SVB to Kick Off High Run Attempts

[iba7467]

What separates a 300 ball runner from a 600 ball runner? I think at that level it’s much less about technical skill (Shane, Ruslan, all these guys have that in spades) and purely a feat of extreme stamina/focus. In one of Schmidt’s videos he talks about knowing when to treat some shots as easy and just knock them in, while conserving your mental energy for tougher shots — he seems to have mastered the mental side of the high run as much as the technical. Hopefully Shane can dig deep and post a monster number.

Long post, but I like math and pool.

Attempts is the only thing separating them. Another person already mentioned flipping coins (i.e. even odds taken) will eventually hit any number of consecutive outcomes if attempted enough times. For example, if you flip a coin one billion times it should come up heads 30 times in a row.

Using Shane's runs the first day, we can figure this out statistically. They did not publish every run, so we have to estimate the average. He had 7 runs over 90. Even assuming he made no balls on the other attempts, this is an average of 60 balls. If he cleared just one rack the average goes to 70. That is conservative. This would mean that he has an even chance to run 70 balls (again a conservative estimate). Let's look at how this works out in odds/attempts using math rather than guessing/opinions:

Every 4 attempts he should run 140 (Shane ran >140 in 4 out of 18)
Every 8 attempts he should run over 210 (he ran >210 in 2 out of 18)

The small sample size and outcomes seem to support the idea that this is a normal population of events. If 70 is the average, then Shane should break 630 after 512 attempts. The only remaining questions are whether his average might actually be higher than 70 and whether he will attempt it enough times.

 

[iusedtoberich]

Is there a direct link and timestamp on the BC QA session? I poked around and scrubbed through a few videos briefly and could not find it. Thanks.

 

[Brookeland Bill]

I find it difficult to criticize an athlete attempting to excel or break a record. So far 19 pages of comments most of which add nothing to the conversation other than to promote speculation or doubt.

 

[lfigueroa]

What separates a 300 ball runner from a 600 ball runner? I think at that level it’s much less about technical skill (Shane, Ruslan, all these guys have that in spades) and purely a feat of extreme stamina/focus. In one of Schmidt’s videos he talks about knowing when to treat some shots as easy and just knock them in, while conserving your mental energy for tougher shots — he seems to have mastered the mental side of the high run as much as the technical. Hopefully Shane can dig deep and post a monster number.

My personal opinion is that it is not only a matter of technical skill but also knowledge about the way to run the balls to maximize the likelihood of pocketing the balls AND getting exactly the position you need to continue your run.

And to a certain degree there is also technical skill in working the CB and deep knowledge of combos and caroms that you're not as likely to have gained playing 9ball. Bumping balls around with precision is another skill straight pool players acquire. I would suggest that 14.1 players, who have studied the game and seen thousands and thousands of these kinds of situations, know the better path to take than someone more familiar with 9ball.

Lou Figueroa

 

[lfigueroa]

We watched some at the pool hall this evening, and all had a good laugh at BC avoiding even saying the BCA or John Schmidt's name, but taking as gospel any off-hand comment from old-time players of the great runs they think they made. .

It is interesting watching SVB run racks, and i hope he does well. There was mention of statistics being published, and it will be interesting to see the magnitude of all SVB's runs plotted as a function of time, with duration of breaks etc.. I'm curious how stretches of 'hot streaks' and 'cold streaks' will play out, and how fatigue and luck of the break will show up.

From the Facebook page, it looks like there are five videos on Day 1, totalling about 8.5 hours?? Are there any stats of how many attempts he made, how many racks he played, etc.?

Don't know for sure but I think they may be coming.

Lou Figueroa

 

[lfigueroa]

I thought the same thing as he rattled off all of the people who ran 700 or more back in the day and then just stopped. The funny thing is I think he’s right. Obviously I can’t know how many they ran before they stopped, but I did hear firsthand from the owner of the room where Mosconi ran his 526 that no one really ever tried for long runs. It just wasn’t a thing anyone did. But for once I agree with the glue guy that the longer this goes without beating the record of 626 the more impressive JS’s run actually is. Then again we are just two days into this great event amd we haven’t even seen any of the true blue 14.1 player hit the table yet. I’m sure there’s plenty of guys looking at their schedules and chomping at the bit to get over there and give it their shot.

Every time a new player hits the table I hope Lou starts a new thread so we can start this all over again.

That is my intention -- I didn't want to start another thread on SVB so as to avoid confusion.

When Ruslan starts up I'll start a new thread and we can continue the party.

Lou Figueroa

 

[lfigueroa]

Was that Bobby on stream who said they would only be inviting players who have won a WPA sanctioned World title?

That made me chuckle a bit, since the first player that got invited was Shane.

I believe the standard is: won a world championship -- I'm not sure whether BC is specifying WPA sanctioned.

Lou Figueroa

 

[lfigueroa]

Is there a direct link and timestamp on the BC QA session? I poked around and scrubbed through a few videos briefly and could not find it. Thanks.

I believe the Q & A session got dropped because SVB wanted to start earlier than we originally thought.

Lou Figueroa

 

[realkingcobra]

I think, say, if someone were to run 700 at our event, there will be enough documentation that we won't have to discredit anything.

Lou Figueroa

Yet you deny the credibility of JS running 626 even though there was witnesses and it was recorded on video. You bring no credibility to this sport when you deny the records of others even when witnessed as facts, yet you'd support rumors of 700+ runs with no facts to back them up as being credible. I'm actually shocked you recognize Willie's record run if 526 balls because you wasn't there to witness it in person, wow!

