GideonF said:

Well, at least when combined with how far the blocking ball was (mid table). If the blocking ball was a diamond closer to the CB, he has much more room the get the CB down and rolling smoothly before it hits the 7.

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A jump safety would have definitely been a good choice if the 9 was much closer to the CB.

I tried some jumps during filming; but it wasn't a viable option (with the 9 where it was), so I didn't include it.

sjm said:

Exactly. The review of interesting choices that arose in big matches is nearly always productive. I'm not sure we need to determine whether one of the top few 9ball players that ever lived made the right choice here, for ultimately that's not what's important. Contrastingly, reviewing the positive and negative attributes of the two available choices is time very well spent and is useful in developing one's process in the analysis of positions and strategic design of shots.

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Again, well stated. I certainly learn a lot when I do "deep dive" videos like this.

GideonF said:

... the cloth seemed *extra* slippery at the Reyes Cup and maybe he just underestimated it.

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Based on his shot going so long, he definitely did not account enough for the slick-cloth effect, as demonstrated in the video.

HawaiianEye said:

The shot you feel most confident in and comfortable with is the right shot, whether you make it or not.

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Agreed. Just because you miss a shot doesn't mean you mad the wrong choice.

Based on the amount of time Filler took to decide, there obviously wasn't a lot of "comfort" on this one.

I have a 30'' Danny Green 6 point, radial joint. Has a brand new black shark skin leather wrap though
Pic on this post: https://forums.azbilliards.com/threads/danny-green-30-butt-radial-pin.590818/

sjm said:

Nice video.

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Thanks, Stu. This one took a lot of work and time.

sjm said:

It's a close choice for sure.

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Agreed. As I mentioned in the video, the fact that Filler took so long to decide was proof of this.

sjm said:

Respectfully, I disagree with one aspect of your analysis. Some of the results that you deem acceptable off the slowish one rail kick may not leave a good shot but leave a two-way bank shot. To me, one part of the gospel of tactical play is to avoid leaving two-way shots of any kind at all costs. Leaving one, to me, is, practically selling out.

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Good point. This was the case for many of the 3-rail kicks also. But leaving an opponent a two-way bank or safety attempt is better than BIH (from either a miss or scratch with the 3-rail kick, as demonstrated in the video), or a bad leave (which was very possible over a wide range of hits at the shot speed Filler used). Regardless, it was a tough decisions, and there was no clear "best shot."

sjm said:

Still, most of your analysis is dead on. If I'm going one rail here, I'm never going soft. My intent would be to send the 7ball to the top rail if at all possible. It requires neither a soft nor hard hit, just a medium speed hit. Going three is reasonable, increasing the risk/reward nature of the shot.

Hence, I think it's a very close choice between a medium speed one railer and the three railer with intention to pocket the ball. We don't know whether this type of three-rail kick is something Josh practices, so we can't be certain of what the right play here was for him.

Josh' choice was reasonable, but there are arguments for the one-railer. I do not believe that the score was a factor in Josh' choice. As Nick Varner once said: "every rack is a race to one." Josh surely felt that the three-railer was his best path to winning that rack.

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As always, very well stated.

Thanks again for your always-inciteful (and helpful) posts.

See my version of playing the ghost here, and more discussion at: https://forums.azbilliards.com/threads/variations-on-playing-the-ghost.590833/

My version trains the break as well as the run. I have given it the name "modified pro". Here is my version:

1. Breaking, if one makes a ball, no ball in hand. A true break and run attempt begins when one or more balls are made on the break, with the cue ball not moving from the spot where rests after the break shot where one or more ball is made. If one successfully completes a break and run, 2 points for the shooter. If after one breaks and makes a ball, if one is stuck behind balls or there are clusters on the table, there is no ball in hand, in that way, no mercy. In my version, one would need to learn how to execute a good break, make a ball, get a good spread, and get a good shot on the next ball in sequence. If after the break and a ball is made a cluster exists, one is jumping or kicking.
2. Breaking, if one does not make a ball, one can take ball in hand. If one runs out all 9 balls, one gets 1 point.
3. No early nines. If a nine is intentionally made, it is spotted at the foot spot, but spotting the 9 should not in itself create a cluster. If one or more balls is already located at the foot spot, the 9 is spotted at the first place below them to give the player a neutral chance of making the run work. Not easy, not overly difficult positioning of the 9 below the ball(s) that are already on the foot spot.
4. No slop. A ball must be made intentionally to keep shooting. If a ball is made intentionally and legally, and a second ball slops in, that is fine, the second slopped ball can stay down. However, if after the break the first ball is blocked by one or more obstructing balls, slop is allowed when kicking or jumping at the first object ball in sequence.
5. A scratch on the break is 2 points for the ghost.
6. Any miss during a run, whether a true break and run attempt or a ball in hand 9 ball run attempt, is one point for the ghost and the game is over.

My version is for people who are inclined to put in work to earn something. Its also designed for people that want to better be able to "run a table". Progress can equal achievement. If one gets 1 point this week, then one can say "what do I need to work on to do better". Then a month later, or whenever later, one can get 3, then 5, then even beat this ghost.