Are custom cues going to go the way of the auto industry???

[brandoncook26]

Just something I have been thinking about. Let me preface it with what originally brought this about. Twelve or thirteen years ago, I worked at Toyota manufacturing (TMMK) with an electrician group. I am not an electrician, but I had an in and did some of the small jobs on the weekend.

At this particular plant in Georgetown, KY, while the line was running, a new Camry came out just about every two minutes. The first thing that came to mind was "who is going to buy all these cars?". I remember having discussions with my co-workers about how cars are lasting longer and longer and eventually things would have to flip upside down.

Sure enough, 10 years after that, the auto industry crashed and sales of new cars plummeted. I don't think we have seen the end of it either, but that is for another discussion.

Relating this to cues, I see more and more new cue makers, and the established guys are almost all still around. I know cues, for the most part, are a smaller purchase than a car. You can buy a cue for a few hundred, so the ability to purchase multiples is much greater than with a car. But the problem still exists.

It seems that there are many more sellers than buyers lately on here. Even guys who collect a lot of cues have been thinning the herd. I like buying and selling cues, but I have slowed down and only have a handful of cues. I might buy a few more, but not to the degree I have in the past. All the while, cue makers are still putting out new cues every day. Additionally, cues have the potential to last much longer than cars. I have a 69' Joss that is in 90% of the condition it was the day it was finished.

Are cues going to go the way of cars? Will there eventually be an over abundance of cues that push many cue makers out when their new cues are not selling at near the speed they used to?

Curious to others opinions. This honestly can relate to any long term good, houses is another example. I just related it to cars because that thought resonated with me the entire time I worked at Toyota.

-Brandon

 

[mnorwood]

Just something I have been thinking about. Let me preface it with what originally brought this about. Twelve or thirteen years ago, I worked at Toyota manufacturing (TMMK) with an electrician group. I am not an electrician, but I had an in and did some of the small jobs on the weekend.

At this particular plant in Georgetown, KY, while the line was running, a new Camry came out just about every two minutes. The first thing that came to mind was "who is going to buy all these cars?". I remember having discussions with my co-workers about how cars are lasting longer and longer and eventually things would have to flip upside down.

Sure enough, 10 years after that, the auto industry crashed and sales of new cars plummeted. I don't think we have seen the end of it either, but that is for another discussion.

Relating this to cues, I see more and more new cue makers, and the established guys are almost all still around. I know cues, for the most part, are a smaller purchase than a car. You can buy a cue for a few hundred, so the ability to purchase multiples is much greater than with a car. But the problem still exists.

It seems that there are many more sellers than buyers lately on here. Even guys who collect a lot of cues have been thinning the herd. I like buying and selling cues, but I have slowed down and only have a handful of cues. I might buy a few more, but not to the degree I have in the past. All the while, cue makers are still putting out new cues every day. Additionally, cues have the potential to last much longer than cars. I have a 69' Joss that is in 90% of the condition it was the day it was finished.

Are cues going to go the way of cars? Will there eventually be an over abundance of cues that push many cue makers out when their new cues are not selling at near the speed they used to?

Curious to others opinions. This honestly can relate to any long term good, houses is another example. I just related it to cars because that thought resonated with me the entire time I worked at Toyota.

-Brandon

I agree that this is the case for North America, but don't forget that the popularity of pool is growing in China and Southeast Asia. While the market is going away here its increasing in China.

 

[Dannydizzan]

As long as there are new players there will be a demand. People buy cues and keep them and can only play with one at a time, yet they buy and buy. It's a hobby and people feed their hobbies.

 

[MitchAlsup]

Sure enough, 10 years after that, the auto industry crashed and sales of new cars plummeted.

The problem was not created by the manufacture of automobiles, the problem was the manufacture of financial instruments that few people can understand.

The vast majority of car sales occur because someone is willing to loan money to the eventual buyer of the car. When there are no loans to be had, the amount of new cars being sold drops to almost zero.

Once again, this is/was a problem of finance not from manufacture.

 

[Maniac]

As long as there are new players there will be a demand.

There's a little something to this. If you don't believe it, then use your search engine and type in "world population growth tables" as a keyword and see for yourself. The predictions will scare the hell out of you!!!

