It should be mentioned that playing an actual match is far different than just trying to run balls. The reason being there's consequences if you miss or make a mistake so you don't do it.
For example Earl kicking in that ball off the long rail. Or any one of a number of shots he made that in a real match you would probably play safe in and the run would end. So when somebody ran 100 or 150 in a real match it was a pretty clean run or they would have quit and played safe.
That's not saying in a real match a player won't go for a fairly low percentage shot because the reward is going to be pretty good you're still at the table. But you're not going to be doing the crazy stuff you'll do trying to maintain a run.
I saw Joe Balsis play quite a few times and he wasn't allergic to shooting a low percentage shot to stay at the table. So was Miz. In fact in the case of Miz that might have been his power, he was liable to shoot anything.
I saw him beat Crane once shooting at a ball from the end rail after some safety play. After the match Crane yelled in his face telling him he didn't know how to play. "You should not have shot that shot" and took his cue apart and walked away. That may be, but Miz still won.
I myself was kind of a straight pool nut and having owned pool rooms I often get on the table and practice for hours just straight pool. People sitting around watching me play if I got in trouble would often be around the table trying to figure out what I should do to keep going.
I would never do that. If it wasn't something I would do in a game I wouldn't do it. I've seen players practicing run 80 90 100 balls. In the course of the run shoot Banks maybe even getting out of line on a break shot and bank the corner ball get lucky and make it.
It would be kind of like running say 90 and another run of say 112 back to back, then claiming he ran 202 because of course if he just hadn't missed that ball in between he would have.
Many players have won many matches without ever having missed a ball. Combination of runs and safety play. What their doing in the challenge while interesting is not real straight pool. And I'm sure it's not meant to be.
Having said all that, I have no doubt if Earl shows up at a straight pool tournament he's fully capable of winning against anybody. There's been champions in the past that have had reckless styles of play, he wouldn't be the first.
I don't really think what you are saying is wrong, but I do think you're missing the point somewhat.
Certainly, you'll need to make some shots when you go for a high run that you may not attempt during a tough, even match. Earl shoots those shots as well as anyone who's ever lived I think, at least he used to in his heyday. HOWEVER, that is not to say that a high run attempt, especially a potential record breaker would typically look like a complete circus. On the contrary, high runs typically look quite boring for much of the time. The only exception to this I think is John Schmidt. He's always blasting in insane shots from all over the place, but he's very atypical. So it would look much like a match run for the entire time with very few exceptions. Also, shooting a low percentage shot may be your only chance in top level competition, where your opponent is unlikely to make big mistakes. Thorsten Hohman, for instance will often shoot very tough shots and make them, in top level competition. Saw him start a run with a 2 rail kick and then run out the game. When you're playing the best you can't expect them to give you anything easy. You usually have to make things happen. Playing people at lower levels, it may pay to be more conservative.
I think the secret to consistent high runs is to MAKE SURE of having the angle you want, not kind of knowing, but being absolutely sure. Shooting the right shot at the right time and not really burning up a lot of energy on hard pots or positions. Simple shots, with predictable outcomes. That may look different for me and a player of Earls caliber, but I don't think it would look quite as different as what has been displayed during his attempts. Earl has all the firepower and touch in the world, but he's not as consistent as his ability would indicate. He takes too many risks, not in his big shots (you have to make those) but in the way he runs the rack. Those mistakes are not as easy to spot, because they are often made earlier in the rack and then manifest their effects later. An example could be removing the best break ball, the best key ball or even the best keyball to the keyball (k2k) early in the rack. Another example could be leaving problem balls on the table for too long, so you can't play a good end pattern. Earl frequently does either or both of those things, then relies on on his touch to get back in line. And it works, most of the time. Thats the thing that makes it hard for the novice or anyone, really, to spot the problems with that approach. Working most of the time will not be good enough for the record breaking runs. Fighting through racks will usually also cause a miss later. You just ran out of energy and focus, and then miss a routine shot. Seen it a million times. For a record breaking run, you'll need a quick pace (like Earl has) and a deep knowledge of patterns so you don't have to think or scramble on every rack (Earl, well...he does a lot of scrambling).
One guy tried to make a simple mathematical prediction model, but it doesn't work. You can't brute force or luck yourself to 600, because you'll run out of energy. Peak concentration is finite and cannot be maintained for more than an hour, and typically less. If you need peak concentration to get out of routine layouts, you'll burn out before the 200 mark typically, even if you're a shotmaking savant. Most top players, if they play a little 14.1 will get to the high 200's eventually. Very few get to 400, because it takes a different kind of play. Careful, methodical, yet fairly fast paced. It's not possible for just anyone, even in the higher echelons.
