Does the Score Dictate Your Shot Selection? Should It?

[Bob Jewett]

The score most definitely affects my shot selection and I think it should.

Quite a lot of times you will be faced with chosing between playing an offensive shot and a defensive one, if I am well ahead I tend to go more offensive. If my oppenent is on the hill I will almost always chose a good safety over a less then 90% shot.

gr. Dave

Unless you include psychological factors, this is the wrong strategy.

As mentioned by SJM above, at nine ball each rack is a race to one and you should do your very best to win each rack. Your ability to win the next rack is not affected by what happens in the current rack unless you consider the small effect of the break (if you are playing winner breaks).

If you pass up an 89% shot, you better be a 90% favorite to have the next open shot after the safety exchange. If you are only 80% to win the safety battle, you wasted an opportunity.

 

[TheNewSharkster]

This topic is interesting. It reminds me of poker strategy. Say for example you are in a hand of poker and your opponent goes all in but is very short stacked. You might call him with a subpar hand knowing that if you win he will be out and you don't have to commit a lot of chips.

I think the same thing is true in pool. For example, say you are on the hill and your opponent is way behind. You are left with a tough shot but have the option to play safe. You can go for the tough shot knowing that if you make it you win the match but if you miss your opponent is still behind.

Personally I play more aggressive when I have a lead.

 

[sjm]

This topic is interesting. It reminds me of poker strategy. Say for example you are in a hand of poker and your opponent goes all in but is very short stacked. You might call him with a subpar hand knowing that if you win he will be out and you don't have to commit a lot of chips.

I think the same thing is true in pool. For example, say you are on the hill and your opponent is way behind. You are left with a tough shot but have the option to play safe. You can go for the tough shot knowing that if you make it you win the match but if you miss your opponent is still behind.

Personally I play more aggressive when I have a lead.

This is interesting. Must admit that I have played Texas Holden 'Em poker for money only twice in my life but I've seen it on TV. My thinking here, however, is that every rack is one having an ante of 1 rack with no raises allowed. I'm not sure that, with the lead, you can bully your opponent the same way you could in poker.

 

[TheNewSharkster]

This is interesting. Must admit that I have played Texas Holden 'Em poker for money only twice in my life but I've seen it on TV. My thinking here, however, is that every rack is one having an ante of 1 rack with no raises allowed. I'm not sure that, with the lead, you can bully your opponent the same way you could in poker.

But you can take some lower percent shots knowing that if you miss you will not be eliminated. To be clear, I was using the poker analogy in respect to a poker tournament, not a straight up money poker game.

 

[SeabrookMiglla]

i think that its a different in style/personality. some people are naturally more defensive or offensive.

i think momentum in the game definitely influences that decision of whether to go for it or not.

its tough to decide. because you may be familiar with a difficult shot in front of you, and sometimes you are not too comfortable with the scenario at hand.

i think being too defensive messes with your shot making confidence. but at the same time, you cant neglect a good safe.

they say whenever you are down 9- 0 and your opponent is on the hill, but it is your shot- what do you have to lose at that point?

 

[DrGonzo]

For me, it depends on the game.

 

[buckshotshoey]

Hard shot, easy safe, take the safe. Hard shot, hard safe, shoot the shot. No matter what the score.

Vote #2 for this. If the safe is easier the the shot, I play the safe every time. Doesn't matter what the score is. If the safe is as hard as or harder then the shot, let your balls hang out and go for it!

Add.....when playing league or tournament. If playing with buddies and it doesn't mean anything, go for the shot. Good practice.

 

[victorl]

I often find myself playing differently depending on the score, but I think it's because most of the time, the score is a reflection of how I'm playing at the time. If I feel like my game is off for whatever reason, I would rather grind it out and drag my opponent down with a more defensive style than if I were playing at a high gear.

 

[Old Nine Baller]

I think it undoubtedly influences shot selection, but it doesn't dictate the selection.

One example as to how it often appears when I play: a wide disparity in score, I am either far ahead or behind and am faced with a bank that I think will probably allow me to run the rest of the balls needed to win. Should I choose to pass on the bank, I expect my opponent will have a shot of similar choice...

With a wide disparity in score, I will probably go for it. If the score is close, I will be less inclined to do so.

The above example envisioned a rotation game, but playing the score in 1p is absolutely known to providing a benefit. You will acknowledge players with a lead will often knock balls up table or tie them up to effectively eliminate any chance of their opponents running out.

To claim the score does not influence shot selection is myopic, IMO.

The ball count in an individual game of 1 Pocket is not the topic of the OP. The topic is SET score.

Nobody claimed the score does not influence shot selection, only that it is unproductive and not too smart to let it.

ONB

 

[Black-Balled]

The ball count in an individual game of 1 Pocket is not the topic of the OP. The topic is SET score.

Nobody claimed the score does not influence shot selection, only that it is unproductive and not too smart to let it.

ONB

The game score was an analogy.

Analogies are comparisons of similar situations that often help to restate points, which leads to reexamination of the original topic from a somewhat new perspective.

