Breaking Stats -- 2011 US Open 9-Ball

Would be interesting to know more about the conditions on day 6. This deep in the tournament only quality players left, but still inferior play with the low B&R %-age compared to other days.

Were playing conditions different (humidity, fast rails etc)? Or perhaps just a lot of matches on the one-loss side with a lot on stake?
 
pooladdict said:
Would be interesting to know more about the conditions on day 6. This deep in the tournament only quality players left, but still inferior play with the low B&R %-age compared to other days.

Were playing conditions different (humidity, fast rails etc)? Or perhaps just a lot of matches on the one-loss side with a lot on stake?
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I did not DO THE MATH and know how it affecfts the daily stats, but Johnny Archer has only made a ball 1 or 2 times on all of his breaks. I also don't remember if he had a break and run.
 
AtLarge said:
I just updated Post #1 to include the breaking results for Day 6.

The loser got to at least 7 wins in every match on Day 6, and the total number of games played was considerably higher than any other day. But the proficiency was nothing like Day 5 -- it was the first day when the breaker won less than half of the games, and the frequency of break-and-run games was way down from Day 5.

Three more matches to go!
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Should it be 4 matches to go? Daz/Alex, Shawn/Dennis, loser-1 vs. winner-2, then the finals?
 
pooladdict said:
Would be interesting to know more about the conditions on day 6. This deep in the tournament only quality players left, but still inferior play with the low B&R %-age compared to other days.

Were playing conditions different (humidity, fast rails etc)? Or perhaps just a lot of matches on the one-loss side with a lot on stake?
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I observed all days except day six.I assume that the remaining players at this point are all using the more efficient cut break.

Could the low b/r % mean more player changes.Missed shots where balls hung up near the pocket that had fallen on previous days.The cloth is worn enough for players to alter patterns and play safe and try and keep control.

Good point on the humidity.More people in the audience.Did a storm front pass through that day?Nerves definitely come into play but what % of the low break and run number can be attributed to nerves.Hard to quantify.
 
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I estimate that I watched over a hundred matches there in person and I don't remember seeing the nine ball go in off the break more than three times.

However, the pros still consistently made a ball on the break, but the most racks I saw run in a row was about two and a half...I saw no runs of more than three by anyone, which makes me feel a lot better about my own game.
 
Most big tournaments like the U.S. OPen One Pocket Championship and this one clean those balls before every day's matches and I have to think they cleaned them on day 6 as well. If the cloth is getting worn in, as others have said, that could be the culprit.

Someone go check the humdity for Chesapeake VA yesterday. :D

I was just joking with the statement above but I did check and there was substantially more humidity in the Chesapeake VA area on Friday than there was on Thursday. ;) Today's humdity is starting off pretty good.

That's the weather report from this neck of the woods.
 
billbOK said:
I did not DO THE MATH and know how it affecfts the daily stats, but Johnny Archer has only made a ball 1 or 2 times on all of his breaks. I also don't remember if he had a break and run.
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If you are talking about the Appleton/Archer match yesterday afternoon, Johnny broke 10 times -- 5 were dry and 5 were successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).

In his previous streamed match -- on Thursday vs. Lining -- he broke successfully 11 out of 12 times!
 
JoeyA said:
Most big tournaments like the U.S. OPen One Pocket Championship and this one clean those balls before every day's matches and I have to think they cleaned them on day 6 as well. If the cloth is getting worn in, as others have said, that could be the culprit.

Someone go check the humdity for Chesapeake VA yesterday. :D

I was just joking with the statement above but I did check and there was substantially more humidity in the Chesapeake VA area on Friday than there was on Thursday. ;) Today's humdity is starting off pretty good.

That's the weather report from this neck of the woods.
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When Earl did the million dollar package at CJ's, he wiped off EVERY ball after EVERY rack, for ten racks. The new style GC pockets used at CJ's were like black pencil erasers, debris came on to every ball as it went into the hole.
 
9-balls on the break:
Day 1 -- 3 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 2 -- 1 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 3 -- 2 for a win; 2 spotted
Day 4 -- 0 for a win; 3 spotted
Day 5 -- 2 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 6 -- 0 for a win; 0 spotted
6-day total -- 8 for a win (1.3% of 605 breaks); 5 spotted (0.8%)​
 
AtLarge said:
9-balls on the break:
Day 1 -- 3 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 2 -- 1 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 3 -- 2 for a win; 2 spotted
Day 4 -- 0 for a win; 3 spotted
Day 5 -- 2 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 6 -- 0 for a win; 0 spotted
6-day total -- 8 for a win (1.3% of 605 breaks); 5 spotted (0.8%)​
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As the days wear on so increases the dirt on too the play surfaces and the room humidity with the increase of spectators, and so does the ability of balls going up table. Also, match numbers decrease, and quality of the breaking the balls good goes UP.
 
The answer to that is simple...

mosconiac said:
Thanks for compiling & sharing this info! Did you note how many 9's on the break occurred? History says the men make the 9 about 2-4% of the time.