I put in 30 years at the General Motors plant in Arlington, Texas. We put out a Tahoe/Yukon/Escalade at a rate of 55/an hour. I also always wondered where in the hell all of these new vehicles were going, not to mention all the ones from all the many other manufacturing plants too!!!

Maniac

 

[63Kcode]

Just look at the size of cases now. When I played years back about half the players played off the wall. The others had one cue. Now half have a case with a break, jump and playing cue. The other half have just one cue. Add to that the idea that longer cues are better suited to today's players and I see a strong demand for cues in the future. If the game will grow.
Might be a day in the future where pro players will have a caddy to keep their cues handy. For every shoot might have it's own cue.

Larry

 

[CocoboloCowboy]

Read Willie Mosconi Biography, Willie's Game, MOSCONI STATE IN THE BOOK POOL has been going down hill, or loosing popularity since the year of his birth 1913 in the USA.

 

[DallasHopps]

On topic, I feel like market saturation is a lot less of a concern here, because cues are easily stored and not as much of a financial burden. I don't have to register, pay taxes on, or insure my cues. If I get another, it doesn't cost me anything to keep the old one. I have a handful of not-very-valuable cues that are taking up hardly any resources and I've continued to buy more simply because I can. Pool players in general seem to like impulse buying (the gambler's easy come, easy go money management strategy) and the "magic bullet" mentality for cues keeps a lot of us in a buying mood.

 

[JB Cases]

I agree that this is the case for North America, but don't forget that the popularity of pool is growing in China and Southeast Asia. While the market is going away here its increasing in China.

China MIGHT be the savior of small-time cue making. It's still up in the air and still influenced greatly by a few dealers and what they choose to promote here.

Saturday night I was playing and on the table next to me was guys playing with two SouthWests and a big Tad, a Whitten case and a carved Instroke. Guy on our table had a $1000 Schon he bought in the USA on a business trip.

But when I mentioned to my friend that I had a few cues I might sell in the $800-$1800 range he frowned at the brands saying that they were unknown in China. So there is a grey area between the "big" brands like Gina, SouthWest, Tad, JossWest and the the known brands like Predator.

Smaller cue makers don't get a lot of promotion here. Some dealers are branching out and trying though. I have seen Omens, and Capones and Nittis and a few others.

Japan in the 90s helped a lot of small cue makers. China could possibly do the same but China is also fickle. Pool is not as popular in China as people think it is and is already waning in some places.

But who knows, China is one huge economy of scale mystery. The old idea of if I just get 1% of 1% of 1% of the people to buy my stuff I will be rich certainly applies in China.

As for cues killing themselves with their own durabilty I don't really see that happening. Cues have been pretty stable as instruments since the 60s for anyone making them right. I think that the big sea change is that the Taiwanese/Chinese cue makers have now learned how to build stable cues and that has flooded the market with pretty good cues at low prices. It used to be that a $100 cue was pretty much a throwaway. Now they last far longer and some come with lifetime guarantees.

I think it's like all else, water finds it's level and so does cue making. With over 700 active cue makers in the USA plus all the imports there is simply a lot of cues in the market. In that vast array there are those at the very top with lists that never end and those who struggle to make ends meet.

One thing that is a bit different at this point in time as opposed to other times in history is the hobby business. In cue making, knife making and a lot of other crafts there are thousands of practicioners who do it from their home-based shops. They run a quasi-business operation alongside their day jobs and compete with those who run their business as a full-time occupation.

People often undervalue the effect that this source of products has on the market as a whole. When Viking loses a cue sale it's often that the Evil Chinese and their imports are blamed and not Joe Garagecuemaker who has no extra overhead, likely pays no taxes on his hobby business and has no employees with attendant costs.

The fact that it's possible for individuals to produce sophisticated products like custom cues in their garages is a huge part of what's changing the landscape in cues in my opinion. And I think it's a good thing. I think that the more individuals are able to make things the better those things will get over all and the market will settle where it needs to settle.

 

[snipershot]

The problem with the auto industry doesn't have anything to do with making cars so good that they last forever. Not too long ago there were only a few choices, and most of those were made in the USA and the local economy was supported heavily by the entire process. There were small towns that thrived because they had a factory that made parts for GM, or Ford, or Chrysler. As time went on, new car companies like Kia and Hyundai popped up and before you knew it, there were many more choices and people will almost always buy cheaper products, even if they know its inferior. Hell, look at harbor freight, lol. Many of the new brands don't buy local made parts, they import it all from china or india or wherever is cheapest. So now the guy that used to buy a new car every few years lost his job because the factory closed, and the trend stops. Prices go up on everything, but most peoples income stays the same, or goes lower. There will never be another Tim Scruggs, or Herman Rambow, or Gus Szamboti. With that said, there are some great looking cues being made by some new makers out there. I don't think its possible to compare the two industries.

