Most racks ever run on a Valley bar box

[cueenvy]

You are right we are talking about averages here and there can be big variances, but I still am not buying 20 break and runs in a row on a 7' table in 8 ball is any easier than it would be on a 9'. For me the big debate here is how easy people claim it is on a 7' Valley table simply because it is a 7' Valley table. Has it happened before? Possibly, but the forum elite here claim they can do 10+ with their eyes closed as it is just that easy (intended exaggeration).

Statistics simply do not lie and they show it is no easier on a 7' table than it is on a 9' table. PERIOD. So your claim that a 7' can produce elementary run outs is no more or less true than me saying 9' tables can produce pretty elementary run outs. Which means anyone claiming that they can BnR 10+ games on a Valley should also be able to make that same claim on a 9'.

No way you can say the tables are equivalent. If you played both table sizes well you'd understand Valleys are infinitely easier. Any player will say as much. I csn give the 6 and out to a guy on a big table who on a barbox would break even with me playing with 8 and a game.

One event quoted here had pros break and run 51 percent on Valleys in 8 ball. That's not happening on a 9....which even for top guys averages 25 to 35 percent in the long run.

 

[cueenvy]

As I said earlier. For pros, the most likely thing to stop a run is clusters (after they make a ball on the break) not missing a shot. Higher chance of having clusters on 7' table.
For an amateur it's a missed shot. Amateurs miss many more shots on 9' than 7' tables.
So for pros I would expect higher numbers of racks run in a row on a 9' table. For amateurs the opposite.

It also follows that overall pros will have longer runs so I would not be surprised if the most racks of 8-ball run in a row was higher on the 9' table.
If running racks meant something other than bragging rights there would be a lot more and higher verified runs.
Danny medina at Dubbs Pubb in Denver ran 19 racks of 9-ball. That was how many it took for all the players to get out. Then he quit without missing because he didn't want to play for free. (That's the story anyway. I wasn't there)
So what scenario would there be that a pro would run 12+ racks of 8-ball? Nobody plays ring 8 and there are no bar table 8-ball tournies that have races longer than 9 or so.
If someone put up minimum 20k for a video verified 20 rack run. Or the highest run by a certain date gets the prize - there would be A LOT of high runs. And the promoter would have a lot of video to sell.

12 racks of 8 is not world class on a bar box. If someone e wants to post 5 k I'll get it done in 30 days.....now 18 plus would be a better goal.

You are correct ....nobody has a reason to play winner break 8 ball long enough to see high runs. Mine occurred playing race to 4....4 sets...50 a set and I closed out the last 3....don't care if anyone believes it. If you don't and say it's not possible...then you don't understand what many players are capable of on a Valley.

 

[AtLarge]

... One event quoted here had pros break and run 51 percent on Valleys in 8 ball. That's not happening on a 9....which even for top guys averages 25 to 35 percent in the long run.

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=5255675&postcount=3

 

[GideonF]

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=5255675&postcount=3

Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but if we assume that top players break and run at 52% (which I think is the best your analysis shows on 7' tables), what is the probability of a 12 pack, or a 20 pack? Presumably it is a fairly simple probability analysis.

Gideon

 

[Skippy27]

One event quoted here had pros break and run 51 percent on Valleys in 8 ball. That's not happening on a 9....which even for top guys averages 25 to 35 percent in the long run.

You are right, it showed them doing it 54% of the time.

 

[Skippy27]

Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but if we assume that top players break and run at 52% (which I think is the best your analysis shows on 7' tables), what is the probability of a 12 pack, or a 20 pack? Presumably it is a fairly simple probability analysis.

Gideon

I think a couple pages back Bob posted that the chances of them doing it was .004% or something like that.

 

[GideonF]

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=5255675&postcount=3

I think a couple pages back Bob posted that the chances of them doing it was .004% or something like that.

Thanks. Found Bob's post. So using his suggested Google search, at 52% B&R, the chances of a 12 pack are 0.000390877(about 1 in 2,500, if I'm doing it right); the chances of a 20 pack are 0.0000020896 (about 1 in 500,000, if I'm doing it right). You can see how each additional game ramps us the odds.

