In the finals of the 2015 US Open 8-Ball Championship (won 11-9 by Orcollo), neither player had a second inning in any of the 20 games. 15 of the 20 games were won by the player at the table after the break -- 11 on B&R's and 4 by the non-breaker following dry breaks. The breaker failed to run out 5 times after successful breaks (2 misses and 3 fouls), and the non-breaker ran out after each of those misses or fouls.
For all 17 streamed matches in that event, 87% (203 of 233) of the games ended in one inning -- 52% won by the breaker (B&R) and 36% won by the non-breaker. 75% (174 of 233) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break.
Orcollo's B&R percentage was 60% in the finals (6 of 10) and 50% (21 of 42) for all 6 of his matches that were shown on the stream. Dechaine appeared on stream in only 2 matches. He broke and ran 5 of 10 in the finals and 3 of 8 in his other streamed match.
As to dry breaks in the finals, Orcollo had 1 and Dechaine had 3.
Could you give the percentage of break and runs after a successful break where breaker made a ball and did not foul?
My contention is that the hardest part for the top pros in putting together a big package is making a ball and not scratching 20 times in a row. They get out on pretty much any layout when having the opening shot after the break as shown by 87% percent of games won.
What are the odds of someone who breaks and runs 50% of running 15 racks? 20 racks?