How much luck is in pool?

[Slh]

I just watched this interview with Pagulayan and at the question "which is harder pool or poker" Alex responded that are the same because in both game you need skill and luck. This reply can lead a non pool person to think that in pool luck plays the same big factor as in poker ( which I think is clearly bs.). Now, do you really think luck play such a big factor in pool? I'm also interested in a distinction between 9ball/10ball, straight pool and one pocket.
Bye.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFYjH0xMw70 (1:25)

 

[Cdryden]

I just watched this interview with Pagulayan and at the question "which is harder pool or poker" Alex responded that are the same because in both game you need skill and luck. This reply can lead a non pool person to think that in pool luck plays the same big factor as in poker ( which I think is clearly bs.). Now, do you really think luck play such a big factor in pool? I'm also interested in a distinction between 9ball/10ball, straight pool and one pocket.
Bye.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFYjH0xMw70 (1:25)

I would have to disagree. I have seen armatures win the world series of poker. I have never seen a amateur win the us 9 ball open or other such event.

 

[the420trooper]

Between two players of equal skill, luck usually determines the winner.

 

[the420trooper]

I would have to disagree. I have seen armatures win the world series of poker. I have never seen a amateur win the us 9 ball open or other such event.

Tom Kennedy, Gabe Owen, John Schmidt, Reed Pierce.

Definitely not amateurs, but not exactly world class 9 ballers either. I bet all those guys will tell you that they caught a few good rolls to get there.

 

[Cdryden]

Tom Kennedy, Gabe Owen, John Schmidt, Reed Pierce.

Definitely not amateurs, but not exactly world class 9 ballers either. I bet all those guys will tell you that they caught a few good rolls to get there.

True enough but not amateurs. Luck plays a part no doubt. Not only in matches but in the bracket as well. If the top players are knocking each other out that can help a less skilled player advance further than usual.

But, I think skill plays a larger part than luck at being successful in pool.

 

[brophog]

If you're going to use the word 'amateur' then you must define it.

 

[cueandcushion]

I think luck plays a part more in the rules being played. I remember when shots all had to be called. In short races, luck can play a bigger role in the outcome. Eliminating combo shots or ball in hand and calling every pocket reduces the times that a 3 beats a 9 in a match. People forget the good rolls they receive and obsess over the bad rolls that "cost them the match". Rolls go both ways in the long run.

 

[the420trooper]

True enough but not amateurs. Luck plays a part no doubt. Not only in matches but in the bracket as well. If the top players are knocking each other out that can help a less skilled player advance further than usual.

But, I think skill plays a larger part than luck at being successful in pool.

Well, that's pretty tough to argue.

 

[Okie]

I just watched this interview with Pagulayan and at the question "which is harder pool or poker" Alex responded that are the same because in both game you need skill and luck. This reply can lead a non pool person to think that in pool luck plays the same big factor as in poker ( which I think is clearly bs.). Now, do you really think luck play such a big factor in pool? I'm also interested in a distinction between 9ball/10ball, straight pool and one pocket.
Bye.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFYjH0xMw70 (1:25)

I know this will sound like a joke but it isn't. It depends if you are winning or losing. Typically, the guy in his chair sees a lot more lucky shots than the one executing them at the table. Perception not reality of course.

My opinion is that the factor of luck in tournament poker far out weighs the factor of luck in a pool tournament. Now if you're tracking poker or pool long term results...luck is meaningless in both.

 

[ShootingArts]

Poker vs Pool

Unlike pool poker can readily be modeled. Over the course of a lifetime career luck affects a poker player's income less than two percent. The number is actually about 1.5%. So the question becomes is pool more or less than 1.5% luck?

I dodged poker and played pool for many years because while I knew that skill was involved I thought the luck factor was too large in poker. I now suspect that long term there is probably considerably more luck in pool than poker if we consider people at an "A" or low pro level or above.

Short term luck has a far larger effect playing poker than pool. Long term purely based on experience since pool can't be readily modeled, I'd say that there is more luck in pool which was a very surprising conclusion for me!

Hu

 

[Cdryden]

If you're going to use the word 'amateur' then you must define it.

Well, this will probably open a can of worms. I would think that most on here would understand what is meant by amateur in relation to pool skill. I consider a pro to be a person who is at an elite level of play. A person who has a firm grip on the skills and knowledge (and can execute) required to compete at the highest level.

An amateur would be a person of lesser skill that hasn't been able to successfully compete on the highest level.

In pool I consider the us open to be one of the highest level tournaments. In poker I consider the world series of poker to be one of the highest level events.
Obviously you need a little of both skill and luck to rise to the top, but I think it has been proven that in poker, the less skilled amateurs have a decent chance at beating anyone at the table repeatably.

