Breaking Stats -- 2011 US Open 9-Ball

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AtLarge

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I watched the 2011 US Open 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats; they started Sunday, Oct. 16.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond Pro-Am table, Simonis cloth, Delta-13 Elite rack, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself, 2-ball must be racked at the back of the rack, break from the box, a 9-ball made on the break spots up if it went in either of the foot-rail pockets, no soft breaking (at least 3 balls must pass the side pockets or be pocketed), cue-ball fouls only, and jump cues are allowed.

For the 7-day event, 39 matches (660 games) were streamed, as follows:

Day 1 (Sun., Oct. 16)​
Shuff def. Hjorliefson 11-2, Ussery d. Davenport 11-5, Wilke d. Morra 11-6​
Hohmann d. Pole 11-1, Lo d. Deuel 11-8, and Gabica d. Schmidt 11-8​
​
Day 2 (Mon., Oct. 17​
Hatch d. Broumpton 11-5, Immonen d. Cohen 11-8, Van Boening d. Shuff 11-4​
Pinegar d. Owen 11-7, Mazon d. Engel 11-8, and Pagulayan d. Hall 11-2​
​
Day 3 (Tues., Oct. 18)​
Parica d. Al-Binali 11-4, Zvi d. Hendrickson 11-9, Hopkins d. Demet 11-9​
Wiseman d. Reyna 11-3, Kang d. Zampko 11-4, and B. Bryant d. E. Dominguez 11-7​
​
Day 4 (Wed., Oct. 19)​
Hopkins d. Hohmann 11-7, Cohen d. Gallagher 11-3, Hjorliefson d. Hernandez 11-3​
Wilkie d. Vidal 11-6, Strickland d. Mills 11-3, and Gray d. Boyes 11-7​
​
Day 5 (Thurs., Oct. 20)​
Williams d. Crosby 11-5, Lo d. Shuff 11-8, Appleton d. Klatt 11-10​
Morris d. Varner 11-5, Archer d. Lining 11-3, and Pagulayan d. Kiamco 11-0​
​
Day 6 (Fri., Oct. 21)​
Feijen d. Pinegar 11-9, Hatch d. Vann Corteza 11-10, Appleton d. Archer 11-9​
Appleton d. Putnam 11-7, Pagulayan d. Nevel 11-7, and Putnam d. See 11-7​
​
Day 7 (Sat., Oct. 22)​
Appleton d. Pagulayan 11-6, Putnam d. Pagulayan 11-8, and Appleton d. Putnam 13-6​

The breaking results were as follows:

Breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
Day 1 -- 60 of 96 (63%)​
Day 2 -- 59 of 100 (59%)​
Day 3 -- 42 of 102 (41%)​
Day 4 -- 60 of 95 (63%)​
Day 5 -- 75 of 97 (77%)​
Day 6 -- 74 of 115 (64%)​
Day 7 -- 36 of 55 (65%)​
7-day total -- 406 of 660 (62%)​

Breaker won the game:
Day 1 -- 58 of 96 (60%)​
Day 2 -- 58 of 100 (58%)​
Day 3 -- 56 of 102 (55%)​
Day 4 -- 59 of 95 (62%)​
Day 5 -- 66 of 97 (68%)​
Day 6 -- 53 of 115 (46%)​
Day 7 -- 32 of 55 (58%)​
7-day total -- 382 of 660 (58%)​

Break-and-run games:
Day 1 -- 25 of 96 (26%)​
Day 2 -- 22 of 100 (22%)​
Day 3 -- 10 of 102 (10%)​
Day 4 -- 10 of 95 (11%)​
Day 5 -- 34 of 97 (35%)​
Day 6 -- 18 of 115 (16%)​
Day 7 -- 18 of 55 (33%)​
7-day total -- 137 of 660 (21%)​

9-balls on the break:
The 137 break-and-run games included 8 9-balls on the break (1.2% of the 660 breaks). In addition, 6 9-balls were made (0.9%) that went in the two bottom pockets and had to be spotted rather than counting as wins.


Edits: 10/18: added to list of conditions in first paragraph
10/19: updated with the results of Day 3
10/20: updated with the results of Day 4
10/21: updated with the results of Day 5
10/22 AM: updated with the results of Day 6
10/22 PM: updated with the results of Day 7
11/5: corrected a few numbers
 
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AtLarge said:
I've been watching the US Open 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats; they started Sunday. The conditions for this event include: Diamond Pro-Am table, Simonis cloth, Delta-13 Elite rack, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself, a 9-ball made on the break spots up if it went in either of the foot-rail pockets, no soft breaking (at least 3 balls must reach the side or be pocketed), and jump cues are allowed.

Through the first two days, we have had 12 matches (196 games) streamed, as follows:
Day 1 (10/16/11) -- Shuff def. Hjorliefson 11-2, Ussery d. Davenport 11-5, Wilke d. Morra 11-6, Hohmann d. Pole 11-1, Lo d. Deuel 11-8, and Gabica d. Schmidt 11-8.

