Some evidence of what I have long suspected about Fargorating

[easy-e]

I've argued your side in the past. Anyone that argues about anything Fargo related is arguing with one or both hands tied behind their back since we don't have access to all the data.

I thought your argument was clear and half of it has been addressed so far.

I think everyone (for the most part) agrees with his argument. The main problem is that it doesn't matter how seriously he takes the game during league since we can't know how seriously any of his opponents were taking it. It's moot. I'm in the same boat he is. So are many of us. What does it all matter?

 

[Coos Cues]

I've argued your side in the past. Anyone that argues about anything Fargo related is arguing with one or both hands tied behind their back since we don't have access to all the data.

I thought your argument was clear and half of it has been addressed so far.

You noticed that too? What we can't find is "point in time" ratings to know how good our opponents were back on the day we played them. So that's a problem right? I requested the other half I guess we will see.

 

[Coos Cues]

I think everyone (for the most part) agrees with his argument. The main problem is that it doesn't matter how seriously he takes the game during league since we can't know how seriously any of his opponents were taking it. It's moot. I'm in the same boat he is. So are many of us. What does it all matter?

Compared to cancer or nuclear war it doesn't matter one iota.

But this is an internet pool forum after all and the entire endeavor of pool is just an insignificant recreational activity. People who don't like to ponder this type of stuff are 100% free to not do so. No biggie.

Trust me my league opponents are serious as a heart attack when playing me. A little drunk maybe but none the less serious. People like defeating the archvillain of Tioga .

 

[Chili Palmer]

Compared to cancer or nuclear war it doesn't matter one iota.

But this is an internet pool forum after all and the entire endeavor of pool is just an insignificant recreational activity. People who don't like to ponder this type of stuff are 100% free to not do so. No biggie.

Trust me my league opponents are serious as a heart attack when playing me. A little drunk maybe but none the less serious. People like defeating the archvillain of Tioga .

Yeah, but it's fun being that guy

 

[Atorontopoolplayer]

You noticed that too? What we can't find is "point in time" ratings to know how good our opponents were back on the day we played them. So that's a problem right? I requested the other half I guess we will see.

I suppose the thing is how much higher could you have been playing in the tournaments when your league play is essentially the same as your total rating.

 

[Coos Cues]

I suppose the thing is how much higher could you have been playing in the tournaments when your league play is essentially the same as your total rating.

I think the sampling is small and maybe although I beat the better players handily as shown on the graph and sucked even worse against the lower players in the handicapped events than I do at league?

 

[maha]

its a rating to give a good approximating number related to your playing results.
so it can be off by a good amount depending on where you are and the conditions you are playing under.

 

[Chili Palmer]

its a rating to give a good approximating number related to your playing results.
so it can be off by a good amount depending on where you are and the conditions you are playing under.

The key to having proper nationwide accurate ratings in your area is to have players from your area go outside that area and play. Here in Boise there are a few people that go outside of the area to play but I think most of it comes about by league players going to Lincoln City and Vegas. If that doesn't happen you get pockets that may not reflect a national average.

 

[BasementDweller]

I think everyone (for the most part) agrees with his argument. The main problem is that it doesn't matter how seriously he takes the game during league since we can't know how seriously any of his opponents were taking it. It's moot. I'm in the same boat he is. So are many of us. What does it all matter?

It's just something to talk about. Fargo is the best rating system we have but the game has more variables than chess, so it's just interesting to break it down.

 

[Bob Jewett]

The key to having proper nationwide accurate ratings in your area is to have players from your area go outside that area and play. Here in Boise there are a few people that go outside of the area to play but I think most of it comes about by league players going to Lincoln City and Vegas. If that doesn't happen you get pockets that may not reflect a national average.

I think that for an "island" to be reasonably well connected, it needs a total of about 200 games with "foreigners", roughly the same as for an established rating for an individual. I think a single team going to Las Vegas might get to 100 games in one trip depending on how many events they enter.

 

[Chili Palmer]

I think that for an "island" to be reasonably well connected, it needs a total of about 200 games with "foreigners", roughly the same as for an established rating for an individual. I think a single team going to Las Vegas might get to 100 games in one trip depending on how many events they enter.

Thanks for the clarification Bob. With that said, given there are quite a few BCA players from this area that go to both I would imagine we're pretty well integrated into the nation. There are other events that smaller groups go to as well, Montana and Wyoming are a couple of examples.

 

[Bob Jewett]

Thanks for the clarification Bob. With that said, given there are quite a few BCA players from this area that go to both I would imagine we're pretty well integrated into the nation. There are other events that smaller groups go to as well, Montana and Wyoming are a couple of examples.

