Not only is it not falling apart, but I predict that other game/s or sport/s will start using it at some point as well (with obvious tweaking to fit their particular application), potentially even pretty major one/s. You heard it here first.
Updated FargoRates are out
- Thread starter Rhea
- Start date
Not only is it not falling apart, but I predict that other game/s or sport/s will start using it at some point as well (with obvious tweaking to fit their particular application), potentially even pretty major one/s. You heard it here first.
I'm rated 752. Siming Chen is rated 778. Fargo says she would be a 80% favorite if we played a race to 50 even.
Here is the deal. I know this guy who won the lottery. He doesnt care what she is rated. He will stake me to play her even a race to 50 for 10k or 20k. Anybody want his free money???
Here is the deal. I know this guy who won the lottery. He doesnt care what she is rated. He will stake me to play her even a race to 50 for 10k or 20k. Anybody want his free money???
the only way you have a prayer is if you play rack your own and she gives you the pop
I'm sure you'll be hearing from Rhea soon...
Magic rack 10ball. I agree. I told my lottery winner stakehorse I have no chance of winning in a long race considering my Fargo is 26 points lower than hers. But he said I don't care play her!
Who wants this money? Mike from Fargo do you want it?
Who wants this money? Mike from Fargo do you want it?
Here is another offer.
Amar Kang 766 and I am 753. It says if we play a race to 50 even I have a 32% chance of winning. I'll make it even sweeter. I'll give him the last 2 and play a race to 50 for whatever you wanna bet.
Amar Kang 766 and I am 753. It says if we play a race to 50 even I have a 32% chance of winning. I'll make it even sweeter. I'll give him the last 2 and play a race to 50 for whatever you wanna bet.
This is epic.
If no one takes this bet this proves Fargo is a little out of touch with reality. The reality being that no one wants to put their cash on the line when Fargo is the rating system.
Thanks for stepping up Donny.
JC
Coos Cues
Donny you have hit the nail on the head as to why you shouldn't trust Fargorate with your rent money.
In a gambling match with no brackets, no eliminations, no sitting around waiting to play things can go much different than Fargorate predicts with a given two players.
I play and gamble cheap with a local player here frequently. We both have plenty of robustness and are rated just about the same by Fargorate. In fact I'm 5 points lower. The thing is the actual results of our frequent matches head to head would place me about 60 points higher.
No matter what rating system we try to use, it's always solved on the table.
I wouldn't hold your breath for the action.
JC
This post is out of touch with reality. I’m not defending Fargo or weighing in on the challenge. Just your post. To claim that no one taking this proves anything is ridiculous.
Even if someone took the bet, they would have to play quite a few sets to prove it. According to Fargo, he has a 20% chance. Again, not weighing in on my opinion if it’s accurate.
Let’s assume it is correct......how many people are going to put up 100-200k in 10-20k sets to prove it? If he won a single set to 50, that wouldn’t prove anything about the rating at all. Just the same, if she won a single set, nothing has been proven.
Last edited:
Not to mention, I didn’t see a challenge to anyone with certain Fargo rate. It was specifically to a single player. Which I appreciate as someone is trying to get a game.
But for you to interject and use that as a claim to Fargo not being accurate is asinine.
Had the challenge been for anyone within a certain Fargo rate(and enough sets to prove it), that would be a challenge to the system itself.
No, not ridiculous at all. In fact I think it puts what many of us are saying right in your face. Also, maybe you don't get out much but there's plenty of people looking to gamble, high at that. Everyone would like to get an edge, everyone that gambles WOULD LOVE to get a bet down on an 80% favorite. Thinking otherwise is, well, ........ Donny really is stepping up and I agree, if Mike is so confident his system is not flawed he would be all over this action - same with anyone else preaching Fargo !
+1^^^^^ I've been asking an important question that has yet to be answered. I honestly don't know what the outcome would be, but it sure would be nice to know. For one, I asked about Fargo's correctness win % was with the US Open. ( out of all, of the matches played how many times did the person Fargo predict to win actually win ). I'll even take it a step further since Fargo is supposedly the new standard by which all are expected to follow - I'd like to see all the majors %'s at least. Along with this I would expect documentation that can be fact checked. ( individual ,at he's with scores that were used to provide the correctness % )
Now BEFORE some smart ass tells me to go and do it myself ( as someone did last time I brought this up ) well...... NO. A ND HELL NO, for several reasons. 1) it's not my product that I'm pumping and pushing. It is the owner / inventors responsibility that is trying to " sell " us a new product's responsibility - same as any other Ole product that makes a claim.
2) Truth be told, I just don't care that much about it either way to put forth any kind of effort - As Fargo impacts me very very little. So little it is in fact O%. My ONLY interest in Fargo is if it can help set the lines ( and how it is doing it ) and / or if it could help ensure in ,a king a selection. At this point, I honestly believe that ( me, myself, and I )can do a better job picking a winner on any given particular match that I may be interested in betting.
3) This is the best reason of them all imo. Mike ALREADY HAS ALL of this information as he is the one ( or Fargo staff if they're any ) who cataloged it and it must be only a few clicks or button pushes away! ( Very surprising he hasn't already published it because wouldn't it be an awesome '" selling " point touting how accurate his new system is???? Unless . .......
)
JC
Coos Cues
Of course it doesn't mean always. But you are mistaken, it is designed to be predictive. Just look at some of Mike Pages posts showing how accurate it has been in predicting in the long run as a defense of it.
All handicaps are predicated on trying to predict the outcome. Which is what this system is also predicated on.
If you believe this false then please explain what it is if not a prediction system? 700 is always bigger than 650 so if those numbers are not trying to predict an outcome what are they for?
JC
We would be very interested to see a long race between you and Siming Chen.
As far as us betting on the outcome, please understand that because we control the data input and the integrity of the data generally, we as a matter of policy don't bet on pool matches.
And to a few of the others who see some potential match as being some sort of test of Fargo Ratings, that's just silly. There are already millions of games of "tests" of the FargoRate system. The idea that one or two races to 50 or something somehow provide some sort of test is ridiculous.
I definitely agree that one or two races to 50 don't change a thing.
But the one thing that I do think is that a longer gambling match is different enough from a typical tournament match, that there could indeed be players that play much better than their average when they are "warmed up" and in stroke during a gambling match. If the Fargo Ratings are almost exclusively based on tournament matches, then I would suggest that there could be quite a few "upsets" in gambling matches based on their ratings.
This is the one reason why I think that some players could still be "sleepers" when gambling, as the gambling format may allow them to play quite a bit better than their rating would suggest.
[...]
3) This is the best reason of them all imo. Mike ALREADY HAS ALL of this information as he is the one ( or Fargo staff if they're any ) who cataloged it and it must be only a few clicks or button pushes away! ( Very surprising he hasn't already published it because wouldn't it be an awesome '" selling " point touting how accurate his new system is???? Unless . .......
Yes, I have the information. But I am not sure what you are looking for. Let's say Fargo Ratings are perfect, absolutely perfect. What do you think we should be looking for by looking at the Us Open matches? What would be a good signature? a mediocre signature? a bad signature?
For example, if Fargo Ratings are perfect, what is the percentage of time the higher-rated person should win a race to 11 with the US Open crowd?
BMoreMoney - Mike has done what you ask in the past. Here’s an example: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=443956