buddha162 said:
You are absolutely wrong in your analysis. A local pro will stand the best chance against a world class player if they're playing 8 Ball. He would need the 7 out to even have a chance against Efren, or Archer, or any of the top Asian players if the game were 9ball.
Your scenarios surrounding an early end to a 9ball rack revolves around luck. Efren has as good a chance as the local pro to kick in a 9ball on the break, or combo an easy 1-9 hanger. But playing 8ball, the local pro stands as good a chance to win based on his skill alone.
As good as Efren is, 8-ball is simply too unchallenging to provide a decent test of skill between him and (gasp!) even a top A player. That's the sad truth about 8ball, it simply does not challenge players at the top level.
-Roger
I don't know about this. I think I hear you agreeing with the earlier poster that an early end to 9 ball revolves around luck, and adding that the luck applies equally to either player. I'm also reading that you agree with the earlier poster that the luck mentioned is much less of a factor in 8 ball - you say playing 8 ball, the PHP wins, if he wins, on his skill alone. So far, you and the earlier poster agree, and I agree with all of it.
But I see you concluding based on that, that the PHP would have a better chance in 8 ball. That, I can't see.
Based on skill alone the PHP is never or very rarely going to win, because his skill level is just not as good. Let's say for argument's sake that the PHP will get 10% of the games he plays against Efren, based on skill alone. In 8 ball, where it's being argued that skill is the only factor, if they play 100 matches (lets make the math easy), the PHP wins ten.
Now add the luck factor - as in 9 ball. Let's say for argument's sake, that the outcome of 10% of the games is determined by luck, rather than skill. And this luck, as we said, applies equally to either player. So in the 100 match scenario, ten matches are determined by luck. Equally distributed (which doesn't always happen), that means the PHP gets five and Efren gets five. There are 90 more matches whose outcome is decided on skill. Based on the same 10% estimate as we used in 8 ball, the PHP will win 9 of them. So altogether in the 100 match 9 ball race, the PHP wins 14 games.
100 matches - no luck, the PHP gets 10. Throw in some luck, he gets 14.
Mathematically, there's a line where the luck becomes insignificant. It would occur when the skill levels were such that the lesser player based on skill alone would win about 50% of the matches. At that point, the number he would win based on skill vs luck would not change.
If you're going to play a *much* better player, mathematically speaking, a game which includes the opportunity to win by luck is the better choice.
I realize it doesn't happen too often at the pro level, but it does go into the statistics as a runout. A D player is going to ride the 9 or shoot hard at every given opportunity and will win more than his fair share just on slop. And I am surprised that no one mentioned that before.
