Statistics after 350 Innings of 14.1, and 1846 balls pocketed

[iusedtoberich]

For the past month I've been playing nothing but straight pool every day, in an attempt to reach my goal run of 50. This is a very lofty goal, as I'm a high C/low B 9 ball player. I haven't played straight pool on a regular basis since I first learned to play, about 20 years ago.

I've been keeping a detailed spreadsheet of every run attempt. I've also been video recording every attempt. Each run starts from one of the standard break shots that come up in an actual game (not the one where the OB is hanging in the side pocket). Today, I got to 350 run attempts (innings) and decided to calculate my actual chance of reaching my goal of 50. I must say, I'm a bit sad at the number



The first picture is a summary of what my probabilites are for each run goal, and also how often they actually occurred in my attempts. I think my actual results follow the predictions fairly well. Of note, missing the first ball (run of 0) happened more often than predicted. This is to be expected imo, because the break shot is harder than most other shots. However, I expected to see the same trend on a run of 15 (second break shot), but did not.



The second picture is the math behind the spreadsheet. Thanks to Bob Jewett's two articles which I used for reference:
Jewett Article 1
Jewett Article 2

 

[Dan White]

That's very interesting. Bob's math makes reality seem so cruel, doesn't it?

I guess I'm in the minority on this, but as much as I tend to be an engineering type analytical guy, I say put the pencil down and forget about your innings and run totals. You've done enough of that to know where you stand.

I'm sure you don't even need to review your videos to know what it is that prevents you from running 50 balls. I say direct your attention toward solving those problems. It can often be tricky to figure out how to solve mistakes you are making, and you need to give full attention to what you are doing. I just think all the record keeping is a distraction that can't be good for your conscious and unconscious mind while you are running balls and trying to correct errors in your game.

Also, how about a goal of running at least, say, 15 balls every day. If you can do that, I think it is a better indication of progress than hitting an arbitrary high run. Anybody can get lucky rolls and hit a super high number they have no business running. It's the day-in, day-out high runs that are more meaningful, IMO.

Still an interesting post, though.

 

[michael4]

suprised to see so many 1 ball runs.

Guessing your break shot(s) is the number one area for improvement.

 

[Bob Jewett]

It looks like the "Predicted Probability" column is something like "chance of running X or more" in which case the entry for 0 should be 1.0.

When I'm practicing 14.1 my routine is similar but I only notice my total for 10 innings (which makes finding the average easy), and my high run in the 10 innings. If I'm playing badly, the 10 innings ends quickly and I get to play a second set of 10. I also note how many times I manage to get into the second rack out of 10 tries.

At your break shot at 15, it would be interesting to see how often you got the next ball in the run (from the new rack).

 

[elvicash]

It looks like the "Predicted Probability" column is something like "chance of running X or more" in which case the entry for 0 should be 1.0.

When I'm practicing 14.1 my routine is similar but I only notice my total for 10 innings (which makes finding the average easy), and my high run in the 10 innings. If I'm playing badly, the 10 innings ends quickly and I get to play a second set of 10. I also note how many times I manage to get into the second rack out of 10 tries.

At your break shot at 15, it would be interesting to see how often you got the next ball in the run (from the new rack).

I agree Bob, getting the first ball in the follow up rack is a key factor in running balls. This allows you to get to where you can fix problems such as clearing out pockets or rails and also get to where you need to be for secondary breaks and fixing clusters.

I have had more than 350 innings and have yet to run a 50. That might change soon I am playing better myself. Good luck to you Rich

 

[iusedtoberich]

It looks like the "Predicted Probability" column is something like "chance of running X or more" in which case the entry for 0 should be 1.0.

When I'm practicing 14.1 my routine is similar but I only notice my total for 10 innings (which makes finding the average easy), and my high run in the 10 innings. If I'm playing badly, the 10 innings ends quickly and I get to play a second set of 10. I also note how many times I manage to get into the second rack out of 10 tries.

At your break shot at 15, it would be interesting to see how often you got the next ball in the run (from the new rack).

Yes, you are correct. That is how I originally had the formula for the "0 run" but I felt it was not useful information to me. I wanted that row in the spreadsheet to show me how many times I missed the first shot, and shot exactly 0. The probability of that happening is 1 minus the Ball Pocketing Accuracy. The actual occurrence for the 0 Run is how many occurrences I had that equaled exactly 0.

The formula for all the non-zero runs are "how many occurrences were "greater than or equal to" the Run Value.