Gideon

 

[greyghost]

the table sizes change the style of play. In 9 ball not much changes except for speed and distance of shot, and its definately easier.

On the 9ft.......9 ball is harder, as it has longer shots with more distance b/t balls.

On the 9ft 8ball is easier, than it is on the 7ft (opposite of 9 ball)

The bigger table spreads the 15 balls out better ingeneral, so less tie ups and easier to move around on the big table in 8 ball. On the 7ft, more clusters and your going to have to do some furniiture arranging.

I have ran 8 from the break in 8b on BB back in college, then just quit and sat on these big shoe shine chairs, king of the room lol.

Back in 06 I B&R 26 racks of 8 (not consectuively, high of 6 at event)at one of the McDermott All-american tour stops.

Most i've ever heard is for 9 ball on a BB....and its tied @ 28 games BR consecutively.

BY) #1 David Matlock 28 racks
#2 Fat Randy Wallace 28 racks, miss........28 more racks.

even if i was the loser on the other end i think i'd mayhave to keep shilling out just to let the run keep going lol

-Greyghost

 

[Bob Jewett]

Thanks. Found Bob's post. So using his suggested Google search, at 52% B&R, the chances of a 12 pack are 0.000390877(about 1 in 2,500, if I'm doing it right); the chances of a 20 pack are 0.0000020896 (about 1 in 500,000, if I'm doing it right). You can see how each additional game ramps us the odds.

Gideon

And as mentioned before, the 20 can occur only if there is a situation (long, long set or back-to-back sets or session) that permits it.

On the other hand, if the break is consistently pocketing 2-3 balls and the 9 is falling in from time to time and the 1 ball is under control, the percentage could be better than 52%. It would be interesting to know whether the reported 28-packs had something special going on.

 

[sixpack]

They had races to 15 barbox 8 ball at the Carom Room last year. 2k entry fee. In the last one, Alex P was down 12-9 (I believe) and ran out the set to win 15-12.

That's good to know. Makes you wonder how many would he have run if the match wasn't over?

 

[9andout]

Dropped another 1 Pack on a co-worker at the bar last night!
Oh yeah! (Valley BB)

 

[sixpack]

And as mentioned before, the 20 can occur only if there is a situation (long, long set or back-to-back sets or session) that permits it.

On the other hand, if the break is consistently pocketing 2-3 balls and the 9 is falling in from time to time and the 1 ball is under control, the percentage could be better than 52%. It would be interesting to know whether the reported 28-packs had something special going on.

I watched Matlock in his prime and when his break was working on the bar table it was something else. Corner ball for sure, usually one or two more and everything spread out, CB somewhere in the middle and 1 ball coming out off the rail by the side pocket.

He was just running the same layout game after game and it felt like he'd never miss.

Just another note about odds to break and run. They had a challenge table at shooters in Wichita and it paid $100 if you broke and ran. You had bet depending on your skill. So if you were a decent player you might put up $10 to win the hundred. Oh, they racked 35 balls and you could shoot them in any order but you had to make them all without scratching. I don't remember if you had to make a ball on the break. No ball in hand after the break.

If you managed to do it they would raise your odds. I think I was at about $35 to win the hundred. Making me somewhere south of a 1 in 4 shot after you figure the house odds. The guy with the highest odds was Junior Brown. He had to put up over $300 to win $100. And he kept beating them that way so they stopped letting him play at all.

So a bar box, not 8-ball, but shooting 35 balls, and a guy who most people have never heard of is better than 3-1 favorite to run out. He was almost automatic to run those 35 balls. I saw him do it several times. I don't think I ever saw him not run out now that I'm thinking about it.

That's what can happen when you have the incentives lined up to run out.

 

[sixpack]

12 racks of 8 is not world class on a bar box. If someone e wants to post 5 k I'll get it done in 30 days.....now 18 plus would be a better goal.

You are correct ....nobody has a reason to play winner break 8 ball long enough to see high runs. Mine occurred playing race to 4....4 sets...50 a set and I closed out the last 3....don't care if anyone believes it. If you don't and say it's not possible...then you don't understand what many players are capable of on a Valley.

