It was obviously as you said, the best shot for Efren at the moment! I take anything that Efren says in an interview after a win with a huge pinch of salt so I'll stick to what he did.
Several weeks ago I noticed I had let something sneak into my game. When a ball was really tough to hit, I focused on getting a good hit. And then what? Well, then nothing. I wasn't considering doing anything but getting a good hit. Which brings us back to Efren's shot and Dave's alternatives. There is a chance I would try the one rail and bend the ball, a lot depending on the exact placement of balls and how much interference there was. I would probably be more likely to go down to the near end rail and go for the shot up and down the table. With that small angle if a person doesn't add unintentional side spin I think the odds of hitting the five are quite good. Unless it is a table you know very well like Dave's own table, you probably need to hit the ball medium speed, which gives about equal chances of a safety and selling out somewhere so after my efforts my odds of making a good hit on a strange table might be around fifty-fifty. Selling out after making that good hit are around fifty percent again so that back rail that is kinda tempting probably sells out about seventy-five percent of the time!
The other shots carry the same risks, most have a fairly high chance of selling out even if you get a good hit. This particular shot was made under the TV lights so you are essentially playing on a heated table too, something that makes perfect touch a little harder! Efren's shot didn't have a much higher risk of missing the object ball than other options, lets assume for him 65% of a sell out with other choices, 75% with the choice he took. Now we get a look at the second set of odds, chances of pocketing the ball and staying at the table or at least playing safe.
I didn't watch the longer videos to be sure but in Dave's cuts I never heard the five ball declared frozen, never saw a ref look, so it wasn't. An important consideration, if Efren hit the five and moved it at all it would have to be called a legal shot. Equally importantly, of all of the options considered, Efren's has the best chance of pocketing the five. Every shot offered a pretty high chance of selling out either by not hitting the five or giving your opponent a shot on the five and an easy out. Efren's shot was by far the best aggressive shot, ignoring the jump which he rarely tries. I don't think he could have gotten over the six. Not that hard for someone that jumps a lot, for somebody that doesn't, that six is a big obstacle.
So, given hours for Dave to play with possibilities and myself the better part of an hour to work with probabilities, I think Efren took the best shot not just for himself but for anyone playing near his level, the top couple dozen in the world. Odds are I would have sold out, I stink at Z banking and would probably never have considered what he did. However, had I seen the shot, it would have been the best shot for me too, for most of us. Granted I guesstimated percentages but it comes down to if the safety and pocketing a ball are equally hard, try to pocket the ball. That five by the rail was very big the way Efren shot, also a consideration. He took a shot that minimized giving up ball in hand and maximized his chances of pocketing the five even if they were probably well under 50-50.
As it seems like always, Efren maximized his chances for good things to happen, from a legal hit to pocketing a ball. He gave himself a chance to win, other options made not turning over the table extremely remote.
Hu