The 2011 Topeka WPBA event on ESPN indicated that the top women win >70% of the games on their break. The men seem to be in the 60% range. I wonder if that difference is explained by: when men turn over the table, the breaker doesn't get as many good looks at the table (opponent runs out or plays strong safe)? I noticed that the women trade many safeties when failing to run out.
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The women on average don't play as well as the men, so when the men give up the table, there's a higher percentage chance that their opponent will run out...

Jaden
 
This was one of the most informative threads I've ever read on this forum. Take a deep bow, At Large.

It's interesting that even in rack your own, with the world's gratest players, the breaker wins only about 60% of the racks and breaks and runs about 20% of the time.

I've long believed that the breaker's advantage is often overstated in nine ball, and here we've got a huge sample size of over 600 racks to study...and let's not forget that those playing on the US Open 9-ball stream table are, on average, the strongest playing pros.
 
sjm said:
This was one of the most informative threads I've ever read on this forum. Take a deep bow, At Large.

It's interesting that even in rack your own, with the world's gratest players, the breaker wins only about 60% of the racks and breaks and runs about 20% of the time.

I've long believed that the breaker's advantage is often overstated in nine ball, and here we've got a huge sample size of over 600 racks to study...and let's not forget that those playing on the US Open 9-ball stream table are, on average, the strongest playing pros.
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Thanks, sjm. The thread is not quite over yet; I'll be adding today's results. But today's three streamed matches surely won't change the overall percentages much. Within the next few days I'll also try to break down the overall percentages a bit to give some additional refinement.
 
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I just updated Post #1 to include the final day's results.

Day 7 saw pretty high breaking proficiency; the break-and-run percentage was 31%, second only to Thursday's 35%.

For all 39 streamed matches combined (660 games), the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 61% of the time, won 58% of the games, and broke and ran 20% of the games. [Edit: See post #65.]

_______________________________________________

The final results for 9-balls on the break are as follows:
Day 1 -- 3 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 2 -- 1 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 3 -- 2 for a win; 2 spotted
Day 4 -- 0 for a win; 3 spotted
Day 5 -- 2 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 6 -- 0 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 7 -- 0 for a win; 1 spotted
7-day total -- 8 for a win (1.2% of 660 breaks); 6 spotted (0.9%)​
 
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AtLarge said:
I just updated Post #1 to include the final day's results.

Day 7 saw pretty high breaking proficiency; the break-and-run percentage was 31%, second only to Thursday's 35%.

For all 39 streamed matches combined (660 games), the breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 61% of the time, won 58% of the games, and broke and ran 20% of the games.

_______________________________________________

The final results for 9-balls on the break are as follows:
Day 1 -- 3 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 2 -- 1 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 3 -- 2 for a win; 2 spotted
Day 4 -- 0 for a win; 3 spotted
Day 5 -- 2 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 6 -- 0 for a win; 0 spotted
Day 7 -- 0 for a win; 1 spotted
7-day total -- 8 for a win (1.2% of 660 breaks); 6 spotted (0.9%)​
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Thx A.L:

These stats are only for up table (head and side pocket) nine ball make/wins..........right? I just wanted make sure and to mention this in case this aspect slipped by another reader.
Sure is difficult as the cloth wears down, and the crowds/humidity increase to make the nine come up table and pocket.
And anyone know if its going to be raining during the finals, if so, I'd pick todays winner to be the one who plays in the humidity more often to win it. I think I'll go ck the weather.
There's a ten percent chance of rain tonight, what time is the finals? Has the media been there much this week?
 
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Island Drive said:
Thx A.L:

These stats are only for up table (head and side pocket) nine ball make/wins..........right? I just wanted make sure and to mention this in case this aspect slipped by another reader.
Sure is difficult as the cloth wears down, and the crowds/humidity increase to make the nine come up table and pocket.
And anyone know if its going to be raining during the finals, if so, I'd pick todays winner to be the one who plays in the humidity more often to win it. I think I'll go ck the weather.
There's a ten percent chance of rain tonight, what time is the finals? Has the media been there much this week?
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Yes, 9-ball on the break was a win only if it went in the side or top pockets.

And you're a bit behind on the news. The event ended yesterday!
 
AtLarge said:
Yes, 9-ball on the break was a win only if it went in the side or top pockets.

And you're a bit behind on the news. The event ended yesterday!
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gettin' olds a bich :), they always used to end on Sun. oops....
 
I took a break from looking at breaking results, but today I got the notes out again.

How about push shots? Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot. What did the numbers say for this event?

Out of the 660 games that were streamed, 68 games (10%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:
  • Breaker pushed and won the game -- 24
  • Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 23
  • Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 7
  • Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 14
So, overall, the person who pushed won 31 of the 68 games (46%) and lost 37 (54%). But breakers who pushed came out about even, while non-breakers who pushed lost twice as many as they won!
 
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