NEW NATIONAL RATING SYTEM - SVB vs. You
- Thread starter BasementDweller
- Start date
JC
Coos Cues
I think for what I want to bet Shane can back himself out of pocket change. However if you'd want to put up say 3:1 on the money being as how I am so overrating myself here - I'd be willing to bet another dime on myself.Fantasy-talk you know as we all know that this is never going to happen.......but if it should and you agree to bet it then I will hold you to it as you should me as well.
Make it happen and I'll give you two to one.
JC
now you have me thinking i might not get five.
John
No 30 for you son.
As much as I liked seeing CubC (thanks for that remembrance) tighten up (my money and my heart was with OMGWTF), it was painful in that "that could be me" way. And the way the shark OMGWTF smelled blood in the water and just ate him up is NOTHING compared to what Shane could do to you.
Look at the fact that as relatively easy as 9 ball as for pro level players, how is it that the cream almost always rises to the top? How is it that Shane almost always wins in matches where the skill level has to be so tight as to make it almost a coin toss? I mean in his 9 ball session with Efren there was a point where Efren HAD NOT MISSED A BALL, had maybe played one quasi-weak safety and Shane was still 6 games up on him. How do we (and you probably play better than me) fade THAT? You expose the weaknesses your game most certainly has to a player of his caliber and skill set and he will just completely run over you.
What I'm saying is
No 30 for you son.
Kevin
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It would probably work well, if each player received a $100 for each game they won. that would make it real for each player. all we need now is a sponcer
I hear you. Now I am getting really weak and about to commit suicide. I think I might end up in negative numbers if I played Shane. I am starting to wonder how in the world I ever ran a rack in my life under any kind of pressure ever.
Tell you what, I still have a little bit of heart and I will take a 10:1 bet and put up my life savings of 3,483,30cts and try Shane getting a 70 game spot going to one hundred. I understand all your logic and I make myself a 20:1 underdog and will be extremely lucky if I could get one game maybe if Shane trips and miscues on the ten or something. But dammit I have to try it and will take just a measly 10:1 on the money
So Shane is going to lap any of us iggie challengers repeatedly and we should pay $100 a game to watch him run out?How about Shane gets $30 a game and the amateur challenger gets $100? That should put some extra heat on it for Shane.
Somewhat along these lines I have had an idea for a Vegas game for a long time.
The idea would be a Challenge the Pro table with odds.
So the challenger would bet according to what handicap he wanted and get odds based on that.
Say the bet went from $1 to $100
The odds would look something like this -
Pro breaks and gets ball in hand after the break even on a foul - house bets 100-10
Pro breaks and gets ball in hand when no foul on break - house bets 100 -30
------- and so on .........
Amateur breaks gets ball in hand after break even on a foul - house bets 10 - $100
I have always thought that IF you could find a pro who would play this hard and try to win every game with no "business" then it would fun. I think it's probably best to play with product coupons or some form of monopoly money just to keep any temptation out of it.
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Put me down for 21. This may be the only time I end up ahead of nine_ball6970 in a pool-related competition.
-Blake
Well, to better address your statement above, the question is, how old are you, and how long have you been playing, because improvement don't come in leaps and bounds to you either, so the question is how much do you have to improve in order to take on such a challenge
Well, to better address your statement above, the question is, how old are you, and how long have you been playing, because improvement don't come in leaps and bounds to you either, so the question is how much do you have to improve in order to take on such a challenge
I already know that if I bear down I get better real quick. Or to put it another way I get loose and focused because I already know how to play.
I honestly don't think I have to improve my knowledge to play this game I simply have to improve my desire, focus and ability to play long sessions while maintaining that focus.
A couple years ago I did this and the results were that I immediately started booking more winners. But life takes precedence at this point and I have way more time to talk about playing pool than to actually play it.
I think a lot of people sell themselves short on what dedicated intense practice and focus brings. I mean if anything they should look at Shane and see the poster boy for deep practice and focus.
Honestly I suck right now. I feel embarrassed when I don't run out because I know I can. So the answer is I don't know how much I would need to improve to get to 30 games but I don't think it's nearly as much as some people seem to think it would be.
Some people here have seen me play pretty sporty and others have seen me dog my brains out. So who knows? I know that like I said if I had the opportunity to play it and knew in advance then I would train for it and try my best to not look totally helpless.
P.S. I forgot to add that by the time the game goes off I will have learned all Shane's secrets thanks to the Pool Shane's way series........bwhahhhahaha
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i'm stealing!!!!!!!
I posted a response to this and then I realized I didn't have any idea what I was talking about. If your numbers are accurate that's pretty tough action. I'm with you on the numbers. If I'm reading this right I think you would have to win more than 10 percent of his racks where he doesn't foul on the break.
My break is so bad. It would probably be advisable in a situation like this to just do a safe break and hope you can grind out 30-35 percent of your breaks. That would maybe get you close to 30 games....maybe.
Oh and I put you down for 19.
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Put me down for 21. This may be the only time I end up ahead of nine_ball6970 in a pool-related competition.
-Blake
Haha. We need to play some!
