I can spot the guy the 6 and the last 4 playing 9-Ball, but this was 8-Ball on a bar table......of course in a race to 4, then a race to 3 anyone could possibly win....I can beat Shane, Johnny, or Earl a race to 4/alternate break at least 40% of the time.
I'd say I was a 70/30 favorite to win both races.....but no one can know for sure of course.
I don't think you are accurate in your assumption : it's barbox 8-ball short race as you mentioned, who care if you can spot him the 6 and the last 4 on the 9-foot if he ran tables on barbox 8-ball (I guess so because he's there in the final). And you u say he got lucky and you were unlucky, I'm sorry but everybody know that even it's race to 4, it's incredibly hard to beat an overwhelming player, so the overall level of that tourney must be good, you were still the big favorite no doubt but not by a 100 miles :wink:.
SO, to say that you have 70/30 chance to beat him, I don't think so. It's like Shane says he has 70/30 chance to beat you on BOTH race to 4 and 3, I'll take your side without any hesitation, hence Shane can spot you the 6 or 7 I guess ? ( another assumption, based on what he gave Corey ).
So the odd is not correct, and even it's close, let's go to a little of odds calculation, 70/30 = 70%, you need to win twice so that will be 49%, not a good odd either, you knew it best when you said yes.
Back to the main question, many factors involved to decide if you want to split or not. Me personally sometimes I split sometimes not.
I split when :
- I like the guy :smile:
- I don't want to bear the feeling of being double-dipped

- Someone's waiting for me to gamble and I like that game :wink:
.....
And not when :
- I hate the guy lol :grin:
- Lose the 1st set and want to test my nerve, sometimes I refuse to split after the 1st set because I want to know it I can get over it. That's a good feeling even if I lose

.....