The topic of shot selection- in the context of either games or ball count- shares many similarities. The idea of shooting a Harrigan to close out the set is much like tying up 2 of 3 remaining balls in 1p. Successful execution of either would leave the incoming player virtuall no chance of winning from there.

Please remember that a forum is a dynamic conversation medium and one cannot dictate what another chooses to contribute.

 

[Old Nine Baller]

The ball count in an individual game of 1 Pocket is not the topic of the OP. The topic is SET score.

Nobody claimed the score does not influence shot selection, only that it is unproductive and not too smart to let it.

ONB

The game score was an analogy.

Analogies are comparisons of similar situations that often help to restate points, which leads to reexamination of the original topic from a somewhat new perspective.

The topic of shot selection- in the context of either games or ball count- shares many similarities. The idea of shooting a Harrigan to close out the set is much like tying up 2 of 3 remaining balls in 1p. Successful execution of either would leave the incoming player virtuall no chance of winning from there.

Please remember that a forum is a dynamic conversation medium and one cannot dictate what another chooses to contribute.

The game score was an incorrect and non-applicable analogy. I maintain that the set score has nothing to do with what the "right" shot is for you. They share no similarities and are in no way related, because of this they cannot be used to compare to each other.

I know what a forum is, nobody is dictating anything here. You simply don't know what you are talking about.

The set score should in no way affect the choice of shot, ever. This cannot be changed by league players stating their experience in a bar or a guy telling us how he plays his friend in his basement. You learn by betting your money and that's the only way to learn correctly.

ONB

 

[Black-Balled]

The game score was an incorrect and non-applicable analogy. I maintain that the set score has nothing to do with what the "right" shot is for you. They share no similarities and are in no way related, because of this they cannot be used to compare to each other.

I know what a forum is, nobody is dictating anything here. You simply don't know what you are talking about.

The set score should in no way affect the choice of shot, ever. This cannot be changed by league players stating their experience in a bar or a guy telling us how he plays his friend in his basement. You learn by betting your money and that's the only way to learn correctly.

ONB

But would you agree that the best defense is winning the game without giving your opponent another turn? You know, best defense is good offense?

With a big lead, one can attempt to close it out with reduced risk of an error that might cost him the set.

Not even going to talk about the alleged requirement that one bet money to learn to play pool well...

 

[Andrew Manning]

If you pass up an 89% shot, you better be a 90% favorite to have the next open shot after the safety exchange. If you are only 80% to win the safety battle, you wasted an opportunity.

I agree with this completely, and I think it's an overlooked aspect of considering the relative ease of an offensive and defensive shot: you have to compare making the offensive shot vs. making the next offensive shot after playing safe, not just executing one safety.

If you are playing well and pocketing balls well during this game and are full of confidence then I say take the shot.

And this says it all, and is so huge I can't believe more people aren't mentioning it.

Q: How did I get up 6-1? A: I'M IN STROKE. Does whether or not I'm in dead punch effect my shot selection? Of course! I'm a believer in playing the percentages, and how well I'm shooting can have a drastic effect on what the percentages are at this particular moment.

There are shots where I might be 90% to make them one night and 50% to make them another, because sometimes I have my A game and sometimes I don't. On a 50% night I'm probably looking for a safety.

-Andrew

 

[HawaiianEye]

I agree with this completely, and I think it's an overlooked aspect of considering the relative ease of an offensive and defensive shot: you have to compare making the offensive shot vs. making the next offensive shot after playing safe, not just executing one safety.



And this says it all, and is so huge I can't believe more people aren't mentioning it.

Q: How did I get up 6-1? A: I'M IN STROKE. Does whether or not I'm in dead punch effect my shot selection? Of course! I'm a believer in playing the percentages, and how well I'm shooting can have a drastic effect on what the percentages are at this particular moment.

There are shots where I might be 90% to make them one night and 50% to make them another, because sometimes I have my A game and sometimes I don't. On a 50% night I'm probably looking for a safety.

-Andrew

This is EVERYBODY! From the banger to the BEST in the world. On SOME days you play better than others. I KNOW what the BEST thing to do is BEFORE I attempt to do it. Whether I ACCOMPLISH it is another story.

On days when I'm struggling to catch a gear, I play whatever shot I can accomplish with the HIGHEST degree of accuracy for that PARTICULAR shot. As my confidence rises, hopefully my stroke will do the same.

I've learned many years ago that if you go into something thinking you CAN'T do it, the odds are you probably are RIGHT! Not because you CAN'T do it, but because the NEGATIVE thought in your mind OVERRODE your training and ability to accomplish it.

On the OTHER hand, if you don't have the training or ablity to accomplish the task, NO amount of THINKING is going to put the ball in the hole, with the exception of LUCK and help from the pool Gods.

If I have made the same exact shot 1,000 times in practice, I KNOW I have the TRAINING and ABILITY to DO IT! Whether I do it today in a match is 90% in my head.

As the old line in the "Cool Hand Luke" movie with Paul Newman goes, "You ain't gonna need no third set, 'cause you gonna get your mind right."

 

[Matt]

I don't think that the match score directly influences my shot selection, but it is an indicator of other things that might.