How much of a spot do I have to give him?
:grin:
:grin:
Here's a good way to figure it out. I know this does not take everything into account, but it's a rough estimate.
Let's say you're a decent player and can win 50% of your games with the ghost - ball in hand after the break. That means you are probably going to win about half of every time you get a chance with an open table against him assuming you have a shot.
We know Shane is going to break and run 40% to 50% of the time in 9 ball (he did that in 10 ball which is harder). So you will only have any chance at a shot in the roughly 50 to 60 games he doesn't break and run.
We can assume he will miss, make a positional error, or a safety mistake, about 1 time in every 20 balls pocketed, based on his typical 9.5 peformance rating.
So in the 50 to 60 games he doesn't B and R, you will have approximately 20 - 24 chances. If you can run out 50% of the time, and break and run 10% of the time, you will win about 13 or 14 games.
That's how strong Shane plays. I would estimate the average pro would have a hard time getting to 50 on him in 10 ball if his break is working. In 9 ball they have a better chance.
Let's say you're a decent player and can win 50% of your games with the ghost - ball in hand after the break. That means you are probably going to win about half of every time you get a chance with an open table against him assuming you have a shot.
We know Shane is going to break and run 40% to 50% of the time in 9 ball (he did that in 10 ball which is harder). So you will only have any chance at a shot in the roughly 50 to 60 games he doesn't break and run.
We can assume he will miss, make a positional error, or a safety mistake, about 1 time in every 20 balls pocketed, based on his typical 9.5 peformance rating.
So in the 50 to 60 games he doesn't B and R, you will have approximately 20 - 24 chances. If you can run out 50% of the time, and break and run 10% of the time, you will win about 13 or 14 games.
That's how strong Shane plays. I would estimate the average pro would have a hard time getting to 50 on him in 10 ball if his break is working. In 9 ball they have a better chance.
That was basically the thought process that got to me estimate that I would win ~19 if he scratched on 1 in 10 breaks, which is probably too high.
Please Unten me- I think 3 or 4 would be tops if he played like he did vs Dennis.
I know several months back Shane himself said he did not want to play Dennis "right now" so when he agreed to the match, I figured he was ready.
Tate,
I came to a similar conclusion, using Shane's stats from his match vs Orcullo. I used these stats:
http://www.pool-trax.net/Events/EventDetails.aspx?Sid=308
Based on the Pool Trax stats, Shane played 181 games, took 950 shots(offense only?) and missed 116 balls. Let's assume that of the 116 misses, you get left with a simple (five balls or less) runout, say, 1/3rd of the time. That equates to about 38 simple chances to runout. Then, let's assume that we only convert 2 out of 3 of our chances. Taht means you would end up with around 25 games, give or take.
This is assuming you will run out from the 5 ball(or less), 66% of the time AND assuming that SVB wins every other game he doesn't miss in. There is the chance that someone can have a few break & runs, but I didn't factor that in. Let's face it, for most amateurs, that isn't a huge factor.
**EDIT- I feel that anyone that doesn't play slightly under Open/Shortstop speed is smoking crack, if they think they are getting more than 25
Eric
I came to a similar conclusion, using Shane's stats from his match vs Orcullo. I used these stats:
http://www.pool-trax.net/Events/EventDetails.aspx?Sid=308
Based on the Pool Trax stats, Shane played 181 games, took 950 shots(offense only?) and missed 116 balls. Let's assume that of the 116 misses, you get left with a simple (five balls or less) runout, say, 1/3rd of the time. That equates to about 38 simple chances to runout. Then, let's assume that we only convert 2 out of 3 of our chances. Taht means you would end up with around 25 games, give or take.
This is assuming you will run out from the 5 ball(or less), 66% of the time AND assuming that SVB wins every other game he doesn't miss in. There is the chance that someone can have a few break & runs, but I didn't factor that in. Let's face it, for most amateurs, that isn't a huge factor.
**EDIT- I feel that anyone that doesn't play slightly under Open/Shortstop speed is smoking crack, if they think they are getting more than 25
Eric
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The way to have anyone try to get to 30+ games is to have SVB get to 100 and not be "fantasy" but actual reality is...give him $2000 per game for every game he holds his AZB amateur opponent to under 30..he gives up only 20 games he gets 20k...gives up 10 games he get 40k..that's when you find out how many games you can get to against SVB when he's basically playing the $ ghost..not too many bangers will come close to 30...most wont come close to 20 if SVB smells that amount of cash.
And the safeties he will play against a banger will give him ball in hand all day..try beating Shane when he has ball in hand..the defense he can play against a banger at fulll speed is more impressive then his offense which is obscene..
That is the way to get SVB's full attention and playing like he did last weekend. Now he isn't playing for fun..and will bear down in a long set which I just saw is deadly. $2000 for every game under 30, get a comfortable chair..
Yes
Yes
Yes.
Now back to the more important issues which nobody seems to have the guts to tackle.
How many AZers have to be on the ice at the same time vs an average NHL squad to have a fighting chance of playing them even?
NBA ?
Thanks
Kevin