Seeing FARGORATE stuff makes me wonder

[CreeDo]

Well I think that Fargorate is actually amazing idea. But there MAY be very few connecting matches between men and women which MAY make the system inaccurate to a certain degree when it comes to comparing numbers between sexes. Like I wrote in another thread - I have seen Siming Chen play against men at Eurotour and I like her game but she DEFINITELY didnt look like Fargorate 790 player, more like 730-740 to me. It would be very useful if Mike presented Fargorate performance of Siming Chen at mens Eurotour vs womens Eurotour, that would compare her performance in the same conditions only few days apart with the only difference being men opponents vs women opponents - that may tell an interesting story, just hard numbers which would prove one side of the argument or the other. Mike?

I think this is a fair criticism.

The way fargorate works is it's based on who-beat-who, but also it's based on the ratings of the people who got beat.
So if I beat a 700-rated player, my rating will go up, but not as much as it would if I beat an 800-rated player.

Similarly, if a pro beats a 300 rated player, their rating may barely even move.

But of course we already know that who-beat-who is not enough. For example

-A beat B once
-B beat C once

Does that mean A always beats C? Of course not... one game could just be a fluke.
But if A beats B 60% of the time, out of hundreds of games... and B beats C 80% of the time, out of hundreds of games...
we can safely say player A is better than player C, even if they never matched up before.

So here's where there's a possible weakness comparing men and women.

We may have thousands of matches for Karen Corr, and thousands for Hunter Lombardo.
So on paper, we can say Karen plays like Hunter (around Fargo 720).
Then, if Simeng beats up Karen consistently, she deserves to be 60 points higher or whatever.

But for us to say with confidence that Simeng beats Hunter, we need to have no weaknesses in that long chain of
A beats B beats C beats D etc.

If any one of those "links" only has a handful of games vs. hunter or players at his speed, then the entire chain's ratings may be less accurate.

 

[BasementDweller]

I'm not convinced Simeng plays 780 level 10 Ball. I am convinced she plays 780 level 9 Ball on looser equipment with a template rack. The style of game she plays is impressive but there's a different skill set required to play 10 Ball or even 8 ball. Heck even bar table pool is a different challenge.

I would love to see the players ratings broken down by game type.

 

[BasementDweller]

I've mentioned this before I think...

Certain games provide more information on a player's true overall pool skill than other games do. On this spectrum 15 ball rotational could arguably be the game that provides the most info and a game like 3 ball -- would provide the least. So if FargoRate took a bunch of data on 3 ball and found out who the best 3 ball player was and then had them play SVB some 3 ball and they held their own -- it would mistakenly solidify our view of their OVERALL skill level. Based on what I have seen with my own two eyes, I think something similar is happening with loose tabled, template rack 9 Ball. The game just doesn't provide enough info.

I will continue to believe is until proven otherwise. This does not mean I don't think FargoRate is awesome, because I love it. It's just that what I'm seeing on the table is different than what these ratings are telling me.

 

[sbpoolleague]

I'm not convinced Simeng plays 780 level 10 Ball. I am convinced she plays 780 level 9 Ball on looser equipment with a template rack. The style of game she plays is impressive but there's a different skill set required to play 10 Ball or even 8 ball. Heck even bar table pool is a different challenge.

I would love to see the players ratings broken down by game type.

Fargo's strength is in its simplicity, which would be ruined by doing what you desire. Where does it end? Because if you break the ratings down by game type you might as well break them down by table size and type. Mike Page has explained ad nauseum that game type and table specs come out in the wash.

 

[KMRUNOUT]

I've mentioned this before I think...



Certain games provide more information on a player's true overall pool skill than other games do. On this spectrum 15 ball rotational could arguably be the game that provides the most info and a game like 3 ball -- would provide the least. So if FargoRate took a bunch of data on 3 ball and found out who the best 3 ball player was and then had them play SVB some 3 ball and they held their own -- it would mistakenly solidify our view of their OVERALL skill level. Based on what I have seen with my own two eyes, I think something similar is happening with loose tabled, template rack 9 Ball. The game just doesn't provide enough info.



I will continue to believe is until proven otherwise. This does not mean I don't think FargoRate is awesome, because I love it. It's just that what I'm seeing on the table is different than what these ratings are telling me.

Are you suggesting that the ratings would be different among men for template rack 9 ball vs 10 ball? Pretty sure Fargo says you're wrong about that. Mike may be able to say for certain.

KMRUNOUT


Sent from my iPhone using AzBilliards Forums

 

[nine_ball6970]

Are you suggesting that the ratings would be different among men for template rack 9 ball vs 10 ball? Pretty sure Fargo says you're wrong about that. Mike may be able to say for certain.