Joe

 

[brandoncook26]

One thing that is a bit different at this point in time as opposed to other times in history is the hobby business. In cue making, knife making and a lot of other crafts there are thousands of practicioners who do it from their home-based shops. They run a quasi-business operation alongside their day jobs and compete with those who run their business as a full-time occupation.

The fact that it's possible for individuals to produce sophisticated products like custom cues in their garages is a huge part of what's changing the landscape in cues in my opinion. And I think it's a good thing. I think that the more individuals are able to make things the better those things will get over all and the market will settle where it needs to settle.

This adds to my point. I have a few cues from well known makers. Out of the three cues I use as my daily players (player, break, and jump) two of the three are made by a guy many people on here have never heard of. Him being a friend helped me to get them. His cues play as well and in some respects better than many high end cues I have or have played with.

If he didn't make cues, I would absolutely be playing with something along the lines of a Tad or South West, etc. The fact that a small garage cue maker is in my area further increased the available pool.

I believe that the reality of cuemaking is that the average AZ follower is much more in tune with amount of cue makers than many others are. Most of the people in my home room know what a Schon is, but I doubt many know Tad, Gina, Tascarella, etc. I have a Rick Howard break cue and only five people I play with have ever heard of him.

The cue collecting world, at least in America, is much smaller than most think. This is more to the idea of my post more than anything. With the cue world being as niche as it is, at what point does supply exceed demand?

 

[brandoncook26]

There will never be another Tim Scruggs, or Herman Rambow, or Gus Szamboti. With that said, there are some great looking cues being made by some new makers out there. I don't think its possible to compare the two industries.

Joe

I think some people are reading too much into the analogy. The lead in from auto making was the fact that so many cars were produced from that one single plant.

Regardless of the specifics of foreign vs domestic, financial instruments involved (which I know much of having a finance/economics BA), the point was the question of whether or not the amount being made would soon overtake the demand for the product.

Relating that to the cue market, how does the number of cuemakers affect the demand?

 

[snipershot]

I think some people are reading too much into the analogy. The lead in from auto making was the fact that so many cars were produced from that one single plant.

Regardless of the specifics of foreign vs domestic, financial instruments involved (which I know much of having a finance/economics BA), the point was the question of whether or not the amount being made would soon overtake the demand for the product.

Relating that to the cue market, how does the number of cuemakers affect the demand?

I'm just getting started in cue making, and there is already more demand than I can keep up with. I was worried when I started that nobody would want my cues, but I'm already 6 months behind, lol. I think the demand is out there and unless custom makers start cranking them out like auto makers, we will all be fine. Sorry if I over-read the analogy.

Joe

 

[Quesports]

Personally I like the analogy because the American auto industry got complacent and thought they could get away with producing junk. Guess what companies from other countries noticed and made better cars. Lo and behold Americans bought them and still do. When and if cuemakers from other countries do the same then the same will happen, till then the established cuemakers here that make high quality cues have nothing to worry about. It may be that the market for a new cuemaker is very difficult and if the pool industry does not take steps to market itself better then who knows. Personally I have always believed that the cuemakers should thank the pool leagues for bringing so much business to their doorsteps. The exposure from leagues is enormous to the cuemakers IMO!!!

 

[JB Cases]

There will never be another Tim Scruggs, or Herman Rambow, or Gus Szamboti. With that said, there are some great looking cues being made by some new makers out there. I don't think its possible to compare the two industries.

Joe

Why would you think that there will never be any more cue makers like Scruggs, Rambow, and Szamboti?

What made these guys special that other cue makers aren't able to do?

For that matter wouldn't Barry Szamboti be the same as his father in terms of cue making or has he changed the way he builds cues?

Other people have x-rayed Balabushkas to learn how they were made, it's not a huge mystery.

And Rambow? He wasn't the first to splice wood together, nor the first to make a two piece cue.