I think every additional connection helps, but if it's a neighboring "island" the games won't do quite as much towards the group's robustness as when you are playing "mainlanders".

If a connection is made with only 200 games, the typical error in the resulting rating is about 20 points (one sigma).

 

[fastone371]

There have been threads here where people have argued against my premise. I would have to do some digging but my old brain seems to recall one of them being Mike Page. Conversations where league play vs tournament play have been compared for the purpose of Fargorate.

And since I am known as top in the league, no matter how little I care about the result the lower rated opponents seem to give their best effort so there is that. Everyone wants to beat me in particular.

I don't know how to separate and calculate the two entities but I wouldn't be surprised if I were 25-30 points higher on the road than in league play.

Assuming that the players I have played equal or higher than myself also play a lot in league then maybe they are younger and not tired of it yet or something else because if they were experiencing the same dynamics than all should be equal when we match up yet the results say otherwise.

I like numbers and find it interesting.

League play is also vastly different than tournament play, leagues are usually 1 game against one of the competing teams players 3 or 4 times a night, anyone can be beat in a race to 1.

 

[skip100]

I think every additional connection helps, but if it's a neighboring "island" the games won't do quite as much towards the group's robustness as when you are playing "mainlanders".

If a connection is made with only 200 games, the typical error in the resulting rating is about 20 points (one sigma).

This shows how easy it is to connect different parts of the country and how overblown most concerns about islands are.

 

[DCMike]

I have long since maintained that due to tiredness, apathy and other factors that I play well below my speed in league play. Which skews my fargo downward. It seems I always go up a bit after out of town events and down a bit when the drudgery of league play returns. Of course this has been refuted aggressively.

So here is the evidence. There is no one in my league with a higher fargo rating than myself. So I am a favorite of varying degrees in every rack. If you look at the histogram below you can see that I am dominating players equal and above my rating which I only encounter when playing out of the area while the next step down not so much. These are my league players since that is the vast majority of my games in the system. This is not the expected result of the system. These are league players where the seriousness level is considerably lower. Just stopped caring about winning these games long ago. And therein lies the fargorate rub.

Case closed.

View attachment 745203

Here's more that can be deduced: Mike says you have won 225 out of 282 league games in the last 12 months. This comes out to roughly 80%. According to your screenshot, you've won 75% of ALL games in the last 12 months. (I assume the percentage given is for 12 months, because when when toggling the setting to 6 months, the win % changes.)

Therefore: your win % for non-league games (calculated over the last 12 months) must be *less* than 75% and actually must be *significantly* less than 75%, unless during this time you've played WAY more non-league games than league games (which seems highly unlikely).

According to your "win% bar" against 600+ opponents, you have won 75% of these games give or take. Your league has no other 600s so these games are included in the non-league group. So therefore your win percentage against opponents <600 *outside of league* must be what's dragging your percentage significantly down.

So while outperforming other 600+ in non-league play, you were much less dominant against a weaker group.

I imagine that the sample size for this weaker group is larger as well: for most tournaments (the ones not offering huge cash prizes), the bulk of players are <600.

 

[penguin]

I wouldn't be surprised if I were 25-30 points higher on the road than in league play.

If your Fargo is a 602 but you believe that you are 25-30 points underrated, maybe you should do a field test.

Go find some 630-rated players and gamble with them, even-up, on a regular basis.

Don't play cheap, and be sure to play enough games/sets so you have an acceptable sample size.

 

[Coos Cues]

If your Fargo is a 602 but you believe that you are 25-30 points underrated, maybe you should do a field test.

Go find some 630-rated players and gamble with them, even-up, on a regular basis.

Don't play cheap, and be sure to play enough games/sets so you have an acceptable sample size.

If I had the time or the inclination to go on the road looking for players to not play cheap I wouldn't be a 602.

But if you have some names for me send them over so I can play them regularly.

They will spend more on gas and lodging than they can win at the game since there isn't anyone like that within 200 miles.

 

[tomatoshooter]

it can be off by a good amount

I hope so. I think I got -80 last night and my opponent got 900.

 

[ShootingArts]

The real question:

What is the ratio of players who say they paid their way through college by playing pool, in a small town?

What about in a larger town?

I paid my way through college shooting pool. It was a brutal three weeks!

Hu

 

[BRKNRUN]

I

I'd play SVB if he was stoned, drunk, and only had one eye open. I'll even spot him the first break.

I don't know who this is......but I probably most likely know you......My comment was obviously an exaggeration.....but there are only a couple three guys in AZ I am going to take against Shane on his worst day.