I agree 12 is not world class. I just picked that because longest tournament races I've heard in a while was 11.

As an aside - I don't doubt that you did run those racks. When you're out there playing on the BBs all the time those magical things happen that defy the odds. I won eleven handicapped bar table tournaments in a row one time in a two week period. The odds against that are astronomical, even if I'm an 80% favorite to win every match.

 

[realkingcobra]

12 racks of 8 is not world class on a bar box. If someone e wants to post 5 k I'll get it done in 30 days.....now 18 plus would be a better goal.

You are correct ....nobody has a reason to play winner break 8 ball long enough to see high runs. Mine occurred playing race to 4....4 sets...50 a set and I closed out the last 3....don't care if anyone believes it. If you don't and say it's not possible...then you don't understand what many players are capable of on a Valley.

If you're willing to bet you CAN run 12 racks of 8 ball in a row from the break....I'll take that bet, and.even let you double up every time you fail to do so!

 

[cueenvy]

If you're willing to bet you CAN run 12 racks of 8 ball in a row from the break....I'll take that bet, and.even let you double up every time you fail to do so!

You need to stay away from whatever chemicals you are inhaling. I already done it so yeah I know I can.

You want to play straght up champ I'll post 1k with anybody....and I got heads.

 

[Tin Man]

If you're willing to bet you CAN run 12 racks of 8 ball in a row from the break....I'll take that bet, and.even let you double up every time you fail to do so!

Beat me to the punch RKC.

I guess we define world class differently.

If I had to bet my life on either running 12 racks on a valley or running 12 racks of straight pool for a run of 168...boy, it would be close.

I mean, if you could guarantee me a ball on the break I would love it. I would think I could run 12 racks being spotted first shot daily.

But the break is the issue. If you're 50/50 to make a ball, we're talking 1/4,096 to make a ball 12 consecutive breaks. That would mean that you'd have to literally give yourself 4100 chances just to get ONE OPPORTUNITY to run out twelve times in a row, which ain't easy.

As for those break percentages, I've seen enough play to know how spooky the break can be. You can watch SVB break and the rock just pops back and the entire rack looks like it rockets into the end rail and races for the head pockets as balls fly in everywhere...it can look physically impossible to come up dry...but then the next break it will happen, and they just don't go in.

I guess this could start another thread about "least dry breaks out of 100". I'm sure there would be quite a debate on what our dry break % would be. I would be that I could clear 50%, but I wouldn't want to push it much further. Anyone that thinks they're 75% or 80% is choosing to forget those frustrating streaks when they come up dry 5 times in a row.

So with that all in mind, I think I'd play the straight pool and play to 168. I haven't run 168, but I haven't run 12 racks of valley bar box either. I think I'd prefer to have 4,096 chances to run 12 racks, not 1.

 

[realkingcobra]

You need to stay away from whatever chemicals you are inhaling. I already done it so yeah I know I can.

You want to play straght up champ I'll post 1k with anybody....and I got heads.

Let's finish up the first bet you challenged for 5K, running 12 racks from the break....you said you could do it....so, I'll put up 5K against your 5K.....that you can't, and like I said, every time you fail, I'll let you double up the bet that way you have a chance to get your money back. Why are you trying to get out of your own bragging bet?

 

[Agent 99]

Let's finish up the first bet you challenged for 5K, running 12 racks from the break....you said you could do it....so, I'll put up 5K against your 5K.....that you can't, and like I said, every time you fail, I'll let you double up the bet that way you have a chance to get your money back. Why are you trying to get out of your own bragging bet?

Perhaps he would prefer ball in hand after the break? Would that be a more sensible bet?

Just saying...

 

[realkingcobra]

Perhaps he would prefer ball in hand after the break? Would that be a more sensible bet?

Just saying...

No, his big mouth said break and run 12 racks on a Valley bar box playing 8 ball, so I'm willing to challenge his bet, I'll put up 5K against his that he has no chance in hell, let alone within 30 days as he claims he can do it. I'll even let him double up his bet and keep trying, bet....fail, bet again....fail again.....as long as he has the money to cover the next bet....I'm IN!

 

[BmoreMoney]

Here we go, 10 more pages and ????? bannings???