When will the Southwest cue market come crashing down?

[classiccues]

Is their sustainability as questionable as these guys that come out of nowhere where their cues are 4 pointers going for 4k, when they really have very few cues in the field for comparison? At least SW's are in the hands of playing champions. JMO

JV

I personally don't get it. I don't see the prices that they are commanding as sustainable. They play well no doubt and they are made well but so are 1000's of other cues. Beyond that there really is nothing special about them IMO. (and yes I've owned several over the years and yes I could afford to buy at todays prices if I chose too) What am I missing?

 

[dawgcpa]

Market

Market is fine as long as I'm around. I like em, I like to buy and sell them and I don't mind paying for what I like. There are many more out there like me...BTW I think the prices from them directly are great. It's the markup from 3rd parties that get the prices where you see them. But people still buy them and likely always will.

 

[Maxx]

When I say cost that includes a reasonable profit. I am not sure what she charges and I am sure it is fair. But if I was in the market for one of her cues I wouldnt be willing to wait 13+ years so I would be faced with looking at the used market. The prices peope have them listed for is way beyond what I would value them at and is what my comment was directed at. And for most people those are the only cues that would be available.

I got it, the secondary market can be a little out there, but if they can get it, why not?

 

[$TAKE HOR$E]

I probably should have read every post in this thread because im sure this has been mentioned. The market value of SW cues all depends on SW themselves, and the prices they charge. Years ago when you could buy cues and more than double your investment the day you received it, they were probably taking in more orders per year than they are now. I could be entirely wrong though. I just spoke to them a few weeks ago and was told the wait time was 12 years. I wasnt looking to buy a cue so I didnt get a price quote but with the numbers they are producing and the fact the cue market isnt taking off anytime soon the likelihood of them going up is unlikely. The "whos who" and "longtime buyers" are probably still getting a better deal on them just as they would with many other cuemakers so they will always have a solid following. Their clientele is vastly for resale and im sure that when you take simple economics into account, those people know when they will price themselves out. For example, if they charge 3K for a cue that is fetching close to that same amount on the secondary market, well...10-12 years later and 4K more cues on the chopping block and their orders will be on the downhill. They were lucky to hit the ground running and with a solid product that thus far has weathered the ever changing cue market. The pre-date cues will always have a greater collectible value, no different than the 60s-70s muscle cars. One thing is for sure, there's only so many combinations of veneers and rings on a 6 point cue :grin: That can be a double edged sword though, it keeps their designs basic but it also doesnt let the folks with off the wall hideous designs that appeal to less than 1% of the cue buyers order cues that wont sell at any cost...

Another one up they have over a lot of the top tier cuemakers is the fact that "players" actually play with their cues. Someone mentioned Dennis O and theres no way a top player is going to play with a warclub, unless their sponser money is through the roof. Michael at Omega had Dennis's cue for sale in his booth a few years ago at the DCC...wish I would have bought it looking back. That being said, ive always wondered what cuemaker or company, like SW has the largest player ratio. Its no secret that probably 90% of the cues produced today are not for players. A lot of cues play great, but most of them are not for great players. It would be interesting to see what the top 20 or so players are playing with.

A friend of mine recently told me something that rings absolutely true. You walk into a poolroom 30, 40 or even 20 years ago with a fancy cue and you get no action. Nowadays you walk in with a pimped out stick and you get all you want. Just to use SVB as an example, his cue is something just about any APA player could get their hands on and its hard to argue him not being at the top or at least close to the summit. Now travel 15-20 players down the list and chances are that level of player is going to be playing with a more expensive cue. Ive gotten way off the beaten path with this but I think where im going is that an expensive cue dont mean its a player, and SVB is a living proof poster child for that argument. Does that mean that a Szam isnt a good plying cue, absolutely not, but the proof is in the Cuetec pooding. In closing, there are waaaaay more players using $150 shafts on mid-upper tier cuemakers butts than players using a $200 Meucci butt and $600 Searing shafts :rotflmao1:

$H.....preworkout just wore off :thumbup:

 

[Ken_4fun]

I sold my Franklin era, ebony nose cue recently to fund a Balabushka cue. It was an incredible cue, and frankly the second best playing Southwest cue I have ever played with for any time.

The absolutely best playing Southwest I have ever played with was Jason Miller's (DCC Champion) Southwest cue. The folks around Cincinnati that were able to own or hit with that cue also thought that as well. But like most here, I traded it.....:angry:. I traded it (plus alot of cash) to Ken Kerner here on AZ for Gus Szamboti cue.