Not so much in pool. Do you really think and accountant with no real professional instruction or major tournament wins or serious experience is going to win the 9 ball open?

Sure it's possible but so is the Cubs winning the world series this year.

Is it likely? NO.

Sorry Cubs fans.......i hope you know I'm just kidding :smile:

 

[inside_english]

I just watched this interview with Pagulayan and at the question "which is harder pool or poker" Alex responded that are the same because in both game you need skill and luck. This reply can lead a non pool person to think that in pool luck plays the same big factor as in poker ( which I think is clearly bs.). Now, do you really think luck play such a big factor in pool? I'm also interested in a distinction between 9ball/10ball, straight pool and one pocket.
Bye.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFYjH0xMw70 (1:25)

I think the word "luck" is misused in pool. It is an easy scapegoat for those who were on the receiving end of good or bad rolls, but I don't think luck plays a part.

I think luck is used to identify those many instances where the outcome of the shot was unknown to either or both players.

Case in point, CaliRed posted a video clip of Danny Harriman running balls in straight pool, at the end of which Danny had a horrible scratch. The CB caromed off two objects balls to scratch in the top right pocket (assuming you're standing at the foot of the table). It is very easy to say "that was bad luck"...or "that was a bad roll"...but the fact remains Danny played the shot that made it happen...he just did not, or could not foresee the outcome.

I don't imagine the word "luck" would not be used in poolrooms anytime soon...this is just an observation. I have also been in positions where I have fretted because my opponent repeatedly leaves me "lucky safeties"...or as some might suggest...he missed well!

I won a tournament last week and the 2nd place finisher was quite irate because I not only left him safe (unintentionally), but when he missed he left me out. We have all been there, many times. It seems totally unfair, but if I predicted and announced what would have happened had I missed, would it still be luck?

It is just an indication that we did not know the outcome of the shot...hence the "lucky SOB" excuse comes into play...

 

[Cdryden]

Unlike pool poker can readily be modeled. Over the course of a lifetime career luck affects a poker player's income less than two percent. The number is actually about 1.5%. So the question becomes is pool more or less than 1.5% luck?

I dodged poker and played pool for many years because while I knew that skill was involved I thought the luck factor was too large in poker. I now suspect that long term there is probably considerably more luck in pool than poker if we consider people at an "A" or low pro level or above.

Short term luck has a far larger effect playing poker than pool. Long term purely based on experience since pool can't be readily modeled, I'd say that there is more luck in pool which was a very surprising conclusion for me!

Hu

Excellent point, when you look at the long run. I also think that in the long run skill wins over luck in both games. Earl, Buddy and Efren didn't get where they are by being lucky all the time.

I still think you can take a person with poor skill on both games. Put him against the best in each category. Play for 1 hour. I think his odds of being successful in the poker match would out weigh his odds of being successful at the pool match.

I would bet he could win 30% of the hands or better at poker. I doubt he would win 10% of the games at pool. Make sense?

 

[TheThaiger]

Luck plays a huge role in 9 ball, less so in 10 ball.

 

[the420trooper]

Unlike pool poker can readily be modeled. Over the course of a lifetime career luck affects a poker player's income less than two percent. The number is actually about 1.5%. So the question becomes is pool more or less than 1.5% luck?

I dodged poker and played pool for many years because while I knew that skill was involved I thought the luck factor was too large in poker. I now suspect that long term there is probably considerably more luck in pool than poker if we consider people at an "A" or low pro level or above.

Short term luck has a far larger effect playing poker than pool. Long term purely based on experience since pool can't be readily modeled, I'd say that there is more luck in pool which was a very surprising conclusion for me!

Hu

Little story about luck:

Dennis Hatch and Buddy Hall were playing the final match of the US Open 9 Ball event in 1991. Buddy got to the hill first, Dennis caught him a couple games later. Both guys were playing fantastic pool.

Dennis broke for the match and hung up a ball in the corner pocket, leaving a runout so easy my mom could have gotten out. Buddy actually shook his head and laughed as he approached the table and tapped in the ducks.

Ask Dennis how much luck there is in pool. One ball that hit the point on one break shot leaves him unable to call himself US Open champ, and that's gotta SUCK.

 

[the420trooper]

I think the word "luck" is misused in pool. It is an easy scapegoat for those who were on the receiving end of good or bad rolls, but I don't think luck plays a part.

I think luck is used to identify those many instances where the outcome of the shot was unknown to either or both players.

Case in point, CaliRed posted a video clip of Danny Harriman running balls in straight pool, at the end of which Danny had a horrible scratch. The CB caromed off two objects balls to scratch in the top right pocket (assuming you're standing at the foot of the table). It is very easy to say "that was bad luck"...or "that was a bad roll"...but the fact remains Danny played the shot that made it happen...he just did not, or could not foresee the outcome.

