I've played probably 30-50 champions in professional tournaments on 9 foot tables. Races to 11. My track record is surprisingly good...against anyone in the world I know I still have a good shot to get to 11! I can see the finish line! The best player doesn't have to win, I just have to get to 11!
But will you get to 11 more times than they do when you have to play nine of those races to 11? Because nine races to 11 is what it takes to be roughly the same as a single race to 100. Of course the answer is no way in hell. You have been choosing to look at it as a single race to 11 instead of the reality which is after nine races to 11 you need to have won more of them than they did. No way you are going to come out ahead in number of sets won, just like if you played them a race to 100 you might be the first guy to win 11 games but you won't be the first to hit 100.
In a race to 100.....there is no question the better player has to win.
This isn't really true at all. If the score isn't a blowout then the question still looms large in a race to 100. A five game margin of victory is near meaningless after that many games for example, and a ten game margin of victory isn't exactly a definitive statement either for that matter. The lesser player can easily win a race to 100 if the two players are fairly close in skill. Unless the score is a blowout nothing is definitively settled with a race to 100.
My point was that if I were going to play a player I felt I could beat I'd play race to 100 or 15 ahead because that would put the most heat on both of us.
If you were a head and shoulders better player than your opponent then the race to 100 might work fine (aside from it being boring and getting no viewers and making no ppv money etc). But if the opponent is anywhere close to your speed at all I think you have a much better chance with smaller sets and just more of them like say nine races to 11, or seven races to 15.
In a race to 100 depending on how the swings go he could have a swing at just the right moment that puts him over 100 first. Or could hit a gear at the last second playing over his head that puts him to the 100 mark first. Or towards the end of the match starts getting the good rolls and you get the bad ones and he hits the 100 first. But do you think the swings and rolls etc are going to go his way over and over and over again for him to keep hitting the 11 mark more times than you when you run that race nine separate times? Fat chance. It could happen once, but almost no chance it happens repeatedly enough to allow him to win a best of nine races to 11. That many races reduces the variance and almost ensures the best player prevails.
And when you factor in the added pressure of the shorter sets it even more clearly separates the better players. When you have to come with it again and again nine times for the nine sets, and know that you can't afford even a short spell where you play bad because it will cost you the set, the better player is favored by an even larger margin than they they would be in a single long race, again, assuming the two players are anywhere close in skill level.
The many shorter races all but eliminates variance caused by rolls, swings, playing over their head for a short spell etc, and it adds a lot more pressure, all of which makes it better for truly separating the skills of two players and ensuring the better player does in fact win.