The good thing about having a Southwest cue is it is so easy to sell or trade.

While I think about those two Southwest cues with a little sadness that they got away, I am happy I made the trades.

Ken

 

[deanoc]

when a product sells for more than the cost to produce it etc

I guess an artist with a $10 canvass and 2 hours to paint a picture can never charge more than $45

how cfoolish

but how can lauruie or south west regulate the price in the aftermarket?
she can not or rather does not

if she quit it would have an effect
if she started mass producing ,it might but thats it


the truth is when things go up they continue to go up

that is the way to pick winners
you see the price of land in a certain area north always going up

like in almost every city
you buy for investment

you see it going down on the south side, you might get more house for your money but the profit potential is not there

there is hardly an investment out there that doesn't scare the investor when he sees prices going up

I remember buying Balabushkas for $125
,i thought Willie Mosconi was asking an exorbitant price when he asked me $2800

when it sold for $100,000 I realized the error of my ways

south west cues are loved world wide
szamboti cues are the same

i don't know about any others


i like Larry vigus and Jake hulsey cues
they are super quality and play good,they don't make many and i reason that
they will go up in value at an even greater %

but I don't really know

 

[JoeyInCali]

I sold my Franklin era, ebony nose cue recently to fund a Balabushka cue. It was an incredible cue, and frankly the second best playing Southwest cue I have ever played with for any time.

The absolutely best playing Southwest I have ever played with was Jason Miller's (DCC Champion) Southwest cue. The folks around Cincinnati that were able to own or hit with that cue also thought that as well. But like most here, I traded it.....:angry:. I traded it (plus alot of cash) to Ken Kerner here on AZ for Gus Szamboti cue.

The good thing about having a Southwest cue is it is so easy to sell or trade.

While I think about those two Southwest cues, I am happy I made the trades.

Ken

I know someone who had a few SW.
The best playing one he had was a satin BEM model.
No points, no checkered rings and just oil finish.
He also had a few bushkas and Gus.
That was one of his best playing cues along with a Scruggs sneaky, a Hagan bubinga cue, a Zylr curly maple and a Judd.

 

[TATE]

I guess an artist with a $10 canvass and 2 hours to paint a picture can never charge more than $45

Deano is so wise. It is very important to understand what is very important. Here is a Peter Max, takes him an hour or two to paint on a $10 canvas. Cost? $65,000. Buyers? Of course there are!

What is very important to understand is there are a number of people with $65,000 willing to buy this stuff and even fight over it. Is it for you and me? Probably not, but that really doesn't matter.


http://www.houzz.com/photos/45855455/Peter-Max-Profile-Painting-contemporary-paintings

 

[ghost ball]

Haha, everyone is beating around the bush...the answer is TWO WEEKS. In two weeks the SW market will crash.

 

[$TAKE HOR$E]

when a product sells for more than the cost to produce it etc

I guess an artist with a $10 canvass and 2 hours to paint a picture can never charge more than $45

how cfoolish
When someone can turn a nickle into a fifty cent piece more power to them, thats the basis that makes the world go round...the almighty dollar and everyone tries to turn their own nickle into a fifty cent piece however they see fit...

but how can lauruie or south west regulate the price in the aftermarket?
she can not or rather does not
She absolutely can, by the price she sees fit to charge first hand. Theres always a happy medium and as long as that stays constant there will always be a market for them. Shes a smart business woman as you probably know as well as anyone. If she were to raise her prices to the point people couldnt make 10% of their investment flipping a cue then that will absolutely effect supply and demand and cues will eventually become stagnant. It happens all the time and in almost every aspect of business.

if she quit it would have an effect
if she started mass producing ,it might but thats it
Quitting or mass producing would have a huge effect. The price would rise drastically if she quit and drop the same if she mass produced. When production stops prices go up, Gus is a good example. When product floods the market it drops, Dale Perry is a good example.


the truth is when things go up they continue to go up

that is the way to pick winners
you see the price of land in a certain area north always going up

like in almost every city
you buy for investment

you see it going down on the south side, you might get more house for your money but the profit potential is not there

there is hardly an investment out there that doesn't scare the investor when he sees prices going up

I remember buying Balabushkas for $125
,i thought Willie Mosconi was asking an exorbitant price when he asked me $2800
You were lucky enough to come from an awesome time period imo, one in which most of us can only read about
when it sold for $100,000 I realized the error of my ways
There isnt a cuemaker alive today nor will their ever be again that will have that kind of price inflation.
south west cues are loved world wide
szamboti cues are the same

i don't know about any others


i like Larry vigus and Jake hulsey cues
they are super quality and play good,they don't make many and i reason that
they will go up in value at an even greater %
Id really like to try out a Vigus, I hear they hit good
but I don't really know
You and me both

For what its worth...

