Where do you draw the line.

8pack

8pack

They call me 2 county !
Silver Member
Lets say your a b ,a or even pro player.Your opponent plays just as good as you .The score is even.
Your faced with a shot that if you make it your chances are good to get out and if you miss your probably
done.Where do you draw the line when you chose to play safe or go for the shot.
If you feel like you can make it 99 percent of the time 95 ,90?
 
randyg said:
If the shot is as hard as the saftey then shoot the shot....SPF=randyg
Click to expand...

The safe is easier but you really don't want to give this guy another shot
at the table.
What is your comfort zone in shot making that tells you i better play safe?
When you can pocket the ball maybe 5 out of 10,8 out of 10 , what?
 
Last edited:
8pack said:
Lets say your a b ,a or even pro player.Your opponent plays just as good as you .The score is even.
Your faced with a shot that if you make it your chances are good to get out and if you miss your probably
done.Where do you draw the line when you chose to play safe or go for the shot.
If you feel like you can make it 99 percent of the time 95 ,90?
Click to expand...
Suppose the safety available is easy to play but ends up with a 50-50 proposition as to who wins the safe battle. If the shot is 51% to make and 49% to sell out, then you should take the shot.

A similar situation happens often at straight pool. You're on a good run and get a bad roll on a break shot and have a 60% shot or a mediocre safe. Your opponent is as good at safeties as you are. You should take the 60% shot.

Them's the odds, but lots of people don't pay any attention to them; you can see some of them in casinos.
 
only the person over the table knows

8pack said:
Lets say your a b ,a or even pro player.Your opponent plays just as good as you .The score is even.
Your faced with a shot that if you make it your chances are good to get out and if you miss your probably
done.Where do you draw the line when you chose to play safe or go for the shot.
If you feel like you can make it 99 percent of the time 95 ,90?
Click to expand...


Only the guy or gal over the table knows when to play a safety and when to play the shot. Suppose I have an 80% shot to make a ball. Common sense says make the ball and keep control of the table, right? However I also have a very easy safety that will lock the cue ball up so tightly that there is less than a one in ten chance of the other player hitting the object ball.

Let's look at odds again. A one in five chance I will miss if I go for pocketing the ball. A nine in ten chance I will get ball in hand if I go for the safety. Very very long odds of the other player making a clean hit and pocketing a ball. Being generous let's call it one in five if he makes a legal hit.

When you carry things through to a conclusion do you really want to take that one in five chance on missing? That is why it is often an advantage to play a safety when you can easily pocket a ball. You may be able to pocket a few more balls before you will be forced to play a safety with no real chance to break up a problem but by playing a great safety earlier you are prevented from risking a weaker safety later and with ball in hand you have a far better chance of breaking up clusters or approaching the cluster from a direction that works.

Thinking three balls ahead is good but looking at an entire pattern is better. When you look at an entire pattern you will play what seems to be some odd shots to someone only looking two or three balls ahead.

There are enough value calculations in playing a safety early in a game to melt down a computer. Only the person over the table knows exactly what the best play is for them. Monster safeties are great from a technical standpoint and playing a few unexpectedly makes the other player cautious knowing that you may decide to lock them up at any time. If there is a gathering of balls or actual cluster on the table the opponent is always sweating that you will use it to lock him against the stack large or small in the most awkward possible position.

Hu
 
8pack said:
The safe is easier but you really don't want to give this guy another shot
at the table.
What is your comfort zone in shot making that tells you i better play safe?
When you can pocket the ball maybe 5 out of 10,8 out of 10 , what?
Click to expand...

Your first instinct is probably the one you should go with. Either way playing to win is not the same as playing not to lose.
 
8pack said:
The safe is easier but you really don't want to give this guy another shot
at the table.
What is your comfort zone in shot making that tells you i better play safe?
When you can pocket the ball maybe 5 out of 10,8 out of 10 , what?
Click to expand...

Depends, will you have good position to continue the run? Is the run difficult or easy? It also depends on table conditions, player and the game you are playing. If I had a 60 percent chance of making the shot in one pocket, I'd pass if it sold out the table, not worth the risk. I'd like my odds to be upward of 80%. Just some things to consider.

Rod
 
Wow so many variables, but what Hu said KEEPing CONTROL of the table is the bottom line. Know what your capable of performing THAT GAME without losing control of the iniatiave and the win.

As for as odds go, for me, throw them out the window. Your at the table right? Do you want to win? Of course! So why ever play a shot you may miss. Play what you know you can HONESTLY make, safety or pot the with position.

If you can’t make either with honest certainty then we get into HEART. If you can’t make a decision you have lost your way in this game. You have stopped being honest with yourself and your performance capabilities.

What you say, it’s 50/50, BS I say. You know which is better for you, at that moment, at the table, at that time, and at your capability that night. You may not like what your head is telling you is all.

And geez remember were not robots. Learn from your success as well as from your mistakes.http://forums.azbilliards.com/images/smilies/smile.gif
 
I like Bob's answer. I never want to let my opponent come back to the table if I can avoid it. Even a good safety can ultimately cost you the game. When a good player kicks and hits the ball, there is nearly a 50-50 chance they will not leave you an easy shot. My criteria has always been, if I feel like I can make the shot, I'm going for it. I'd rather shoot than play safe in a do or die situation. I want the first chance to win the game!
 
jay helfert said:
I like Bob's answer. I never want to let my opponent come back to the table if I can avoid it. Even a good safety can ultimately cost you the game. When a good player kicks and hits the ball, there is nearly a 50-50 chance they will not leave you an easy shot. My criteria has always been, if I feel like I can make the shot, I'm going for it. I'd rather shoot than play safe in a do or die situation. I want the first chance to win the game!
Click to expand...