I don't imagine the word "luck" would not be used in poolrooms anytime soon...this is just an observation. I have also been in positions where I have fretted because my opponent repeatedly leaves me "lucky safeties"...or as some might suggest...he missed well!

I won a tournament last week and the 2nd place finisher was quite irate because I not only left him safe (unintentionally), but when he missed he left me out. We have all been there, many times. It seems totally unfair, but if I predicted and announced what would have happened had I missed, would it still be luck?

It is just an indication that we did not know the outcome of the shot...hence the "lucky SOB" excuse comes into play...

But when you get a favorable outcome that you didn't foresee, isn't that luck?

 

[Slh]

Little story about luck:

Dennis Hatch and Buddy Hall were playing the final match of the US Open 9 Ball event in 1991. Buddy got to the hill first, Dennis caught him a couple games later. Both guys were playing fantastic pool.

Dennis broke for the match and hung up a ball in the corner pocket, leaving a runout so easy my mom could have gotten out. Buddy actually shook his head and laughed as he approached the table and tapped in the ducks.

Ask Dennis how much luck there is in pool. One ball that hit the point on one break shot leaves him unable to call himself US Open champ, and that's gotta SUCK.

ok, what about straight pool? Or one pocket?

 

[ShootingArts]

makes sense but wrong

Excellent point, when you look at the long run. I also think that in the long run skill wins over luck in both games. Earl, Buddy and Efren didn't get where they are by being lucky all the time.

I still think you can take a person with poor skill on both games. Put him against the best in each category. Play for 1 hour. I think his odds of being successful in the poker match would out weigh his odds of being successful at the pool match.

I would bet he could win 30% of the hands or better at poker. I doubt he would win 10% of the games at pool. Make sense?

What you say makes sense but it also assumes that the random fall of cards and luck have a far larger importance than they do. Unless you impose a very low limit where you are no longer playing poker the best pool player will crush the person with poor skill in a very few hands. To run your scenario 20 times with forty different players you would find that the chances of a person with poor skills beating a top poker player is basically zero if they are playing with reasonably deep stacks. Moneymaker started the boom with a miracle win but he wasn't without some skills. Too, how often do you see people without skills winning events? Much harder to judge poker players because they can be highly skilled unknowns before stepping on a big stage. Pool is harder to remain hidden in now although I have the opinion it is still possible, especially for a barbox eightball specialist.

The truth is that skill is such a factor in both pool and poker that putting a top player against a beginning or poor player means they will be crushed. Kinda interesting, the intermediate levels are where skill plays a larger factor in poker than pool. A slightly better pool player is more likely to lose than a slightly better poker player. In internet no limit holdem the typical person that plays 1/2 no limit is hopelessly outclassed if he tries to jump to 5/10.

After studying poker pretty seriously for a year and a half or so I have to say that poker is at least as involved to learn as pool. The difference is many people think they have learned how to play poker in a few hours or a few weeks. Like pool, a very short time to learn how to play, a lifetime to master if you are lucky.

Hu

 

[the420trooper]

ok, what about straight pool? Or one pocket?

Luck is obviously not as big a factor in those games as in 9 ball, but it is still there.

When you stick yourself to the stack but find a dead ball wired directly toward the corner, and you fire it in and run 50 more....is it lucky if that dead ball was the only shot you had?

 

[Matt]

I agree that the amount of luck varies a lot depending on the game and the rules being used. I think that what we consider "luck" has a lot to do with the caliber of players you are talking about.

As someone already mentioned, "getting a good/bad roll" is a product of uncertainty. If you are talking about a player that is clueless about position play, they spend the entire game getting good rolls and bad rolls. They are essentially at the mercy of the table with almost every shot, and whether they have a good shot next or hook themselves (or their opponent, if they miss) is always a surprise. For players that struggle to make even simple shots, "getting a roll" is the difference between them hitting center pocket and missing by an entire diamond. There is a lot of luck involved at this level, at it can be really frustrating for a good player to play against when that luck is against them and they have to deal with giving up weight and dealing with slopped in balls, accidental position from balls scattering at random, and being unintentionally hooked every time they come to the table.

When good players talk about getting a roll, it is with respect to their expected margin of error. Small changes in the angle the cue ball caroms off the object ball, variations in the table or rails, balls skidding, a 3 rail kick going in instead of rattling...all of these can drastically change the results of a match. Whether it changes who wins and loses depends on how close those players are playing.

One bit of luck that does apply at pretty much any level is the break, and I would say that it has more of an impact on run-out players than less skilled players since the breaks really can decide the outcome of a match in a game like 9-ball. The luck involved in an open break is intentionally a big part of some games (9-ball, 8-ball, and to some extent, 10 ball), but not others (1-pocket, straight pool).