Stats -- Orcollo vs. Van Boening 9-Ball Race to 120, October 2020

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
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Here are some results from the Dennis Orcollo vs. Shane Van Boening 9-Ball match played at Bill's Bar & Billiards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on October 23-25, 2020. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by Rackemtv. The commentators included Jeremy Jones, Joey Gray, Skyler Woodward, Chip Compton, Billy Thorpe, Marc Gonzalez, and Billy Guy.

This match was a race to 120 game wins played over 3 days. Orcollo won this hill/hill match. The scores each day (Orcollo's score first) were:
Day 1 -- 40 - 37​
Day 2 -- 26 - 43 (2-day total 66 - 80)​
Day 3 -- 54 - 39​
Total -- 120 - 119​

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and new fast, blue cloth (I didn't hear the brand);​
- Predator Arcos II balls;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- rack your own, with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;​
- winner breaks from the box -- one diamond to each side of the long string;​
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 object balls cross (or touch?) the head string or are pocketed;​
- all slop counts, except spot any 9-ball made on the break;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- no shot clock; and​
- lag for opening break on Day 1 (won by Orcollo).​

NOTE: The stream was down for all of Game 16. I do know that Orcollo broke and won that game, but I know no details. So most of the stats are for 238 games instead of 239.

■ Orcollo broke 119 times -- successful 104 times (resulting in 78 game wins and 26 losses), 3 wet but illegal (all losses), 9 fouls (all losses), and 3 dry (all losses).

■ Van Boening broke 119 times -- successful 101 times (resulting in 75 game wins and 26 losses), 7 wet but illegal (3 wins, 4 losses), 8 fouls (all losses), and 3 dry (all losses).

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Orcollo -- 104 of 119 (87%)​
Van Boening -- 101 of 119 (85%)​
Total -- 205 of 238 (86%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (illegal, fouled, or dry):
Orcollo -- 15 of 119 (13%)​
Van Boening -- 18 of 119 (15%)​
Total -- 33 of 238 (14%)​

Breaker won game:
[Note: this stat includes the game I did not see.]
Orcollo -- 79 of 120 (66%)​
Van Boening -- 75 of 119 (63%)​
Total -- 154 of 239 (64%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Orcollo -- 55 of 119 (46%)​
Van Boening -- 54 of 119 (45%)​
Total -- 109 of 238 (46%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Orcollo -- 55 of 104 (53%)​
Van Boening -- 54 of 101 (53%)​
Total -- 109 of 205 (53%)​
Illegal breaks:
Orcollo -- 5 of 119 (4%)​
Van Boening -- 8 of 119 (7%)​
Total -- 13 of 238 (5%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Orcollo -- 20 fouls, including 9 on the break, in 184 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 9.2 games at the table)​
Van Boening -- 25 fouls, including 8 on the break, in 183 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 7.3 games at the table)​
Total -- 45 fouls in 238 games (1 per 5.3 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Orcollo -- 44 misses in 184 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.2 games at the table)​
Van Boening -- 45 misses in 183 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.1 games at the table)​
Total -- 89 misses in 238 games (1 per 2.7 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Orcollo after his own successful break -- 55 of 104 (53%)​
By Orcollo after Van Boening's failed break -- 10 of 18 (56%)​
By Orcollo, total -- 65 of 122 (53%)​
By Van Boening after his own successful break -- 54 of 101 (53%)​
By Van Boening after Orcollo's failed break -- 12 of 15 (80%)​
By Van Boening, total -- 66 of 116 (57%)​
Total for Orcollo and Van Boening -- 131 of 238 (55%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Orcollo's break:
By Orcollo -- 55 of 104 (53%)​
By Van Boening -- 12 of 15 (80%)​
Total -- 67 of 119 (56%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Van Boening's break:
By Van Boening -- 54 of 101 (53%)​
By Orcollo -- 10 of 18 (56%)​
Total -- 64 of 119 (54%)​

Break-and-run packages
Van Boening's 54 B&R games consisted of 2 5-packs, 2 4-packs, 2 3-packs, 5 2-packs, and 20 singles​
Orcollo's 55 B&R games consisted of 2 5-packs, 2 4-packs, 2 3-packs, 6 2-packs, and 19 singles​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Van Boening only -- 23​
by Orcollo only -- 20​
by both -- 18​
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 26% (61 of 238)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Orcollo -- 1.7 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks​
Van Boening -- 1.8 on all breaks, 1.9 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.7 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 64% (153 of 238) of the games ended in one inning. 109 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 44 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 31 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 26 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 12% (28 of 238) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the breaker's 6th visit.

9-balls on the break -- 5 (2.1% of the 238 breaks); they were spotted.

Match length -- Approximately 19 ¾ hours, for an average of 5.0 minutes per game. This includes racking and short timeouts, but excludes about 63 minutes for 3 intermissions (1 each day).
 
