was so concerned about winning and protecting my reputation that I had forgotten what had made me the winner I had become.

We all play to feel the feeling of deadstroke whether we realize it or not. It's not about winning ( least not for me ) although that is nice... fact is, if we all won the hard way ( ie. making 2 balls at a time, playing safe, 3-4 kick shot safes a game, no runs of more then 4 balls, barely beating the opponent on the worst off day ) this game wouldn't be very much fun.

It's nice to pull out the win like that, but the true enjoyment of the game win or lose is the simple feeling of making balls effortlessly.
 
Hogwash!

Anyone who believes a certain player possesses magical good rolls for life is a fool and sabatages their ability to perform to beat them. Period. No one bends physics and no one beats the laws of averages over the long haul.

Give me a player who bangs object balls into the 9 willy nilly and I'll show you someone who sells out FAR more than he flukes 'em in.

IGNORE the good and the bad rolls and play the next shot, else you're polluting your play. Play your opponent and the table, not mystical belief.
 
Pushout said:
Unfortunately, that isn't necessarily true. There was a guy back in NY, was almost unbeatable as long as he played in our home room. He won the NYS 9 Ball Championship two or three times. Just seemed to fall in it time after time after time. He just got the roles and continued to get them. Any where else he played he would usually lose, in tournaments two and out. He didn't often play for money out of the home room. Some people are like that, sometimes.
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Daryll?

Lyn
 
That player is working very hard at getting under your skin. He is very aware of your reaction to his "luck". IMHO, just keep playing him. When you're at the table, do the things that have made you successful in the past. Don't play one set. If you regularly play on a bar box, move him to a big table. If you only have bar boxes to play on, move to a different table. If none of those work, raise the bet. Significantly. That should cure him of trying low percentage shots. Hurts a lot more when you lose big!

We had a guy locally doing the same thing. His favorite comment was "Where's the nine ball". Like your opponent, he did make several of them. He usually lost because once his attempt at the nine failed, we got out on him. Either by running out or preventing him for shooting directly at his next ball (snooker the bastard).

Lyn
 
Was this on a tight 9 footer, or on a 7 footer with buckets....

If he did that on a tight 9 footer, and is know for that, he might just have a leprechaun shoved up his azz and you will never beat him :grin:

Now, if it was on a 7 foot bar table, I have enjoyed a few beatings in my time from crafty veterans....many of them have lost a step over the years and may not be able to see as well as they did nor pocket balls as consistently as they used to, but they know where the 9 ball is at all times and will roll that bad boy at will.....they know their limitations, but they have a creative mind and know how to roll the 9.....balls flying at high speed on a 7 footer are bound to find a pocket :grin:
 
i heard buddy hall ask the question,if you play to get lucky,and get lucky,is that luck?
 
Fastolfe said:
How does one get so lucky? I've never seen anyone play like him. It drives me bonkers: I miss a ball, I often even leave a decent safety, and *whack* the 9 goes in god-knows-how. Again and again and again... I want to know how he does that.
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OK, so how much did you lose this time? :grin:

Maybe you should work with the barmen to mix his drinks with water.
 
They're out there

:(I think every pool room has at least one of these guys. I call it the LMFOE (The Luckiest MF on Earth) club. They rely on consistent-soul crushing-odds defying-maximum multiple ball random collision 9ball.

I think Buddy Hall speaks about the 'strategic blast' as an offensive option when there is no more better choice available. These folks take that approach on every shot.

It might even be OK to hear 'where dat 9ball?' if riding the 9ball was the result of a plan and a well executed combination/ a carom/ a bank/a well played cb path. But, no. It's just rearranging the furniture every shot.

I am not bitter about this. I do know that these local club chapters have denied my membership application again and again and again.

Generally-these players are very lucky. Most of us are not.

I am stubborn, not lucky. I still believe the law of averages will prevail. Maybe just not in my life time. I can't become luckier-I can only try to improve my shot making and table management. Pool like life, isn't always fair.

Just be prepared to bite your lip(or hold your head) when the whole 4 man team is a LMFOE franchise and they win the league and collect $2000.

Just whining.

3railkick
 
I take the attitude that I will do my disciplined mental best to not pay attention to good and bad rolls. I try to ignore and forget. I do well at this.

I try not to make eye contact or listen to opponents whine or gloat or whatever. I want to approach my next shot not holding onto any emotion from the prior shot.

It's easier said than done, and I do much better on the rolls aspect. But I'm not quite so good at fading the opponent's whine. I need to toughen up on that.

It absolutely boggles my mind how many people truly believe certain players have some mystical possession of the good rolls gods. So, when in doubt, start a poll.

Ta Da! A good roll poll was born!
 
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