Trying to accurately put a percentage on how likely you are to win a rack based on the choice of one particular shot is an incredibly hard thing to do, so it's always just a guess. Even if you disregard momentum, whether you or your opponent is "in stroke", hungry (metaphorically or physically), tired, etc., it's still just a guess. I think you are missing an opportunity to improve that guess if you only take into account the position of the balls on the table and what your average (or worse yet, optimal) skill level dictates.

As you get further into a match, you should have a better feel for how both you and your opponent are playing, at least relative to each other. If someone has a big lead, their confidence is probably higher but very susceptible to change if their opponent begins to come back. A player on the hill with a big lead might even let up a bit thinking that their win is inevitable. I can think of several other examples, but you get the idea.

My point is that the "right" shot for a particular situation may vary based on circumstances. That's why so many of the "what would you do" threads receive a variety of answers, sometimes even in the same response. While I don't think that the match score dictates a particular shot, it can't be ignored entirely because it may be an indicator of what the best play is at that moment.

 

[Old Nine Baller]

But would you agree that the best defense is winning the game without giving your opponent another turn? You know, best defense is good offense?This is non-responsive to the question at hand.

With a big lead, one can attempt to close it out with reduced risk of an error that might cost him the set.

Not even going to talk about the alleged requirement that one bet money to learn to play pool well...I didn't say this, reread my post.

BB,

The question is very simple yet nobody here seems to grasp it. Do you let set score affect shot choice? That's the question.

The question has nothing to do with feeling "good" and "confident" and therefore shooting a different shot. I've felt good & confident & in stroke many times while getting my brains shot in but I still shot the shot that gave me the best chance to win that particular game.

People in this thread talking about safeties vs. shooting or offense vs. defense are clouding the main question and are helping nobody.

ONB

 

[Old Nine Baller]

Hard shot, easy safe, take the safe. Hard shot, hard safe, shoot the shot. No matter what the score.

Unless you include psychological factors, this is the wrong strategy.

As mentioned by SJM above, at nine ball each rack is a race to one and you should do your very best to win each rack. Your ability to win the next rack is not affected by what happens in the current rack unless you consider the small effect of the break (if you are playing winner breaks).

If you pass up an 89% shot, you better be a 90% favorite to have the next open shot after the safety exchange. If you are only 80% to win the safety battle, you wasted an opportunity.

You guys are confusing this thread terribly. Nobody asked about when to shoot or play safe.

The question is do you let set score affect your shot choice? That's the question and it's the only question.

ONB

 

[BasementDweller]

You guys are confusing this thread terribly. Nobody asked about when to shoot or play safe.

The question is do you let set score affect your shot choice? That's the question and it's the only question.

ONB

I don't think they are confusing the thread terribly.

onepocketron was just keeping it simple here and in the process agreeing with you:

Hard shot, easy safe, take the safe. Hard shot, hard safe, shoot the shot. No matter what the score.

Likewise, Bob was pointing out that in each rack of 9-ball it's essentially a race to 1. Again, agreeing with you.

Unless you include psychological factors, this is the wrong strategy.

As mentioned by SJM above, at nine ball each rack is a race to one and you should do your very best to win each rack. Your ability to win the next rack is not affected by what happens in the current rack unless you consider the small effect of the break (if you are playing winner breaks).

If you pass up an 89% shot, you better be a 90% favorite to have the next open shot after the safety exchange. If you are only 80% to win the safety battle, you wasted an opportunity.

When you break the game down -- every shot you either play safe or shoot. Unless I'm reading them wrong they are implying that this play safe or shoot decision shouldn't change based on the score.

I pretty much agree with them.

It's not against the forum rules to let a thread breathe a little.

 

[Andrew Manning]

BB,

The question is very simple yet nobody here seems to grasp it. Do you let set score affect shot choice? That's the question.

With a big lead, one can attempt to close it out with reduced risk of an error that might cost him the set.

ONB, he's saying that when you're up 6-1, a runout (perhaps including a lower-percentage shot or two) can win you the set but one miss probably can't lose it. He's saying this can tip the risk-reward evaluation in favor of offense.

Having defended BB from your accusations of misunderstanding your question (which he did not), I disagree with his point. Playing a smart safety and seeing my opponent pull off something impressive and take the rack isn't going to get me thinking dark thoughts.

On the other hand, going for a shot that I know isn't the percentage play, selling out, and having to sit there watching my opponent run balls while I think about why I shouldn't have shot that shot, could be the first step of an epic meltdown where I lose this rack and the next 5 in a row. Playing the smart shot will keep me feeling positive, and give me the best chance to close the match out when my next opportunity comes, whether it's this rack (which it hopefully would be if I did indeed play the smart shot) or a later one.

-Andrew

 

[buckshotshoey]

You guys are confusing this thread terribly. Nobody asked about when to shoot or play safe.

The question is do you let set score affect your shot choice? That's the question and it's the only question.

ONB

The answer is no. Score is irrelevant. If playing safe and going for ball in hand will make your run out easy, then that is the right shot....no matter what the score or situation. If the
safe is tough to accomplish, then go for the shot. That is the point of this thread. When you say shot choice, there is only 2 choices when playing pool, offense or defense. Shooting or playing safe is the point of the thread.