Deano is so wise. It is very important to understand what is very important. Here is a Peter Max, takes him an hour or two to paint on a $10 canvas. Cost? $65,000. Buyers? Of course there are!

What is very important to understand is there are a number of people with $65,000 willing to buy this stuff and even fight over it. Is it for you and me? Probably not, but that really doesn't matter.


http://www.houzz.com/photos/45855455/Peter-Max-Profile-Painting-contemporary-paintings

Thats a very good point you made. My 4 year old son painted something similar but people would think I was crazy if I tried to sell it for $65 let alone $65K, and ive got $10 in the canvas and the paint and he did it in less than 5 minutes...proving that you're buying the name not the quality. I built a motorcycle that would rival almost any West Coast Chopper from 0-100 mph, was it worth as much as a WCC absolutely not. The difference between the cue market as a whole and other art forms that consist of a recreation and collectible aspect is like the difference between boxing and mma. Without a doubt there are a few big timers in the cue world when it comes to buying or collecting but they're not even on the same playing field as the art collectors who would look at a $10-$20K cue like it was a Bob Ross painting. Just like Floyd making $300M for a single fight and the higest UFC fighter paid to date is just north of $3M. There is one thing for certain though, with Trump as president we all better hope it dont effect the cue prices like it has firearms or pretty soon you'll be able to buy a SW for $449 like you can AR15s now How sick are those folks who blowed $1500 on them a few years ago :rotflmao:

 

[JC]

Not anytime soon, SW is still in high demand.

Smart business if you ask me.

Dumb business model if you ask me. More like a hobby type of idea that never evolved.

When you limit your production you limit your profit potential. They are a little bit expensive but do the math. No one over there at the factory is getting rich. They can't be, there just isn't enough in the pot. Selling today's cues with yesterday's dollars. There's just a lot of things about it that are not smart once you cut through the mystique. I'm only talking about the business model, not the product.

The buyer isn't the only thing on a list. The manufacturer is also on one. And it's short. Just ask Jerry.

At the very least production of these cues is going to halt one day. And when that happens you're going to have a bunch of people who have been waiting 8, 9, 10 years for one. Which is sad and totally avoidable. They could do the exact same thing on a 3-4 year wait. 12 years is beyond preposterous even if folks will play the silly game.

Or I could be full of shit. That's a distinct possibility too.

JC

 

[AtLarge]

I wonder, how many cues they make each year, an accurate estimate pls. ...

In an interview in 2012, Al Lawrence of South West Cues said they were then making about [number deleted] cues per year.

In the 1990's, prior to Jerry Franklin's death in 1996, their production volume was higher. In the interview, Al said the most they ever made in one year was approximately [number deleted] -- he wasn't sure of the exact number.

Edit -- I just removed the two production numbers from the above statements. The reason is that I went to find the interview that I referenced (TAR Podcast #27) and learned that it has been taken down (or never put up), possibly because South West didn't want some of the things Al said made public. In case the production numbers were part of that, I have removed them.

 

[trob]

Yep plenty of dumb ones out there, look at all the predator customers...

Just giving you a hard time

Haha I was just joking around honestly. To each there own I always say. I played with plenty of pre franklin south wests and they never did much for me. I know a lot of flippers who have a lot invested our hoping they never go down!!

 

[trob]

Nobody is knocking anything. It's an Internet forum and people have different opinions. If you cant handle that maybe you should sign out because free thought isn't for you . There are plenty of great cues every bit as good as southwest. Thier price stays up becuase they don't increase production no matter what the wait is.. period. If they increased production the price of there cues would drop like a stone.