KMRUNOUT


Sent from my iPhone using AzBilliards Forums

With a 9 ball template and no break rules I saw Bergman break and run 22 racks total in 3 consecutive races to 9. That would be tough to fade even for Shane Van Boening.

 

[GideonF]

Are you suggesting that the ratings would be different among men for template rack 9 ball vs 10 ball? Pretty sure Fargo says you're wrong about that. Mike may be able to say for certain.

KMRUNOUT


Sent from my iPhone using AzBilliards Forums

I think I had a discussion on here with Mike about women and 10b and my recollection is that Mike acknowledged that the 10b break could be an issue in trying to compare women’s ratings (based almost exclusively on 9b) with men’s if they were to play 10b.

I know you said men, but wanted to make the point. And of course there is the fact that someone like Alex has a much better chance at 9b against an SVB or a Shaw than he does in 10b - because of his weaker break.

 

[JC]

I do believe format and table size make a difference. I played in a lagger's choice league and my rating was quite a bit higher for 8 ball than 9 and 10. 9 and 10 were pretty close to the same.

I beat a 700+ on a bar table 7-6 in 9 ball. I was talking to him the next day and he was telling me about a tournament which would be good money for guys our speed. Fargo has him rated around 120 points higher than me. I know I am not as good as him but the 120 point gap does not seem close to accurate.

Most players want their rating to be as high as possible due to ego and not cheating the system. Some people try to cheat the system by dumping in smaller events but overall I think most people try.

I think my rating is different sober vs drinking and the entry of the tournament makes a difference too. Only ones entered here are $125 entry which makes me nervous. I play same players in $10 tournaments and then get ran over in bigger ones. Not that they play better but I play worse. Fargo is only taking those big ones into account because smaller ones are not entered.

Rating definitely ebb and flow due to things like drinking. My Fargo went down 10 points last summer due to playing league when I was extra tired from being short handed at work and not winning a lot of games I could have with better motivation and concentration. It went back up when I played in the BCA event and drilled some players rated considerably higher. When I was not tired and more focused.

But all in all these swings were only 10 points or so which still makes the system exceptionally accurate.

I looked over all the players rated about the same as me in the Western BCA that I have played before which is a bunch and it passes the smell test too. These guy and I play pretty even.

JC

 

[marek]

On the question of "looking like a 790 player", I wonder how much of that is based on your own perception of how male 790 players would play. What I mean is a male player who plays 790 tends to play a lot of aggressive outs. Most women pros (Centeno excluded) tend to play more conservatively. In other words, are you basing this on things like "Mika would have gone for the out and instead she played safe like a 730 player would". But if she wins the rack she wins the rack as far as Fargo is concerned. Just curious as to your perception.

I base my opinion on players i have beaten at that very Eurotour in relation to their FR,also i lost to Ralf Souquet 8:9 there who is in the 780-790 range,also recently I played very close match with Klenti Kaci who is 800+ so I think i know how 790 game looks like,thats the default level of play I used for my comparison. Siming Chen displayed very solid positional play and break,also good safety play. But her potting was not that awesome so to speak,she missed some of the shots where she should have played safety but decided to go offense. Also she missed some of the kicks. I am not saying she CANT play at 790 level or even higher,i just say that she didnt show that at Klagenfurt mens Eurotour from what i saw.

 

[pt109]

Rating systems are rules of thumb....I think Fargorate is the best of them.

But we’re human beings, not robots...so there is a lot of factors involved in playing your game.
Horses are much less complicated, but if the racing form was consistent, gamblers
would have all the money, and racetracks would be broke.

 

[hang-the-9]

I'm not convinced Simeng plays 780 level 10 Ball. I am convinced she plays 780 level 9 Ball on looser equipment with a template rack. The style of game she plays is impressive but there's a different skill set required to play 10 Ball or even 8 ball. Heck even bar table pool is a different challenge.

I would love to see the players ratings broken down by game type.

Fargo is a mix of ALL the matches though, think of it as an all-around Derby City style 5 year long match between thousands of players playing 9,8 and 10 ball played on 7,8 and 9 footers. At the end, average out who won how much, and there is the rating. You can have 300 games with standard rack, 300 with a template, 300 on a bar table, etc...

As pt109 said above, it's a rule of thumb, not totally specific for every situation. Averages are funny that way.

 

[alphadog]

Rating systems are rules of thumb....I think Fargorate is the best of them.

But we’re human beings, not robots...so there is a lot of factors involved in playing your game.
Horses are much less complicated, but if the racing form was consistent, gamblers
would have all the money, and racetracks would be broke.

