Um, never in the lower division. The winners games will go into the books and help establish them at a higher rating and a new bunch of unrated folks will win next year. Unfortunately folks with well established low ratings are never going to win unless you totally exclude non-established players.
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This has not been our experience. And it is something we are monitoring. In fact we will do an analysis.
There are many, many players with no games in the system or few games in the system who have done nothing wrong and in fact may have been loyal BCAPL players playing league every year for 10 years. When such a player enters, CSI will assign or review a starter rating based on whatever information is available--league stats, league operator, google, whatever. The players don't just enter at whatever starter-rating happened to be in the system.
When all is said and done, let's say a division has one third established players, one third players with NO games (play by starter rating), and one third players with some but fewer that 200 games in the system. Success would be the pool of players who cash fit that same ratio. And if the players in the money across the board deviate from that ratio, we want it to be in the direction that unestablished players are less likely rather than more likely to finish in the money.
This is the kind of analysis we did for the Western BCA event a few months ago. It worked out fine there. If anything the starter-ratings had been set a little too high on average because those players cashed at a notably lower rate than expected.
I suppose if you analyze by cashing you might get balance and honestly I don't have a better idea how to make it seem right. Unfortunately the prizes are quite top heavy in BCAPL events and I was only looking at the winners in my observation. First couple places rakes in as much as a whole grip of lower finishers.
My question really was when will it stop looking like this if ever and the cycle AFpool guy described be broken. When LMS is required to be used in order to have a league? Don't know if that is the ultimate answer but I can't help but wonder if there will always be the "Guy" who somehow is the best player that day with 6 robustness. After all someone has to win right?:wink:
JC
Yes, we can do the analysis both as who finished in the $$ and also to which group did the $$ go.
LMS is just being rolled out now to most leagues. Our objective is to get all leagues big and small everywhere onto LMS. Even largely without LMS data, though, our database has been growing fast. For the past year, we have collected about 350 games per hour 24 hours a day for 365 days--3 million new games in one year.
I think that cycle isn't actually a thing. But I will wait until I've done the analysis to comment.
No way , that can't be lol ,,I noticed in the lower men's mixed divisions at Vegas that the winners all had one thing in common.
Not a single one of them had an established fargo rating.
JC
I noticed in the lower men's mixed divisions at Vegas that the winners all had one thing in common.
Not a single one of them had an established fargo rating.
JC
Seems strange that the team that just won first in Vegas finished 6th in a 9 team league. Every player on that team was underrated, but what can you do?
Seems strange that the team that just won first in Vegas finished 6th in a 9 team league. Every player on that team was underrated, but what can you do?
There are a variety of reasons why a decent player would not have a Fargo rating. I don't have one and I have no interest in winning whatever tournament is being discussed.
Here is the guy that won the Bronze Division, the lowest one. He has an actual performance rating of 460 and also a starter guess of 460. He played US Bar Table one year and played three years in the BCAPL Open Division. Of those four tournaments he only won one match --lost 8, won 1. And in 6 of his 8 match losses he didn't get past 2 games (to 5). He also has some league games in the system.
He likely has been playing league continuously. He won the Bronze. Good for him. It is probably a really big deal in his life. This is the way it is supposed to work.
As mentioned before the cycle will continue. The DCC isn't even entered into fargorate
and it's one of the biggest tournaments in the country so how is the small ones going to
be entered