Isn't it true that a tourney winner will play well in the event?
Dumping and dogging look similar, so do winning and coming off the stall.
Yes, this is true
As an example, look at Damian, who won the elite. He is a well established 710. But in winning the event he played at 780 speed for 62 games.
If it was an unestablished 610 in another division who played at 680 speed for 62 games, people would say "Ahah!"
Selecting a person for evaluation based on being the tournament winner is a milder version of selecting yesterday's winning lotto number and then marveling about ho unlikely it was that it won.