I have added the 16th ball data yesterday, I'll take a screenshot and add it later on today.

I started this spreadsheet actually to keep track of my videos. I have my video camera hooked up directly to my computer, and every time I start a new inning, I just hit a button on the keyboard and it starts a new recording, and also auto-increments the file name. So my spreadsheet has all my video file names in it (which is basically the date with a dash 1, 2, 3 at the end of it), and what the run was for that video. I also make any comments such as I got stuck to the rack on the break, or the CB went up table on the end rail on the break, etc. I do this so that I can go back to that specific video and go frame by frame to try to see why the CB went where it did.

Once I saw how much data I had accumulated, I thought it would be interesting to calculate the odds of various runs, and share it with the group. I've only seen discussions of data like this for a very limited number of attempts, so I thought it would make for good discussion having a large data set.

 

[iusedtoberich]

suprised to see so many 1 ball runs.

Guessing your break shot(s) is the number one area for improvement.

I should update the chart headings...

The row where it says Run 0 is how many times I had a run of exactly 0 (in other words I missed the first ball). This is the only row like this.

All the other rows are like below:


The row where it says Run 5 is how many times I had a run of 5 "or higher".
The row where it says Run 10 is how many times I had a run of 10 "or higher".
etc.

That all said, I was trying out some new break shots, and did feel like I was missing more than I should. But, missing that break shot didn't stray too far from my overall shooting accuracy of .841.

*edit: had "higher" and "lower" backwards a few times, think I got it right now...

 

[michael4]

The formula for all the non-zero runs are "how many occurrences were "greater than or equal to" the Run Value.

OK, I get it now

I agree with someone who said you might be collecting more data than you can use. ?

Other than finding out how hard it is to run 50 :grin-square: , have you discovered the major factors that are ending your runs?

 

[iusedtoberich]

OK, I get it now


I agree with someone who said you might be collecting more data than you can use. ?

Other than finding out how hard it is to run 50 :grin-square: , have you discovered the major factors that are ending your runs?

Thank you all for the comments thus far

The spreadsheet was originally just to keep track of my video recordings, and how many I ran on it. It morphed into a statistical tool after I saw I had a ton of data.

I was writing down why some of the runs ended, and then it just became too tedious and I stopped. But from memory...

It seems the highest number of runs were ended due to just plain missed shots when I have an open table. I've been playing for 20 years and I doubt my shot making is going to improve much at this point. However, many of the missed ones were "simple" and I attribute it to a loss of focus on the shot, or thinking too much about the whole rack while executing the shot. I think I can improve the focus part, but probably not the raw shotmaking talent (or lack thereof )

Another is figuring out the right end pattern which will keep the shots simpler. I think I do a good job in the very beginning of the rack identifying the pattern to clear the clusters and manufacture the break balls, but I'm a bit lost on good ways to run the last few balls. As I'm learning, this has to be decided early on, so that you leave those last few balls where it makes the end pattern easier.

I think I've been doing fairly well keeping a break ball or manufacturing one when necessary.

The other is the CB getting stuck in the rack on the second break shot. I've been noting when that happens, and trying to go back frame by frame to see exactly where it hit the stack to learn from it. However, even advancing one frame at a time (30 frames per second), its often hard to see exactly where it was struck. I have seen a bunch of hte straight pool instructional, I think Grady's, Sigel's, Rempe's, and a several matches, in the mid 90's. Haven't seen those since (VHS...), and now I'm remembering what they said. If I recall however, they didn't go into extreme specifics on where the CB hits the rack. I only recall discussions of the cut angle, and how that affected follow or draw. Seeing some of the recent videos by the guy with the hand made table in EU (sorry I forgot his name now...), he goes into detail about what side of the OB in the stack the CB is hitting, and that determines the english. I don't recall that much detail in the videos from the 90's.

I'd like to start a discussion on that in the future, perhaps with a close up video on the contact point in the rack of various break shots to see what the CB does. I have searched for this topic, and came across a few thread, but none of them had close up pictures of what is happening that I came across.

Its funny, I'm at least twice as good now as I was 15 to 20 yrs ago when I played straight pool all the time in the pool room with the old timers I was in my teens then. I think my high run at the time was 27. Now, that I'm significantly better and way more seasoned, I haven't been able to get past 25 yet, in a solid month of playing. However, in one of Jewett's articles, I think on the running 10 rack proposition of 9 ball, he states if the race is longer than 10 racks, lets say 15, the odds improve dramatically. In other words, you don't have to start from 0 racks, you get multiple start attempts in the race to 15 compared to 10. So my high run from when I was an early teen and jsut learning pool, was probably from an open table from my opponent, cleared all those, made the break, and ran a few more. That makes a lot of sense from the statistics standpoint. I didn't even know what "manufacture a break ball" meant then.