You were spot on till you brought up horseracing. That is not how the track operates. They will get their money:wink:

 

[alphadog]

Neither do I!!! If Fargo is so accurate, why are there still separate events for men and women? There should be one, POSSIBLY divided up by age, instead of multiple events for both with the prize money divided up so every winner gets less. When there is ONE event, I'll believe Fargo works. Talking about amateur events of course. JMHO.

Lyn

Really surprised by this post from you. Even if you play the same level as 127 20 year old kids are you going to be #128 to fill the field?
Some women dont want to play men. Some men don't want to play women. Me I think I will have another beer

 

[pt109]

You were spot on till you brought up horseracing. That is not how the track operates. They will get their money:wink:

You’re quite right...the track gets their rake...17% in my day.
....except for the very odd exception...I think it was the pacer, Brett Hanover....
...some tracks suspended win betting when he raced because they were losing money
paying out 5 cents on the dollar.

Correction...10 cents on the dollar for win, up here...5 cents on the dollar for place or show

 

[KMRUNOUT]

I think I had a discussion on here with Mike about women and 10b and my recollection is that Mike acknowledged that the 10b break could be an issue in trying to compare women’s ratings (based almost exclusively on 9b) with men’s if they were to play 10b.

I know you said men, but wanted to make the point. And of course there is the fact that someone like Alex has a much better chance at 9b against an SVB or a Shaw than he does in 10b - because of his weaker break.

Interesting. Yeah it would be great if the data were available to play around with. It would also be great if the data were available to view.

Hopefully the next evolution of Fargorate will be an improved server with a wide array of search functions. Search by: name, partial name, game type, state, city, country, sex, opponent types, etc. Lots of potential there!

I know my rating went up initially because I had primarily 8 ball data, and I was a stronger 8 ball player. Now that I've played in more 9 and 10 ball events, I'm down...probably where I should be. To be fair, I think I was playing a bit better then. So who knows.

KMRUNOUT

 

[mvp]

Ok Fargo experts, real question: I'm a regular average player with no rating, I believe we all start around 525 or something, now I enter the derby city 9ball event and draw SVB 1st rd and get beat 9-0 9-2 or something like that. What does that do to my new rating? Does it go up considerably by entering a pro tournament vs league? Does it go down for losing badly? Some one please run through some real world scenarios for me to understand.

 

[JC]

Ok Fargo experts, real question: I'm a regular average player with no rating, I believe we all start around 525 or something, now I enter the derby city 9ball event and draw SVB 1st rd and get beat 9-0 9-2 or something like that. What does that do to my new rating? Does it go up considerably by entering a pro tournament vs league? Does it go down for losing badly? Some one please run through some real world scenarios for me to understand.

If you lose 9-2 that's about the expected result. 9-1 isn't far off either.

Your rating has some shock absorber built into it. You don't move very fast either direction.

 

[BasementDweller]

Are you suggesting that the ratings would be different among men for template rack 9 ball vs 10 ball? Pretty sure Fargo says you're wrong about that. Mike may be able to say for certain.

KMRUNOUT


Sent from my iPhone using AzBilliards Forums

I think so but it's more confusing with the men because they play so many different games. I do think if 9 ball (as I described it) was the only game they played you would see a player like Corey Deuel jump up several points. Also, that version of the game just isn't challenging enough for the top dogs to separate their true skill level (think of my 3 ball example). Which it looks like Chen has reached this level at this game.

With a 9 ball template and no break rules I saw Bergman break and run 22 racks total in 3 consecutive races to 9. That would be tough to fade even for Shane Van Boening.

Exactly....Now if that was the only game Bergman played and him and Shane played in order for Bergman to get his Fargo Rating coupled with all the other players he would most likely do just fine. Maybe even beat Shane.

I think I had a discussion on here with Mike about women and 10b and my recollection is that Mike acknowledged that the 10b break could be an issue in trying to compare women’s ratings (based almost exclusively on 9b) with men’s if they were to play 10b.

I know you said men, but wanted to make the point. And of course there is the fact that someone like Alex has a much better chance at 9b against an SVB or a Shaw than he does in 10b - because of his weaker break.

But it's not just the break. In this easy version of 9 ball, players are really playing 7 or 8 ball. They rarely have any clusters to deal with and safety play is very elementary. This applies to the majority of these types of matches that I've watched -- both men and women. The game is sooooo much simpler than old school 9 ball, 10 Ball, and even 8 ball.

 

[BasementDweller]

Also since Bergman was mentioned...

He and Chen are right next to each other in regards to their Fargo Rating. If anybody thinks they have about the same overall skill level -- they're crazy.

 

[BasementDweller]

Last point...

I think the problem is where does the coupling take place?

If you're a bar table monster and you get your data coupled with everybody else by playing Johnny Archer on a bar table, never having to leave your home turf -- your rating my not indicate your true skill level. That's what I think is happening with some of these women.