Buffalo's 1 Pocket Calcutta $$

Fantastic post.

Am I reading this correctly? ... that if Gorst was sold under value, and had sold at your projected "real value," he would need to win the event to have a net positive, and finishing second would be a break-even proposition (within a few hundred dollars, I suppose, given that if he sold for more the total payouts would be slightly different).
yes, without any specialist adjustments, his 850 rating is so much higher than everyone else that he would be expected to finish in the top 2 about half the time on average. He is predicted to have about a 1/3 chance to win the event and generate the large payday that would justify his high value.

Buffalo's 1 Pocket Calcutta $$

Using base fargo ratings, a simulation of 100,000 events shows the following expected values vs. actual cost for the top 20 rated players:

View attachment 907166

Chohan (+23k), Gomez (+21k), Lunda (+12k), and Hall (+10k) were the most overpriced compared to their ratings, while Teutscher (-22k), Gorst (-18k), Garcia (-8k) and Magi (-7k) were the most underpriced.

If you give extra rating points to the players listed in this thread as specialists (50 for Chohan, Gomez, Hall, Lunda and 25 for Roberts, Compton), then the value matrix changes considerably.

View attachment 907167

Now there are only two five-figure discrepancies, for Teutscher (-15k) and Morra (+14k). So overall the Calcutta seems to have been priced pretty well if you believe those adjustments, which is what you'd expect for the kind of informed money flying around in this setting.
Fantastic post.

Am I reading this correctly? ... that if Gorst was sold under value, and had sold at your projected "real value," he would need to win the event to have a net positive, and finishing second would be a break-even proposition (within a few hundred dollars, I suppose, given that if he sold for more the total payouts would be slightly different).

Dynasphere becomes the official ball set for Matchroom WNT - Multi-year partnership

Holstein, we rescued it when he was 4, now a little over 5.
Sort of a funny name, we thought of changing his name but it grew on us.View attachment 907148View attachment 907149

it's a royal name here in northern europe. in sweden we had kings and queens of the holstein line. which in turn got their name from the german region close to denmark.

very cute dog.

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