 

[SpiderWebComm]

Iusedtoberich...

Try to video tape your next session. I'd like to see what you're doing. I recall that you made balls better than what your chart shows. We might be able to identify something that's holding you back.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk 2

 

[TSW]

My guess is that the "mistake" is often not on the ball you miss. It usually happens a couple of shots earlier when you start getting out of line. In essence, it's a series of small mistakes that make your run harder, until the mistakes culminate in a miss. Part of improving is minimizing the number of these small mistakes and recovering from them when they do occur.

I agree with SpiderWebComm - taping a session would help the analysis.

 

[iusedtoberich]

Iusedtoberich...

Try to video tape your next session. I'd like to see what you're doing. I recall that you made balls better than what your chart shows. We might be able to identify something that's holding you back.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk 2

Spider, I have my higher run videos posted on the straight pool 2013 challenge thread. They are all on the first post. Thanks

 

[3andstop]

I envy your desire and determination. :thumbup:

 

[Dan White]

Video Review

Hi Iusedtoberich (if in fact that is your name )

I took a quick look at your first 25 ball run video. I am not an instructor, but I think I know when things are not quite right. I've been given bad advice in the past so I'll try not to do that to you. Here are some quick thoughts:

1. You have a great room to play in. I play in a cold dungeon with boxes everywhere.
2. It is hard to see you shoot in most of the video because the camera is trained on the table. I can see your stroke in a few cases, though. I noticed something in your very first break shot, and confirmed it a couple of times after that. You take the cue back nicely, but when you start forward you are pushing your hand or your elbow outwards as you come forward, like a little "swoop." I think you need to fix this. People have unorthodox ways of shooting well (look at Lee Trevino in golf), but why not try to perfect your stroke? From all those hole reinforcers I can see you are detail oriented so I'm sure it is in your nature to want to get a perfect stroke motion. DO NOT underestimate the importance of a straight stroke. You can get away with it for 95% of the shots, but a stroke problem will bite you when you need extra power or extra accuracy. You missed the 4 ball in the corner and it very well could be due to that swoop.
3. Suggestion: I'm sure you have these already on your table but: Run a string from corner to corner and place one hole reinforcer 12" from one pocket, and the other in the center of the table lined up with the string. This will allow you to set up a corner-to-corner perfectly straight-in shot with the cue ball at the 12" from the pocket position. Your goal is to pocket the object ball and have the cue ball follow it in. Set up your camera behind the far corner pocket so that you have a good view of your stroke. Be sure to use follow. If you use center ball you will make all the shots, but it won't be an accurate enough test of your stroke. You need enough follow so that you can test your ability to cue the vertical axis. If you haven't done this before, it might be very revealing. You can also post that video for others to look at.
4. Just a comment or two on position. At about 4:05 I think it was a mistake to try and go around 2 rails to the 1 ball (the one you came up short on -- that was the f*ck shot :smile: ). All the balls were open and right near you so you had many options. I would have accepted that I might need to use the 1 as the key ball in the upper pocket (I assume you were trying to get above the 1 so you wouldn't have to shoot the longer shot in the upper corner??). It is far off the rail and so even with a little angle it shouldn't be too difficult a key ball. That's worst case scenario because if you shot the 2 and happened to get straight in on the 7 or 14, then you could have followed the 7 to the long rail and shot the 1 in the bottom corner, thus allowing you to use another, easier ball for the key.

You also could have shot the 2 and gotten parallel to the bottom rail for the 8 in the corner. Hit that shot with stun and the cue ball will come off the side rail to bump the 1 up level with the side pocket as a great key ball (it's an easy shot you just have to see it). If you miss the 1 then you still have every other ball to shoot at as back up.

IMO, you need to fix that swoop before you can expect to run higher numbers consistently. I'd rather see you try for something like 15 balls every day rather than lucking out a 50.

Just some ideas,

 

[michael4]

your stats say a little over 5 balls per attempt.

Wondering how do your balls spread after each break ?


(On my home table, I get a poor spread, which can really be a run killer, the right equipment makes a noticeable difference)