Knocking must provide a perverse pleasure

it need not be direct,if it is in the form of a question a fella
with really stupid ideas can always reply

I wuz just askin

south west makes the best cues ever made
we were all concerned when Jerry died but his wife Laurie who had been running the show
continued
to make the same quality cues
with the same high standards of customer loyalty

perhaps i should put my money where my mouth is

i will buy any new cue with 6 points for $500 more than you paid her new

i am aware that some pay more

who else can we say this about

by far the best investment and best playing cue ever made

it really irks me when people knock a little widows business

what fun can that be

being the best is like a monkey climbing a tall pole
the higher you get the more exposure you get

 

[trob]

I always felt when I was into big name cues if I wanted a southwest I'll just buy one on the secondary market. They are for the most part pretty plain cues. I'm not putting them down for that.. I prefer it over cues with tons of inlays. I just felt I could go to the super billiards expo.. I always see a fair amount for sale.. and find one that catches my eye. I don't have the patience to wait 10 years plus for a cue

 

[skins]

i like Larry vigus and Jake hulsey cues
they are super quality and play good,they don't make many and i reason that
they will go up in value at an even greater %

but I don't really know

Any unique quality product with EXTREMELY limited production will always fetch a premium. Especially like cues from Larry or Jake who's are just about as hard to obtain as pig wings...

Also there is no cue maker, or from now on ever will be IMHO, who will ever have a greater potential of future value of their work than Dennis S. (The original "pig wing".... the cues not the man..LOL :thumbup

 

[skins]

I sold my Franklin era, ebony nose cue recently to fund a Balabushka cue. It was an incredible cue, and frankly the second best playing Southwest cue I have ever played with for any time.

The absolutely best playing Southwest I have ever played with was Jason Miller's (DCC Champion) Southwest cue. The folks around Cincinnati that were able to own or hit with that cue also thought that as well. But like most here, I traded it.....:angry:. I traded it (plus alot of cash) to Ken Kerner here on AZ for Gus Szamboti cue.

The good thing about having a Southwest cue is it is so easy to sell or trade.

While I think about those two Southwest cues with a little sadness that they got away, I am happy I made the trades.

Ken

I've had many an offer for my ebony nosed Franklin but just havent gotten to where you were enough to let it go. Maybe if I was offered a Gus or Bushka I might be able to get there.

 

[JoeyInCali]

Dumb business model if you ask me. More like a hobby type of idea that never evolved.

When you limit your production you limit your profit potential. They are a little bit expensive but do the math. No one over there at the factory is getting rich. They can't be, there just isn't enough in the pot. Selling today's cues with yesterday's dollars. There's just a lot of things about it that are not smart once you cut through the mystique. I'm only talking about the business model, not the product.

The buyer isn't the only thing on a list. The manufacturer is also on one. And it's short. Just ask Jerry.

At the very least production of these cues is going to halt one day. And when that happens you're going to have a bunch of people who have been waiting 8, 9, 10 years for one. Which is sad and totally avoidable. They could do the exact same thing on a 3-4 year wait. 12 years is beyond preposterous even if folks will play the silly game.

Or I could be full of shit. That's a distinct possibility too.

JC

Any idea how they can speed things up and not lose some quality ?

 

[JC]

Any idea how they can speed things up and not lose some quality ?

Of course I do.

And if I was 12 years behind I would be on it straight away. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should. A 12 year waiting list falls into this category.

If not to put more money in my own pocket at the very least to try to be fair to the people who desire my product.

But that's all speculation on my part because I wait 12 years for no material goods. So I can't even begin to relate to who would do this. I would not sign up for the list just as a protest against it's existence.

But again it's like telemarketers. I don't blame them. If people would stop buying their stuff they would stop calling. The ultimate blame lies on the demand side.

On a serious note, someone asked how many cues SW is making a year. Was that answered or does anyone know the answer?

JC

 

[billiardthought]

And if I was 12 years behind I would be on it straight away. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should. A 12 year waiting list falls into this category.

If not to put more money in my own pocket at the very least to try to be fair to the people who desire my product.

Southwest has been, is, and will most likely (never say never) stay successful for some time. It's kind of like the iconic delicatessen in the heart of downtown. They do things their own way, and there are a few people who can't stand to watch them 'win'. Meanwhile, the line is out their front door, each and every day.

If you find yourself at the helm of an operation like this, with consistent demand and a totally rock solid customer base, tell me with that giant brain of yours what exactly you would change.

I think the flip side example of this could be those Yeti coolers. Premium product, premium price, and people are willing to buy it. The only problem in my opinion, is the company recognized their meteoric demand rise and took the production with it. The coolers are available everywhere. The market should become saturated if it isn't already, and they will probably be looking to shave some costs on the company side here once sales decline (everyone has their incredible cooler and doesn't need another one).

My two cents.