I agree. I would rather take the shot and lose knowing that I tried, then playing a safety I could get screwed by.
 
Thanks for all the good input.
I have seen players duck on some shots and it cost them.
But then again i seen more safes win games.
I have been battling the shot verse the safety When the game is on the line.I feel i am a aggressive type of
player and maybe its causing me to make the wrong decision.(On tough shots)
 
8pack said:
The safe is easier but you really don't want to give this guy another shot
at the table.
What is your comfort zone in shot making that tells you i better play safe?
When you can pocket the ball maybe 5 out of 10,8 out of 10 , what?
Click to expand...

if the safety is easier i'm playing the safety.

if i'm 80% to make the shot i figure i'll go for it
 
Just be good enough to make it. That's my plan.

But to answer honestly, instinct it usually right.
 
Shot or Safety?

What Hu and Jay said make sense, but Jay you said, if I feel like I can make the shot, I will take it. LOL, of course you would if you feel like you can make it, but what about when the percentage is much lower?

Sometimes, it depends of who you opponent is? How well they kick or jump. If a lockup safety will rattle them.

You have to view the bigger picture. The object of the game is to win the game, right? Keeping that in mind, and showing patience is your best ally.
Then it becomes all mathematics with a few psychological factors thrown in.

Giving your best estimates for the shot or safety, depending on your own skill level, say you have a 60% shot and a 80% safety. When considering the shot, you have to consider position after the shot, and your chances to run out the table, or if you will need to play a safety or breakout later on.

I would probably elect for the safety in this case, especially if I missed the safety, it would still leave them a long very difficult shot. To win the game, you want to keep the advantage or odds in your favor after each shot, whether you go for the shot or safety.

As I said before, a lot depends on who you opponent is. There are some guys you don't want to ever give a shot because they are THAT good at everything, but for the most part, a good safety and getting ball in hand will win the game for you.

Lesser players beat better players with defense, because the better players are aleady better at offense. They say that Offense wins games, but Defense wins Championships, and there is some truth in that.
 
Shot or Safety?

What Hu and Jay said make sense, but Jay you said, if I feel like I can make the shot, I will take it. LOL, of course you would if you feel like you can make it, but what about when the percentage is much lower?

Sometimes, it depends of who you opponent is? How well they kick or jump. If a lockup safety will rattle them.

You have to view the bigger picture. The object of the game is to win the game, right? Keeping that in mind, and showing patience is your best ally.
Then it becomes all mathematics with a few psychological factors thrown in.

Giving your best estimates for the shot or safety, depending on your own skill level, say you have a 60% shot and a 80% safety. When considering the shot, you have to consider position after the shot, and your chances to run out the table, or if you will need to play a safety or breakout later on.

I would probably elect for the safety in this case, especially if I missed the safety, it would still leave them a long very difficult shot. To win the game, you want to keep the advantage or odds in your favor after each shot, whether you go for the shot or safety.

As I said before, a lot depends on who you opponent is. There are some guys you don't want to ever give a shot because they are THAT good at everything, but for the most part, a good safety and getting ball in hand will win the game for you.

Lesser players beat better players with defense, because the better players are aleady better at offense. They say that Offense wins games, but Defense wins Championships, and there is some truth in that.
 
You need to do what feels best for you at that time. If you feel that you can execute the shot better than the safe or vice versa that is what you should execute. It is not always an easy decision. If your successful at the safe or the shot you wont have any bad feelings but we all know that when we fail we ponder the other decision. Heck even when you make the shot or safe someone after is going to tell you how they would have went about it differently anyway.
 
I go with my gut. If I think that the player I'm playing against won't be able to run out regardless, then I might risk the hard shot so I can get out. If I'm playing a really strong player, I might try to play a two way shot, and if I'm playing a player that I think is a lot better than me... chances are I will continually play defense and frustrate the shit out of him until he makes a mistake.

I love doing that! Nothing like seeing someone fall apart at the seams on the table.
 
Neil said:
I have never looked at a shot, and tried to figure the odds on making it. I feel that figuring out the odds limits your potential to make the shot. That thought of being on the wrong end of the odds can be a killer to your mindset, and the results of the shot.

I always approach a shot with either I can make it, or I can't make it. If it's got a pocket, I can make it. If I shoot it and miss, well, I guess I know what shot to practice!

With the shots I have put up on here, I don't think I need to tell anyone that I prefer to take the shot over playing safe. :grin: That doesn't mean I won't play safe. At times, the safe is the right shot. Sometimes, making a shot won't net you anything, where the safe will.

I also strongly agree with those that said it depends on you at the time. On how you are feeling, what your mental state is, how well your stroke is working that night, ect.
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Good answer from Neil as usual. It's not hard to tell who the players are on AZ. If you're going to play pool, you better play with confidence or forget about it. Like I said before, if I look at the shot and feel comfortable shooting it (maybe thinking about the leave also), then I'm firing away. A safety that only makes my opponent kick one rail to hit the ball doesn't have a lot of appeal for me. Even an easy two rail kick can cost me the game. Now if I'm sure I can lock the cue ball up tight, then that's another story. I will put my opponent in jail if I can. :rolleyes:
 
There is a saying in war that no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.

Having said that, a general rule for me is if I have a shot I can make with a chance to run out I try to pocket the ball. The reason being if you play safe and give the table back to your opponent you might not get out of your seat or if you do you might be kicking at a ball having already passed up on a shot.

You are passing up a shot for the unknown. I'll take the shot if it is a shot I can make. Rarely are the shot and the safe equal difficulty so it is impossible to apply a percentage to when you will do this or that.
 
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