So what would you do?

doitforthegame

doitforthegame

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So you are at a regional tournament, like the Joss Tour. You have a couple of guys that have matched up and are playing for $1000. One player is a regional A type player. He has never won one of the tournaments, but he cashes regularly. The second player is a strong B. He plays in the regionals and cashes every once in awhile. They are both known to all who are watching. People are making side bets on the match. One guy wants the B player but wants 5/2 on the B. They are playing 10 ahead. Would you make that bet?
 
Decent info but not enough for me

doitforthegame said:
So you are at a regional tournament, like the Joss Tour. You have a couple of guys that have matched up and are playing for $1000. One player is a regional A type player. He has never won one of the tournaments, but he cashes regularly. The second player is a strong B. He plays in the regionals and cashes every once in awhile. They are both known to all who are watching. People are making side bets on the match. One guy wants the B player but wants 5/2 on the B. They are playing 10 ahead. Would you make that bet?
Click to expand...

I'm a fairly loose gambler in the poolroom but situations like this can be a little iffy. You HAVE to know there is no possibility of business here because that's what it sounds like go me. A true A player should never lose a 10AHEAD to a true B player. So having said that if there's no business the send it in, you e got the nuts.
 
Hello....people....you are not helping me here......so would you give the guy 5/2? Or maybe 3/2? Would you be suspicious of something funny? Come...looking for input from you very knowledgeable players. :wink:

Bob
 
Do these two players know each other?.........they probably do if the both play in regional tournaments together. Do they know what kind of bet you are placing and how much? Do you know these two players?
 
Yes, they know each other. Actually everybody in attendance either knows each other or knows of each other. Even played against one another in tournaments and matching up now and again. So, you think you are getting trapped by putting up 5/2? You think that an alarm should go off here? What about 3/2?I'm thinking that is more realistic.
 
doitforthegame said:
Yes, they know each other. Actually everybody in attendance either knows each other or knows of each other. Even played against one another in tournaments and matching up now and again. So, you think you are getting trapped by putting up 5/2? You think that an alarm should go off here? What about 3/2?I'm thinking that is more realistic.
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As per my original reply. The specific odds on the money do not matter as much as your faith in the fact that the game is on the square. Your initial post made me suspicious and therefore I would guess it isn't(with the small amount of info I have). If said game IS on the square then give up any amount of odds and you'll be fine because no TRUE B player will ever beat a TRUE A player a 10 ahead under any circumstances.
 
You guys are helping me with something I am working on. So, let's drop it to a race to 11. It would seem that 3/2 would be ok. Is 5/2 still too much?
 
A race vs. ahead makes all the difference, now the B can win.

If you know the players then ask yourself how many times the B player would take this set
if they played it 10 times.

2 out of 10? That's 2 wins, 8 losses. Reduces to 1/4. So 4:1 means you break even.
4 out of 10? That's 4 wins, 6 losses. Reduces to 2/3. So 3:2 means you break even.

The math is pretty simple. You already know 5:2 is no good.
So it just comes down to... does the B win 1 set, 2 sets, or 3 sets?

1 set seems pessimistic, I'd think that a solid B can get 2 sets out of 10.
Therefore you need better than 4:1 on the money if you want to bet on the B player.
 
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CreeDo said:
A race vs. ahead makes all the difference, now the B can win.

If you know the players then ask yourself how many times the B player would take this set
if they played it 10 times.

2 out of 10? Then 5:1 means you break even.
4 out of 10? Then 5:2 means you break even.

The math is pretty simple. You already know 5:2 is no good.
So it just comes down to... does the B win 1 set, 2 sets, or 3 sets?

1 set seems pessimistic, I'd think that a solid B can get 2 sets out of 10.
Therefore you need better than 5:1 on the money if you want to bet on the B player.
Click to expand...

Nice way to sum it up!
 
Yes-- they are playing even.

And Creedo, I'm thinking you are either a card player or a horse guy. Thank you for that input.
 
Jesse gave you the correct answers on a 10 ahead. Playing a race would change everything. If one is a strong B player and the other a weak A player, any odds would seem strong to me in a race.
 
CreeDo said:
A race vs. ahead makes all the difference, now the B can win.

If you know the players then ask yourself how many times the B player would take this set
if they played it 10 times.

2 out of 10? Then 5:1 means you break even.
4 out of 10? Then 5:2 means you break even.

The math is pretty simple. You already know 5:2 is no good.
So it just comes down to... does the B win 1 set, 2 sets, or 3 sets?

1 set seems pessimistic, I'd think that a solid B can get 2 sets out of 10.
Therefore you need better than 5:1 on the money if you want to bet on the B player.
Click to expand...


Not to nitpick on, but this is bad math. It is sound reasoning however. :thumbup:

2 out of 10 = B player 2, A player 8. = 4:1

4 out of 10 is 4 to 6. = 3:2
 
In a race to 11, giving 3:2 would be pretty risky. If I had to give better than even money, I don't know if I'd make the bet. Races like that can go either way depending on the smallest of factors.

As said before, in a 10 ahead set (played on the level), the A player should win every time. I'd give 5:2 without batting an eye... but only if the players like me more than they like the guy who is placing the bet :wink:
 
KoolKat9Lives said:
Not to nitpick on, but this is bad math. It is sound reasoning however. :thumbup:

2 out of 10 = B player 2, A player 8. = 4:1

4 out of 10 is 4 to 6. = 3:2
Click to expand...

Oops, you're right, I was doing wins/total instead of wins/losses.
What an airhead. Gonna fix my post.
 
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