 

[measureman]

A little known fact is that Chuck Norris was an excellent pool player.
He was on a run of 1028 balls and had to stop because the table mechanic wanted to put the rails back on the table.

 

[skogstokig]

Let's imagine a hard break shot has a 5% chance of scratching. That seems pretty reasonable for the usual Hohmann-esque draw break that goes back down to the far rail. To get to 627 balls, the player needs to make 44 successful breaks. The chances of performing 44 consecutive breaks without scratching? 10%. And that's before considering that the player may not have a clear shot after a non-scratched break.

If the player has a 2% chance of scratching then the math starts looking a lot more manageable (41% chance of not scratching in 44 consecutive breaks).

there's definitely something to this, although the assumed scratch percentage may be too high. but it would be interesting to calculate the scratch risk of the pro players who utilizes that break. to win a race to 125 with your numbers, thorsten would have a 34% scratch risk, and i don't think that's what i've been seeing over the years.

 

[realkingcobra]

A little known fact is that Chuck Norris was an excellent pool player.
He was on a run of 1028 balls and had to stop because the table mechanic wanted to put the rails back on the table.

That's because it was clear the pockets were so big he couldn't miss a ball

 

[BeiberLvr]

I believe the standard is: won a world championship -- I'm not sure whether BC is specifying WPA sanctioned.

Lou Figueroa

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=361568619098368

14:15 he talks about the qualifications for the players

1. Positive attitude
2. Has to have won a world title in some form of pool, and clarifies a WPA sanctioned title.

He clarifies this again at around 34:30 when he is talking about Ruslan playing next week.

 

[JusticeNJ]

That's because it was clear the pockets were so big he couldn't miss a ball

Chuck Norris ran 627 on a billiard table.

 

[BasementDweller]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=361568619098368

14:15 he talks about the qualifications for the players

1. Positive attitude
2. Has to have won a world title in some form of pool, and cldarifies a WPA sanctioned title.

He clarifies this again at around 34:30 when he is talking about Ruslan playing next week.

I think Lou may need to have a PR convo with Bobby. I tried to point out to Bobby that SVB hasn't won a WPA sanctioned WC, but he wasn't hearing it. I didn't want to push the point as I didn't want to get banned as that was BC's consistent theme. He did mention Shane winning the World Pool Masters as if that's a WC. The funny part, I'm almost certain he came up with this disqualifier to keep John from participating, not realizing he was actually disqualifying Shane.

Hate to break it to you guys but if SVB breaks the record now -- it won't even count because he's not even qualified to participate.

 

[skip100]

I think Lou may need to have a PR convo with Bobby. I tried to point out to Bobby that SVB hasn't won a WPA sanctioned WC, but he wasn't hearing it. I didn't want to push the point as I didn't want to get banned as that was BC's consistent theme. He did mention Shane winning the World Pool Masters as if that's a WC. The funny part, I'm almost certain he came up with this disqualifier to keep John from participating, not realizing he was actually disqualifying Shane.

Hate to break it to you guys but if SVB breaks the record now -- it won't even count because he's not even qualified to participate.

These guys have been unrepentant trolls and naysayers about the 626 for two years and counting, I don't think any of us should feel particularly sorry for them about the constant negativity they have dished out starting to boomerang back on them.

 

[BasementDweller]

Hopefully the next guy has a positive attitude. I would hate for someone to run 627 balls and then have their run called into question because they have an ambivalent attitude.

 

[BasementDweller]

Long post, but I like math and pool.

Attempts is the only thing separating them. Another person already mentioned flipping coins (i.e. even odds taken) will eventually hit any number of consecutive outcomes if attempted enough times. For example, if you flip a coin one billion times it should come up heads 30 times in a row.

Using Shane's runs the first day, we can figure this out statistically. They did not publish every run, so we have to estimate the average. He had 7 runs over 90. Even assuming he made no balls on the other attempts, this is an average of 60 balls. If he cleared just one rack the average goes to 70. That is conservative. This would mean that he has an even chance to run 70 balls (again a conservative estimate). Let's look at how this works out in odds/attempts using math rather than guessing/opinions:

Every 4 attempts he should run 140 (Shane ran >140 in 4 out of 18)
Every 8 attempts he should run over 210 (he ran >210 in 2 out of 18)

The small sample size and outcomes seem to support the idea that this is a normal population of events. If 70 is the average, then Shane should break 630 after 512 attempts. The only remaining questions are whether his average might actually be higher than 70 and whether he will attempt it enough times.

I think basic math games overlook the psychological toll of failure. Sure, just simple math can get a great player there on paper, but what happens to that player when he comes up short of what will surely become the equivalent of the pinnacle of Mt Everest? Not once, but dozens of times, and in front of the world. The pressure will compound and the paper gets thrown in the trash.

This isn't math people, it's pool.

 

[lfigueroa]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=361568619098368

14:15 he talks about the qualifications for the players

1. Positive attitude
2. Has to have won a world title in some form of pool, and clarifies a WPA sanctioned title.

He clarifies this again at around 34:30 when he is talking about Ruslan playing next week.

That’s not exactly what he said.

At the 14:00 he prefaced it with: for the first fleet of players. At the 34:00 he says: for the time being. So right now he wants to go with world champions and later on who knows.

Lou Figueroa

 

[lfigueroa]

These guys have been unrepentant trolls and naysayers about the 626 for two years and counting, I don't think any of us should feel particularly sorry for them about the constant negativity they have dished out starting to boomerang back on them.

I’d say, just from comments and “Likes” in this thread, things are going pretty well.

And on the FB page we had over 12,000 viewers to watch Shane. So I’ll take your comments with those facts in mind.

Lou Figueroa