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justnum

TesticularCancer Survivor
Silver Member
What do you mean? It is not posted elsewhere.

taking time to collect stats and sharing them

its a huge undertaking most people dont know about.

three days of counting is not easy.

for other people it can be like reading the chess moves on a sheet list.

its like advanced reading.
 

sjm

Sweating it at Derby City
Silver Member
Nice work, At Large. Thanks for sharing. These stats confirm just how close a match this was. Dennis and Shane had about the same number of break and runs, not what one would have expected going in.
 
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alstl

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Was Shane betting his own or did he have backers and how much was in the middle?
 

gxman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Thanks for taking the time to do the stats!

Match looks very even in all aspects.
 

Black-Balled

He Rides the Skies
Silver Member
To me, the below is what separates the pros from the scrubs. Amazing:

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Orcollo -- a rate of 1 foul for every 9.2 games at the table)
Van Boening -- 1 foul for every 7.3 games at the table)
 

TATE

AzB Gold Mensch
Gold Member
Silver Member
Hard to believe the level of play - in the stratosphere. Nearly 50% break and runs. One missed ball every 4 games. multiple 5 packs.

Any way to figure out what their Accu-Stat rating would be?
 

sjm

Sweating it at Derby City
Silver Member
Hard to believe the level of play - in the stratosphere. Nearly 50% break and runs. One missed ball every 4 games. multiple 5 packs.

Any way to figure out what their Accu-Stat rating would be?

Most of me says that it's too big an undertaking, but 89 misses and 45 fouls means 134 errors on offense. How many defensive errors and kicking errors were made is hard, maybe even impossible, to gauge, but let's take a wild guess and say it was 50. In 239 racks where nine of the break spots, the number of balls pocketed is 2,151, which must be reduced by the number of balls not pocketed due to short racks in which the nine was made by combo or carom. Let's guess that this reduces the number of balls successfully pocketed to 2,000.

Hence, a reasonable guess at what the combined Accustat might be:

Successful shots / Total Shots = 2,000 / (2000+89+45+50) = .916

Obviously, there's some major speculation here, but this very rough and inexact calculation evidences your assessment that the level was very high. If they combined for a .916, that is one high standard!

Yup, that's my official guess.
 
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spartan

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Here are some results from the Dennis Orcollo vs. Shane Van Boening 9-Ball match played at Bill's Bar & Billiards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on October 23-25, 2020. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by Rackemtv. The commentators included Jeremy Jones, Joey Gray, Skyler Woodward, Chip Compton, Billy Thorpe, Marc Gonzalez, and Billy Guy.

This match was a race to 120 game wins played over 3 days. Orcollo won this hill/hill match. The scores each day (Orcollo's score first) were:
Thanks AtLarge.
SVB B&R was 44% for 10B when he played Orcollo last year. Other 10b long races last year were about 47% to 48% B&R
Against Orcollo, now SVB B&R% for 9b is only 45% when B&R% for 9b should be higher than 10b.
Does that mean SVB is breaking below his best on Day 1 and Day3? Do you have B&R and Break Win stats for Day 1,2,3 ?
How many % higher is B&R for 9b compared 10b for the top players?
Thanks
:smile:

svb orcollo.JPG



Was Shane betting his own or did he have backers and how much was in the middle?

Numbers bandied around was $150K bets in middle. And both players were rumored to be playing for $20K in middle
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
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Silver Member
... Any way to figure out what their Accu-Stat rating would be?

Most of me says that it's too big an undertaking, but 89 misses and 45 fouls means 134 errors on offense. How many defensive errors and kicking errors were made is hard, maybe even impossible, to gauge, but let's take a wild guess and say it was 50. In 239 racks where nine of the break spots, the number of balls pocketed is 2,151, which must be reduced by the number of balls not pocketed due to short racks in which the nine was made by combo or carom. Let's guess that this reduces the number of balls successfully pocketed to 2,000.

Hence, a reasonable guess at what the combined Accustat might be:

Successful shots / Total Shots = 2,000 / (2000+89+45+50) = .916

Obviously, there's some major speculation here, but this very rough and inexact calculation evidences your assessment that the level was very high. If they combined for a .916, that is one high standard!

Yup, that's my official guess.

TATE -- I generally leave the TPA calculations to the Accu-Stats folks, as it is their baby. There is also a bit of subjectivity to it, so different people could come up with slightly different numbers. Occasionally a match is so clear cut that it is pretty easy to calculate the TPA, but a 239-game match isn't one of those.

sjm -- Good work on the estimate. A few comments:
- For balls pocketed (numerator) you took the 2151 (9x139) and deducted about 150. I think that deduction is high. There were very few games with early combos/caroms or slopped-in 9-balls. But one deduction you did not mention is balls made on fouls -- they do not count as balls pocketed. I quickly see about 31 such balls (mostly on the break, of course). My rough figure for the numerator is 2,103. Interestingly (to me) is whether Pat Fleming would count the 9-ball twice in a game if it is made on the break and later for the win. I think logical arguments are possible on both sides of that. If it is counted twice, that would take the numerator to 2,108 (which is, essentially, of no consequence for our estimate).
- For miss errors, Pat counts a miss that is easier than a spot shot as two errors. So the 89 misses would produce more errors than that. My notes do not identify the difficulty of many of the misses. Let's say they produced 110 errors.
- I don't want to take a lot of time to try to get a better number on the kick, safety, and position errors. Let's go with the 50 you estimated.
- So total errors would then be about 205.
- The roughly estimated TPA would then be 2,103 / (2,103+205) = .911. And if we vary the estimate of kick, safety, and position errors by 25 in each direction, the range becomes .901 to .921.