Day 2 (10/17/11) -- Hatch d. Broumpton 11-5, Immonen d. Cohen 11-8, Van Boening d. Shuff 11-4, Pinegar d. Owen 11-7, Mazon d. Engel 11-8, and Pagulayan d. Hall 11-2.​

The breaking results so far are as follows:

Breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
Day 1 -- 60 of 96 (63%)
Day 2 -- 59 of 100 (59%)
2-day total -- 119 of 196 (61%)​

Breaker won the game:
Day 1 -- 58 of 96 (60%)
Day 2 -- 58 of 100 (58%)
2-day total -- 116 of 196 (59%)​

Break-and-run games:
Day 1 -- 25 of 96 (26%)
Day 2 -- 22 of 100 (22%)
2-day total -- 47 of 196 (24%)​
Click to expand...

Thank you for putting in the work to compile this.

One group of stats I would like to see is a breakdown of efficiency of the cut break vs.the power break.
 
AtLarge said:
I've been watching the US Open 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats; they started Sunday. The conditions for this event include: Diamond Pro-Am table, Simonis cloth, Delta-13 Elite rack, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself, a 9-ball made on the break spots up if it went in either of the foot-rail pockets, no soft breaking (at least 3 balls must reach the side or be pocketed), and jump cues are allowed.

Through the first two days, we have had 12 matches (196 games) streamed, as follows:
Day 1 (10/16/11) -- Shuff def. Hjorliefson 11-2, Ussery d. Davenport 11-5, Wilke d. Morra 11-6, Hohmann d. Pole 11-1, Lo d. Deuel 11-8, and Gabica d. Schmidt 11-8.

Day 2 (10/17/11) -- Hatch d. Broumpton 11-5, Immonen d. Cohen 11-8, Van Boening d. Shuff 11-4, Pinegar d. Owen 11-7, Mazon d. Engel 11-8, and Pagulayan d. Hall 11-2.​

The breaking results so far are as follows:

Breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
Day 1 -- 60 of 96 (63%)
Day 2 -- 59 of 100 (59%)
2-day total -- 119 of 196 (61%)​

Breaker won the game:
Day 1 -- 58 of 96 (60%)
Day 2 -- 58 of 100 (58%)
2-day total -- 116 of 196 (59%)​

Break-and-run games:
Day 1 -- 25 of 96 (26%)
Day 2 -- 22 of 100 (22%)
2-day total -- 47 of 196 (24%)​
Click to expand...

Yeah, this is what everything i have seen is indicating: rack your own is worth 10 percentage points. Opponent racks was always at or near 50% with respect to breaker winning game, with rack your own it is at 60% more or less.

That is amazing. Anybody who thinks theses guys don't fiddle with the racks when racking for their opponent are out of their minds considering this. 1 or 2 percentage points is big, 10 is GIGANTIC!!
 
Fiddle about, fiddle about.
Keith-Moon-BBC-Radio-2-pic1.jpg
 
Thanks for compiling & sharing this info! Did you note how many 9's on the break occurred? History says the men make the 9 about 2-4% of the time.

The 2011 Topeka WPBA event on ESPN indicated that the top women win >70% of the games on their break. The men seem to be in the 60% range. I wonder if that difference is explained by: when men turn over the table, the breaker doesn't get as many good looks at the table (opponent runs out or plays strong safe)? I noticed that the women trade many safeties when failing to run out.
 
is the 10 percentage point difference in who racks attributed to racking your opponent bad or racking yourself "well"? I know what my opinion is, but I wanna see if others differ....:cool:
 
Need to point out that the racker is required to place the two ball at the bottom of the rack, a very good rule that, to a large extent, eliminates pattern racking.

Without this rule, the break and run percentage would definitely be higher and the differential between loser racks and winner racks would be greater.

Hence, I'd argue that the comparison being made in this thread is inappropriate. Apples and oranges here.
 
mosconiac said:
Thanks for compiling & sharing this info! Did you note how many 9's on the break occurred? History says the men make the 9 about 2-4% of the time.

The 2011 Topeka WPBA event on ESPN indicated that the top women win >70% of the games on their break. The men seem to be in the 60% range. I wonder if that difference is explained by: when men turn over the table, the breaker doesn't get as many good looks at the table (opponent runs out or plays strong safe)? I noticed that the women trade many safeties when failing to run out.
Click to expand...

I feel quite confident that your stat about the WPBA event (>70%) is most likely caused by the disparity of talent amongst the women. Generally the margin of victory in the early rounds is greater than that of the men. After the first round or two, it is uncommon to see a men's match where the loser does not get at least 50% of the match. Some of the women that make it a couple rounds just cannot compete with the top 20 or so.
 