I think we place far too much on the shoulders of these famous makers. They all built good solid cues but then so did and do many many many many other cue makers living and dead. Is Ernie Gutierez's cue any less of a cue than a Bushka? Is Tad's? Both of these guys were making cues in the same era.

Today you have guys like Dennis Searing who are actively trying really hard to develop stronger ways to make cues. In fact I'd say that there are dozens if not hundreds of guys out there experimenting with how to put wood together in the strongest way possible that still has a good feeling.

What about Bill Schick? Tascarella? There are so many cue makers who were there or to whom the torch has been passed successfully that it's not an accurate statement to say there will never be another cue maker as good as some famous one.

Tony Scianella would certainly bristle at the thought that his cues were inferior to anyone else's living or dead.

So while I don't really know what this statement has to do with the point of the original post I would say that objectively speaking there are now MANY cue makers as good or -gasp- better than Balabushka and Rambow and Gus Szamboti. Maybe not better in construction, though that is debatable, but certainly many who are way better in design.

 

[or1pkt]

Why would you think that there will never be any more cue makers like Scruggs, Rambow, and Szamboti?

What made these guys special that other cue makers aren't able to do?

For that matter wouldn't Barry Szamboti be the same as his father in terms of cue making or has he changed the way he builds cues?

Other people have x-rayed Balabushkas to learn how they were made, it's not a huge mystery.

And Rambow? He wasn't the first to splice wood together, nor the first to make a two piece cue.

I think we place far too much on the shoulders of these famous makers. They all built good solid cues but then so did and do many many many many other cue makers living and dead. Is Ernie Gutierez's cue any less of a cue than a Bushka? Is Tad's? Both of these guys were making cues in the same era.

Today you have guys like Dennis Searing who are actively trying really hard to develop stronger ways to make cues. In fact I'd say that there are dozens if not hundreds of guys out there experimenting with how to put wood together in the strongest way possible that still has a good feeling.

What about Bill Schick? Tascarella? There are so many cue makers who were there or to whom the torch has been passed successfully that it's not an accurate statement to say there will never be another cue maker as good as some famous one.

Tony Scianella would certainly bristle at the thought that his cues were inferior to anyone else's living or dead.

So while I don't really know what this statement has to do with the point of the original post I would say that objectively speaking there are now MANY cue makers as good or -gasp- better than Balabushka and Rambow and Gus Szamboti. Maybe not better in construction, though that is debatable, but certainly many who are way better in design.

Tap tap tap...good post.. Nothing against Szam, bushka, Scruggs etc they are great but I don't think one can say there's a best and personally I don't even think we ve seen the BEST yet or the greatest

 

[The Renfro]

There will always be a place for collectors cues much like antique golf clubs... Pool is just starting to get interested in technology and in time the cues made by the standards of the future will indeed be far superior to the antiques.... It could actually already be argued that way but todo so would incite massive coronaries within the "solid old growth wood shafts are as good as any" contingent.......

 

[hang-the-9]

If everyone stopped playing pool now, and new players never showed up, this would be the case.

Plus pool players are like Apple customers. Every 3 months there is something more shiny they need to buy even if what they have works just fine.

 

[bobroberts]

I believe there are many new cue makers who buy a lathe and then realize that making a cue isn't so easy. Then even if they learn to make good cues it is hard to stay in business with few orders coming in. It takes awhile to establish a reputation and when you do, you can't flood the market because it will devalue your cue. When you get into some of the higher end cues, you can usually sell them for at least what you paid if it is a well known C.M. So the supply for cues less then 1K will be much larger then the supply for the higher end cue's but a lot of CMs can't make enough money to pay their bills just by building cues. So my point is even though a lot of guys build cues only a few last and make a name for themselves. Plus the CMs who advertise on AZ you can see them come and go.

 

[cuenut]

You are correct in the fact that there are many more cuemakers out there now than there used to be, but it comes down to available buyers and their willingness to pay. The big name makers will, IMO, always have a market, but the "2nd tier" and below cuemakers will have a harder time during economic downturns like the one we are experiencing now. Many will go by the wayside over time because they will not have a market. That is no different than what happened in the auto industry (Nash, Edsel, AMC, etc.)
Althought the US automaker market appears to have decreased, the import autos have gone up (just look at what's on the road these days). I see lower end cues, import cues, etc much more frequently where I live than I do custom cues, and don't expect that to ever change.