So your .916 is right in there!
 

PoolBum

Ace in the side.
Silver Member
Excellent work as usual, AtLarge.

I spent the last day or so poring over the stats: successful breaks, break-and-runs, fouls, missed shots, poor safeties.

After extensive analysis and taking into account all of the numbers, the answer as to why Dennis won after three days of pool was staring me right in the face: he didn't scratch on the 8 ball in the last rack.
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Just curious how newly installed the cloth was, if anyone knows. With the first round starting on Friday evening, I wonder if the cloth was installed as of Wednesday, Thursday or sometime Friday? As many on here may know, the way newly installed Simonis plays differs every day for the 3-4 days. A standard Diamond table with 4 1/2 inch corners which it was reported they were playing on, actually plays more like 5 inch corners for the first few days after it’s installed. I’m just saying, not taking anything away from the way these world class players play, this is one possible reason for the extremely high break and run percentages in this match.
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Excellent work as usual, AtLarge.

I spent the last day or so poring over the stats: successful breaks, break-and-runs, fouls, missed shots, poor safeties.

After extensive analysis and taking into account all of the numbers, the answer as to why Dennis won after three days of pool was staring me right in the face: he didn't scratch on the 8 ball in the last rack.
I differ with your opinion as to that near scratch on the 8-ball in the final game. Yes, I realize he may have avoided scratching by no more than a quarter inch, but my guess is when he set up to play the 8-ball, he felt assured the draw was taking the cue ball at least a few inches below the side pocket. The only reason the cue ball came as close to the side pocket as he did is because he likely inadvertently pocketed the 8-ball in the left side of the corner pocket instead of in the center of the corner pocket. So he basically missed it about as bad as he could’ve possibly missed it, but still didn’t scratch.
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
... Do you have B&R and Break Win stats for Day 1,2,3 ?

Breaker won game:

Orcollo
Day 1 -- 24 of 40 (60%)​
Day 2 -- 16 of 27 (59%)​
Day 3 -- 39 of 53 (74%)​
Total -- 79 of 120 (66%)​
Van Boening
Day 1 -- 20 of 37 (54%)​
Day 2 -- 31 of 42 (74%)​
Day 3 -- 24 of 40 (60%)​
Total -- 75 of 119 (63%)​
Both Players
Day 1 -- 44 of 77 (57%)​
Day 2 -- 47 of 69 (68%)​
Day 3 -- 63 of 93 (68%)​
Total -- 154 of 239 (64%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:

Orcollo
Day 1 -- 14 of 39 (36%)​
Day 2 -- 10 of 27 (37%)​
Day 3 -- 31 of 53 (58%)​
Total -- 55 of 119 (46%)​
Van Boening
Day 1 -- 13 of 37 (35%)​
Day 2 -- 25 of 42 (60%)​
Day 3 -- 16 of 40 (40%)​
Total -- 54 of 119 (45%)​
Both Players
Day 1 -- 27 of 76 (36%)​
Day 2 -- 35 of 69 (51%)​
Day 3 -- 47 of 93 (51%)​
Total -- 109 of 238 (46%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):

Orcollo
Day 1 -- 14 of 31 (45%)​
Day 2 -- 10 of 24 (42%)​
Day 3 -- 31 of 49 (63%)​
Total -- 55 of 104 (53%)​
Van Boening
Day 1 -- 13 of 32 (41%)​
Day 2 -- 25 of 35 (71%)​
Day 3 -- 16 of 34 (47%)​
Total -- 54 of 101 (53%)​
Both Players
Day 1 -- 27 of 63 (43%)​
Day 2 -- 35 of 59 (59%)​
Day 3 -- 47 of 83 (57%)​
Total -- 109 of 205 (53%)​

How many % higher is B&R for 9b compared 10b for the top players? ...

Dr. Dave has tabulated a lot of my break stats. The results vary a lot depending on the conditions (rules and equipment). https://billiards.colostate.edu/faq/break/stats/
 
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AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Excellent work as usual, AtLarge.

I spent the last day or so poring over the stats: successful breaks, break-and-runs, fouls, missed shots, poor safeties.

After extensive analysis and taking into account all of the numbers, the answer as to why Dennis won after three days of pool was staring me right in the face: he didn't scratch on the 8 ball in the last rack.

Yeah, PB, it's amazing how many individual shots we could point to and say that's the one that determined winning or losing. Of course, it was a passel of great shots, blunders, good and bad rolls, etc. that all added up to the final score.

As for those last 2 balls, weren't you a bit surprised how quickly Dennis shot the 9-ball after the near scratch on the 8?
 
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