We might settle on saying;
When one is racking for themselves they may tend to put a lil extra effort into it that may or may not be there when racking for a person that just beat them the last game and is trying to beat them again?
 
mosconiac said:
Thanks for compiling & sharing this info! Did you note how many 9's on the break occurred? History says the men make the 9 about 2-4% of the time. ...
Click to expand...

For the 196 games on Days 1 and 2, four of the 47 "break-and-run" games were via 9-ball on the break. So that was 2%. Note that the 9 on the break doesn't count in this event if it is made in either of the foot-rail corner pockets, but I don't believe any of those occurred on Day 1 or Day 2.

Curiously, of the 4 9's on the break, two of them occurred in the first six of the 196 games (while Brandon Shuff was going ahead 7-0).
 
sjm said:
Need to point out that the racker is required to place the two ball at the bottom of the rack, a very good rule that, to a large extent, eliminates pattern racking.
Click to expand...

Stu, did you get to watch any of the SVB vs. Donny Mills race to 100? His pattern racking includes having the two at the bottom.

I didn't know they changed the rules to rack your own. I think this makes Donny a good pick to win the Open. His cut break gets three balls above the side and he is deadly with that wing ball. Anyone who watched TAR 17 has seen the light when it comes to the Mills RYO skills.
 
AtLarge, Thanks for taking the time to do this research and share it with us.

What I'd really be interested in is the breakdown of these stats for players who win their matches vs. the stats for those who lose. Averages are good, but I'd like to know what it takes to win.

Thanks again!
 
AtLarge said:
I've been watching the US Open 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats; they started Sunday. The conditions for this event include: Diamond Pro-Am table, Simonis cloth, Delta-13 Elite rack, winner breaks, breaker racks for himself, 2-ball must be racked at the back of the rack, break from the box, a 9-ball made on the break spots up if it went in either of the foot-rail pockets, no soft breaking (at least 3 balls must reach the side or be pocketed), and jump cues are allowed.

Through the first two days, we have had 12 matches (196 games) streamed, as follows:
Day 1 (10/16/11) -- Shuff def. Hjorliefson 11-2, Ussery d. Davenport 11-5, Wilke d. Morra 11-6, Hohmann d. Pole 11-1, Lo d. Deuel 11-8, and Gabica d. Schmidt 11-8.

Day 2 (10/17/11) -- Hatch d. Broumpton 11-5, Immonen d. Cohen 11-8, Van Boening d. Shuff 11-4, Pinegar d. Owen 11-7, Mazon d. Engel 11-8, and Pagulayan d. Hall 11-2.​

The breaking results so far are as follows:

Breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
Day 1 -- 60 of 96 (63%)
Day 2 -- 59 of 100 (59%)
2-day total -- 119 of 196 (61%)​

Breaker won the game:
Day 1 -- 58 of 96 (60%)
Day 2 -- 58 of 100 (58%)
2-day total -- 116 of 196 (59%)​

Break-and-run games:
Day 1 -- 25 of 96 (26%)
Day 2 -- 22 of 100 (22%)
2-day total -- 47 of 196 (24%)​


Edits: 10/18: added to list of conditions in first paragraph.
Click to expand...

AWESOME STATS. Thank you for providing them.

If I read them correctly, the breaker, breaks and runs out the game ONLY 24% of the time.
They may win the game when breaking an average of 59% but they aren't breaking and running out except for an average of 24% of the time.

Both numbers seem reasonable to me from what I have seen in 9 ball.

Now if you can obtain the most number of racks run. :D
 
brandoncook26 said:
Stu, did you get to watch any of the SVB vs. Donny Mills race to 100? His pattern racking includes having the two at the bottom.

I didn't know they changed the rules to rack your own. I think this makes Donny a good pick to win the Open. His cut break gets three balls above the side and he is deadly with that wing ball. Anyone who watched TAR 17 has seen the light when it comes to the Mills RYO skills.
Click to expand...

Thanks for this, Brandon. I must admit that I was not aware that there are those whose pattern racking worked this way. The traditional thinking is that having the two ball near the one meant it would tend to go in the same general direction as the one (toward the kitchen), with the breaker able to send the cue ball where that break dictates.

I did not catch TAR 17, but now I hope I get to see how Donny accomplishes this. Pattern racking when the one and two have their positions fixed has to do with where you put the three ball. If he is not focusing on where he puts the three, he is not pattern racking, but he does have a big edge because he is used to and has developed an effective break for this rack configuration.
 
JoeyA said:
...Now if you can obtain the most number of racks run. :D
Click to expand...

The most consecutive break-&-runs in the streamed matches on the first two days was three -- by Ussery to close out his match against Davenport and by Hohmann against Pole. Both Shuff and Hohmann had 5 B&R's in 7-game stretches.
 
I just updated Post #1 to include the results for the 6 matches streamed on Day 3.

Day 3 witnessed quite a bit of inferior play compared to that of the first two days, and the numbers reflect that.
 
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