something that I sorta gradually figured out, and has been working for me... is to use more follow if you keep ending up hosed after the break.
Follow is good because you can go into the balls two or even three times and that helps spread them. You also generally head down towards the foot rail where most of your shots will end up. If you don't get hooked close behind another ball, you should end up with a decent shot into one of the bottom corner pockets. You'll be pretty close to everything so even a ugly cut to the far corner or the side will be makeable.
When you draw, you end up getting far away, sometimes stuck on the head rail... and a lot of the balls that popped out are unshootable because the rack is in the way, or they 'double up' to form useless combinations.
I think the only time you don't want to follow is if you can see losing the cue ball and especially scratching. The way I often scratch is shown here - basically you graze the bottom of one ball, which sends the cue ball skimming into the side of the ball below it, and it caroms into the pocket.
I dunno if the lines make the 'double carom' action clear but I think that's where a lot of scratches can happen.
Scratching directly off a single ball in the stack is possible too, but at some angles it's less likely. Basically, think of the side of the rack as one straight line. If you can send the cue ball directly into that line (so that the cueball's path and the edge of the rack would make a "T") then you're pretty unlikely to carom off a single ball and then scratch. You'd have to be moving really fast and hit the ball at exactly the wrong place for that to happen. So look at the stack and see if the ball is going to go into the crack between two balls, and if not, cut loose with follow. You lose the cue ball but you usually come up with a shot anyway.
Remember that you really need to commit to your follow when you do this shot. The cue ball has to be spinning when it leaves the tip, still spinning when it hits the OB, and still spinning after hitting the rack... that's a ton of topspin. Don't think that a fast rolling ball is good enough, this cueball has to be diving forward like a kamikaze after touching the rack. So really commit to the topspin. With draw you don't need to go so crazy with it because you don't want to end up on the head rail, you're just trying to get away from the stack a foot or so.