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Filler’s 3-Rail Kick in the Reyes Cup … Was it the Right Choice?

dr_dave
GideonF said:
Well, at least when combined with how far the blocking ball was (mid table). If the blocking ball was a diamond closer to the CB, he has much more room the get the CB down and rolling smoothly before it hits the 7.
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A jump safety would have definitely been a good choice if the 9 was much closer to the CB.

I tried some jumps during filming; but it wasn't a viable option (with the 9 where it was), so I didn't include it.
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Filler’s 3-Rail Kick in the Reyes Cup … Was it the Right Choice?

dr_dave
sjm said:
Exactly. The review of interesting choices that arose in big matches is nearly always productive. I'm not sure we need to determine whether one of the top few 9ball players that ever lived made the right choice here, for ultimately that's not what's important. Contrastingly, reviewing the positive and negative attributes of the two available choices is time very well spent and is useful in developing one's process in the analysis of positions and strategic design of shots.
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Again, well stated. I certainly learn a lot when I do "deep dive" videos like this.
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Filler’s 3-Rail Kick in the Reyes Cup … Was it the Right Choice?

dr_dave
HawaiianEye said:
The shot you feel most confident in and comfortable with is the right shot, whether you make it or not.
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Agreed. Just because you miss a shot doesn't mean you mad the wrong choice.

Based on the amount of time Filler took to decide, there obviously wasn't a lot of "comfort" on this one.
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Filler’s 3-Rail Kick in the Reyes Cup … Was it the Right Choice?

dr_dave
sjm said:
Nice video.
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Thanks, Stu. This one took a lot of work and time.

sjm said:
It's a close choice for sure.
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Agreed. As I mentioned in the video, the fact that Filler took so long to decide was proof of this.

sjm said:
Respectfully, I disagree with one aspect of your analysis. Some of the results that you deem acceptable off the slowish one rail kick may not leave a good shot but leave a two-way bank shot. To me, one part of the gospel of tactical play is to avoid leaving two-way shots of any kind at all costs. Leaving one, to me, is, practically selling out.
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Good point. This was the case for many of the 3-rail kicks also. But leaving an opponent a two-way bank or safety attempt is better than BIH (from either a miss or scratch with the 3-rail kick, as demonstrated in the video), or a bad leave (which was very possible over a wide range of hits at the shot speed Filler used). Regardless, it was a tough decisions, and there was no clear "best shot."

sjm said:
Still, most of your analysis is dead on. If I'm going one rail here, I'm never going soft. My intent would be to send the 7ball to the top rail if at all possible. It requires neither a soft nor hard hit, just a medium speed hit. Going three is reasonable, increasing the risk/reward nature of the shot.

Hence, I think it's a very close choice between a medium speed one railer and the three railer with intention to pocket the ball. We don't know whether this type of three-rail kick is something Josh practices, so we can't be certain of what the right play here was for him.

Josh' choice was reasonable, but there are arguments for the one-railer. I do not believe that the score was a factor in Josh' choice. As Nick Varner once said: "every rack is a race to one." Josh surely felt that the three-railer was his best path to winning that rack.
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As always, very well stated.

Thanks again for your always-inciteful (and helpful) posts.
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